Yet Another Value Podcast

Investing is a game of arrogance. The base rate when you buy any stock is that it just does the market return, so every position you hold is a bet that you know something the market doesn't. My July ramble is really one question asked five ways: when do you look in the mirror and admit you were wrong? I walk through my three-year rule on a single name (if it has gone nowhere for three years, the problem is probably you, not the market), and the harder version, a value fund that has underperformed for a decade.
I use myself as the example. I saw AI inflecting in late 2024 and didn't pull the trigger, because I'm a value and event guy and I didn't see the bet, and a lot of those names then went on a generational run. Was that discipline or a mental block? From there I get into why you're effectively short Nvidia if you don't own it and you're benchmarked to the S&P, the Fundsmith letter walking back its principles as the cautionary tale on both sides, my own April 2025 book (the net-cash biotech and the Nebius trade I sold way too early), and why London increasingly trades like an emerging market: a takeover wave, private value miles above public value, and the frustration of owning cheap names that only move if someone buys the whole company.
This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/yav. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities, with 20+ years of statements, ratios, filings, segments and KPIs, a web-based terminal, and a self-serve API that plugs real-time fundamental data straight into Claude and ChatGPT. Use fiscal.ai/yav for 15% off.
Chapters:
(0:00) Intro and episode preview
(2:50) Sponsor: fiscal.ai
(4:16) Investing is a game of arrogance: beating the base rate
(6:18) The three-year rule, and when a whole strategy has underperformed
(9:19) Missing the AI trade: discipline, mental block, and the Fundsmith letter
(14:42) If you don't own Nvidia, you're short it
(16:46) My April 2025 book: Nebius, net-cash biotech, and selling winners too early
(21:47) Why London trades like an emerging market: takeouts and dead stocks
(27:08) Wrap
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Light & Wonder ($LNW) is one of three companies in the slot machine oligopoly, with 70%+ recurring revenue, and it trades at 7-8x EBITDA while Aristocrat, its closest peer and arguably its slower-growing twin, trades at roughly double that. Zach Buckley thinks the market is wrong on almost every count: the stock has traded like a SaaS chart on AI fears even though slot content has almost no AI exposure, the Street doesn't believe 2028 targets from a management team that already hit the last three-year guide it set, and the soft first half is a game-launch timing story (Aristocrat launched in H1, Light & Wonder's slate lands in H2), not share loss. Zach has sized this the largest he's ever sized anything, and you can hear it.
I push back where I can: whether Caesars could ever build its own boxes (Zach: Marriott doesn't build elevators), why management is paying down debt to appease Australian shareholders instead of murdering the share count at these prices, what the Dragon Train settlement really cost them, and SciPlay's genuine AI risk. We also cover the move to a sole Australian listing, the Grover charitable-gaming acquisition at ~7.5x EBITDA, and what would actually break the thesis.
This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense: https://alpha-sense.com/yavp. Most AI tools are very good at sounding right, but can you trace the answer back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove it? AlphaSense's AI platform is built for exactly that: over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls, with every answer linked back to an exact, verifiable source. See it for yourself with a free trial at https://alpha-sense.com/yavp.
Chapters:
(00:00:05) Introducing Light & Wonder
(00:03:09) Light & Wonder's transformation
(00:05:57) Australian listing creates opportunity
(00:08:36) Recurring revenue business model
(00:09:39) Why game quality matters
(00:11:45) Business quality meets valuation
(00:13:31) Explaining Aristocrat's valuation premium
(00:17:15) AI offers productivity upside
(00:19:08) SciPlay faces greater AI risk
(00:21:20) Barriers protect game development
(00:23:56) Casinos avoid vertical integration
(00:29:05) Why Australia made sense
(00:30:25) Dragon Train litigation explained
(00:32:14) Assessing lingering litigation impact
(00:34:11) Why investors doubt targets
(00:36:04) Short-termism drives investor skepticism
(00:39:41) Balancing buybacks and deleveraging
(00:42:39) Grover acquisition adds growth
(00:43:55) Electronic pull tabs explained
(00:47:14) What could break thesis
(00:50:41) AI fears create opportunities
(00:52:32) Zach summarizes investment thesis
Zach Buckley / Buckley Capital Partners: https://www.buckleycapitalpartners.com/
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

United Parks ($PRKS) owns SeaWorld and Busch Gardens, trades around 8x EBITDA with an 8%+ unlevered cash yield, and is plowing basically 100% of free cash flow into buybacks while Hill Path sits on roughly 60% of the stock. Adjust for passive holders and effective short interest lands somewhere near 80% of float; Bloomberg's short squeeze score is 93 out of 100. Hawkins Entrekin (Valyte, and the guy who pitched Vornado on this podcast right at the bottom of New York real estate) thinks you're buying irreplaceable hard assets below replacement cost, with a squeeze as the cherry on top. His fair value: low $80s against a stock in the high $40s.
