Top Traders Unplugged

The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow grind reshaping productivity, debt, currencies, and political stability. From dollar regime risk to state capitalism, from market concentration to commodity repricing, the discussion moves beyond headlines to structural fault lines. Is gold signaling debasement? Can the U.S. sustain its debt path? Does AI lift productivity or hollow it out? Rather than predict collapse, Jakobsen outlines a drawn-out transition where capital reallocates, volatility hides beneath the surface, and political systems are tested long before markets finally react.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Steen on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:38 - Introducing Steen Jakobsen
03:45 - From trading floors to outrageous predictions
06:32 - Dollar hedging and regime shift signals
08:06 - Davos as a macro...

Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a deeper debate about model design, short versus long horizon signals, and whether innovation in liquid alternatives serves investors or sales desks. From AI disruption to product engineering and allocator behavior, this episode explores where systematic strategies truly create value and where structural incentives distort outcomes. In a changing macro regime, clarity of purpose may matter more than ever.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introducing the Systematic Investor series
01:17 - AI disruption and systematic investing
06:52 - The shifting perception of US risk
09:21 - Winter Olympics and market metaphors
12:59 - Hedge funds versus private equity
19:23 - 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation
22:17 - Why CTAs did not fully capture gold
29:48 - Short term versus long term trend models
35:27 - Letting risk run versus investor palatability
44:43 - The problem with liquid alternatives
51:21 - Product design versus fiduciary duty
59:06 - QIS, innovation and investor sophistication
01:04:41 - Model risk and the myth of risk premia
01:10:51 - Hopes for a trending year ahead
Copyright © 2025 – CMC

A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capital becomes a policy tool. The conversation moves from China’s exported deflation to Europe’s structural constraints, then into America’s strategy of attracting investment with tariff leverage. Beneath it all sits a political question: what happens if the governing coalition fractures ahead of the midterms. Harnett argues that is the moment the dollar turns from anchor to risk.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Ian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - The gray swan: political fracture and the point to sell the dollar
00:37 - Show intro and risk disclaimer
01:33 - Setting the frame: global macro, geopolitics, and regime change
04:34 - The new regime: inflation risk and the stock-bond relationship breaking
06:39 - Structural inflation drivers: deglobalization, trade weaponization, China’s deflation export
09:14 - Capital as a battleground: surcharges, controls, and Europe’s capital markets problem
12:02 - Europe’s catalyst problem: why it may take a crisis to build a true safe asset
14:44 - America’s playbook: inbound capital, tariff bargaining, and “neo-royalism”
18:32...

Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series
03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals
04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework
10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction
12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets
16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse
22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals
24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions
31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making
34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update
37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL
41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability
45:13 - MAN Group paper...

Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge funds, and applied AI, Ben explains why stories, not data, increasingly drive outcomes in modern markets. The conversation spans unstructured data, inference, common knowledge, and the mechanics of narrative momentum. Together, they examine consumer expectations, inflation silence, geopolitical signaling, and the slow shift away from US dominance. What emerges is a framework for understanding markets as reflexive systems, where perception often matters more than reality.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction to U Got Options and the trading floor setting
02:18 - Ben Hunt’s background and Epsilon Theory origins
04:11 - Markets as the ultimate multiplayer game
06:15 - Inference, unstructured data, and narrative analysis
08:18 - Why sentiment and word counts miss the real signal
11:16 - Mapping meaning and truthy stories
15:00 - LLMs as operating systems, not oracles
18:01 - Giving money back and when models stop working
21:16 - Applying narrative tools beyond markets
24:10 - Consumer weakness versus bullish expectations
30:43 - Inflation, recession, and why markets do not care
33:29 - Dormant stories and volatility discovery
34:26 -