Host Andrew Walker delivers his November ramblings with four key themes. He kicks things off with a story about craps in Vegas to illustrate how early wins in investing can falsely reinforce flawed strategies. Andrew also explores the mental traps of buying stocks he initially passed on, offers cautious commentary on shorting the so-called "AI bubble," and reflects on why trusting management projections and NAV estimates often ends in disappointment. With a new baby on the way, Andrew signs off with personal updates and an open invitation for listeners to reach out and discuss these topics further._________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast intro and disclaimer[00:02:05] Wins lure into false security[00:12:45] Passed stocks drop, then buy[00:20:00] Shorting AI bubble discussed[00:26:20] Trusting management and NAV[00:28:40] Final thoughts and baby updateLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
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29:23
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29:23
Shining a light on Golden Entertainment's "wealth transfer" $GDEN
On the heels of sending an open letter to the Golden Entertainment's (GDEN; disclosure: long) board, host Andrew Walker dives deeper into Golden's take private deal and why he believes it transfers ~$300m of value from minority shareholders to insiders.Open letter to GDEN board: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/an-open-letter-to-the-golden-entertainment___________________________________________________________[00:00:02] Intro to special episode[00:03:26] Comparison to Louvre heist[00:04:20] Smoking guns and IR site change[00:07:35] Sale leaseback structure details[00:09:15] Valuation analysis and critique[00:13:30] Everbay letter and valuation math[00:16:45] Management buyout vs. fair value[00:19:00] Critique of go-shop process[00:21:10] Regulatory hurdles for go-shop[00:23:40] Call for fair deal structure[00:24:50] Closing thoughts and disclaimerLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
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25:34
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25:34
Chadd Garcia breaks down WaterBridge's post-IPO value creation story $WBI
Chadd Garcia joins the five timers club and talks about his investment thesis for WaterBridge (WBI). WaterBridge is a recent IPO that manages water from oil drilling, largely in the Permian Basin. Chadd's spent a lot of time on oil services and infrastructure, and he breaks down how this investment relates to prior investments in LandBridge, Texas Pacific, and Secure. He also talks about the opportunity for growth and pricing power at WaterBridge.__________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast intro and Chad returns[00:02:24] WaterBridge’s core operations explained[00:04:41] Pipelines and disposal network details[00:06:03] Missed waste parallels in analysis[00:10:52] Valuation setup and contract pricing[00:13:04] 2025 EBITDA forecast discussed[00:14:45] Scalability from current infrastructure[00:15:37] Infrastructure ROICs and economics[00:17:33] Land ownership and strategic value[00:19:05] WaterBridge vs. LandBridge relationship[00:22:25] Why Devon partners with WaterBridge[00:27:35] Sponsor structure and conflict resolution[00:29:30] Regulatory risk and permitting update[00:33:39] Permian basin long-term outlook[00:35:10] Increasing water cuts impact volumes[00:36:41] Oil price sensitivity and volume trends[00:38:03] Organic growth via MVC contracts[00:39:11] Maintenance capex benchmarking[00:41:40] Capital allocation and future returns[00:42:31] Waste comps and multiple discussion[00:45:49] Terminal value and ROIC comparisons[00:47:57] Key risks: spills and short reports[00:49:12] Environmental downside vs. oil spills[00:51:25] Short reports and perceived conflicts[00:52:21] Why WaterBridge and LandBridge are separate[00:53:08] Investor day importance and growth[00:54:10] Chad’s visibility helps spread thesis[00:56:54] Housing workers for Texas data center boomLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
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55:47
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55:47
Gymkhana Partners' Andrei Stetsenko on Maharashtra Scooters and Indian Holdcos
Andrei Stetsenko from Gymkhana Partners explores the investment case for Indian holdcos in general and Maharashtra Scooters in particular. Andrei outlines why he isn't just looking for a discount to NAV; he talks about how he breaks down the underlying NAV and incentives of the key players when assessing an Indian holdco, and how he believes the control of the Bajaj Group can create long term value.Gymkhana Partners website: www.gymkhanapartners.comGymkhana's Q3 letter: https://www.gymkhanapartners.com/investor-letters/gymkhana-partners-q3-2025-quarterly-letterPost on financialization of Indian savings: https://www.gymkhanapartners.com/dispatches/the-equitization-of-indian-savingsDoug's Alphasense webinar: ______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:02:57] Indian holdcos and Bajaj group[00:05:47] Maharashtra Scooter NAV breakdown[00:06:45] Growth prospects in Bajaj firms[00:09:03] Insurance and lending discipline[00:12:45] Risks of investing abroad[00:15:25] India research and diligence[00:17:03] India-dedicated fund strategy[00:19:08] India’s economic transformation[00:22:20] Attractive Indian holdcos overview[00:25:36] Holdco incentive and structure[00:28:50] SEBI reforms and catalysts[00:29:41] Parallels with Japan’s reforms[00:32:58] Professionalization and buyback signs[00:33:46] Shareholder alignment and liquidity[00:36:48] Family dynamics and governance[00:39:23] NAV reliability and fundamentals[00:42:03] Buybacks, dividends, and hurdles[00:43:59] Governance: India vs US[00:47:06] Potential unlock mechanisms[00:49:56] Past performance and future growth[00:52:33] Closing thoughts and blog postsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
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55:24
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55:24
All things AI, Power, and Corporate Governance with SemiAnalysis's Doug O'Laughlin
Doug O’Loughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and SemiAnalysis returns to the podcast in to dive into all things AI, Power, and Corporate Governance. On the AI side, they discuss where we are in the cycle, if AI is a bubble, and what will drive the next leg of growth. On the corporate governance side, they discuss using signals like off-cycle PSU grants to reflexive incentive structures to find investments, as well as diving into some topical examples. (PS- Doug’s last appearance was podcast #166 on AppLovin $APP, which doubles as the best performing pitch in YAVP history).LinksDoug's AppLovin $APP podcast appearanceDoug's Webinar with AlphaSenseFabricatated Knowledge: ____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast intro and Doug’s background[00:02:36] AI sector partying vs. value sadness[00:04:06] AI’s capital cycle and bubble setup[00:07:04] Oracle’s shift to debt-fueled capex[00:09:45] Why capital intensity changes multiples[00:11:48] TPU vs. Nvidia: a real challenger[00:13:07] Google’s evolving TPU go-to-market[00:16:02] AI scaling walls and RL progress[00:18:24] Reinforcement learning and Dota AI[00:20:15] Token economics and GPU monetization[00:22:02] OpenAI, profitability, and token resale[00:24:00] AI’s deflationary impact and services[00:26:51] Revisiting the power bottleneck thesis[00:27:44] Power grid constraints and worker shortages[00:31:33] Industrials benefiting from AI buildout[00:32:22] Generalist vs. specialist investor gaps[00:33:47] Specialist traps in relative valuation[00:36:36] Doug’s obsession with board behavior[00:38:19] Do boards game investors with PSUs?[00:41:12] Reflexive incentives at Broadcom example[00:42:17] Mimification and pump incentives at Opendoor[00:44:46] Performance incentives vs. job requirements[00:46:19] Biotech boards failing shareholder alignment[00:46:42] PSU timing around Target Hospitality’s drop[00:52:09] ICE contracts and bed shortage opportunity[00:56:54] Housing workers for Texas data center boomLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Yet Another Value Podcast is a new podcast from Andrew Walker, the founder of yetanothervalueblog.com/. We interview top investors and dive deep into stocks and companies they are currently working on and investing in. While nothing on this channel is investing advice and everyone should do their own diligence, our goal is to frequently feature edgy and actionable value and/or event driven ideas.
Please see our legal and disclaimer at: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
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