It's catnip to me, which is exactly why I push back. EBITDA fell from roughly $700 million to $600 million in an inflationary environment; is that Epic Universe's one-time supply hit, or a sign SeaWorld is the industry's swing capacity? Management has blamed weather in 15 of the last 16 quarters (I counted). And when a 60% owner is pushing every dollar into buybacks while attendance sits 20% below the 2008 peak, you have to ask whether this is being run for long-term operations or just for the spreadsheet.
Hawkins' United Parks write-up: https://valyteresearch.substack.com/p/united-parks-and-resorts
The Trata call I used to prep: https://www.trata.com/prks
This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense: https://alpha-sense.com/yavp. Most AI tools are very good at sounding right, but can you trace the answer back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove it? AlphaSense is the AI platform built for that: over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls, with every answer linked back to an exact, verifiable source. Try a free trial at https://alpha-sense.com/yavp.
Chapters:
(00:00) Intro: everything I love in a stock, and why that scares me
(01:34) AlphaSense (sponsor)
(02:49) Welcome back Hawkins Entrekin
(03:41) What is United Parks?
(04:44) The short squeeze setup: ~80% of effective float
(05:50) A real estate lens on theme parks
(08:36) What are the shorts seeing?
(10:32) EBITDA went from $700M to $600M; why?
(12:01) Epic Universe and the new-supply explanation
(17:27) Weather excuses: 15 of the last 16 quarters
(19:44) Capex and the asset-stripping check
(24:08) The real estate angles (and OpCo/PropCo cold water)
(28:19) What's the excess land worth?
(30:34) Can you comp a theme park on NOI?
(32:13) Valuation: low-$80s fair value vs a high-$40s stock
(34:33) Why 8x when Blackstone paid 12-14x? Plus replacement cost
(40:45) Hill Path at 60%: squeeze, take-private, or sale?
(46:05) Attendance is down 20% from the 2008 peak
(48:47) The bulls have been early for three years
(56:58) What is Valyte?
(58:28) Seritage, Elme, and a hard stop
Hawkins Entrekin / Valyte: https://www.valytedata.com/
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Ryan Bunn (Reference Equity) has a public proposal for CBIZ ($CBZ): stop buying back stock at 9x earnings and restart the M&A flywheel that compounded revenue at 13%/year and took EBIT margins from 9% to 14% over the last decade. For someone like me who has always been a sucker for share buybacks, "stop the buybacks and issue equity" lands like a knife right in the gut, so I make him defend every piece of it.
We get into whether the $2.3B Marcum deal (the largest accounting acquisition ever, with the stock down ~70% since) deserves a mulligan, whether the multiple got crushed by 3.4x leverage or by AI headline fear, whether AI lets the Big Four come downmarket and eat CBIZ's middle-market lunch (or lets superstar producers hang their own flag), and whether long-term investors would really put primary equity onto the balance sheet at no discount. Ryan's math: the market prices credit risk, small 6-9x EBITDA bolt-ons restart the compounding machine, and a delevered, re-rated CBIZ has 100%+ upside.
Ryan's Restarting the Flywheel site (proposal + deck): https://cbizflywheel.com/
This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Most AI tools are very good at sounding right; the summary is clean, but can you trace it back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove the answer? AlphaSense owns the content (over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls) and the retrieval layer on top of it, so every answer links back to an exact, verifiable source. Try a free trial at https://alpha-sense.com/yavp
Chapters:
(0:00) Intro: an activist pitch to STOP the buybacks
(1:15) AlphaSense
(2:31) What is CBIZ ($CBZ)?
(5:01) Ryan's proposal: restart the M&A flywheel
(7:44) Buybacks at 9x earnings vs. getting back to M&A
(10:38) Post-Marcum, are there even deals left to do?
(12:52) The AI risk: offshoring and the Big Four coming downmarket
(19:24) Does AI let superstar accountants hang their own flag?
(23:41) The Marcum deal: mulligan or strategic masterstroke?
(28:59) Private equity competition and winner's curse
(31:38) Valuation: 9x free cash flow at 3.4x leverage
(40:00) Does delevering actually re-rate the stock?
(45:47) Management, the board, and alignment
(49:58) Why issue equity now? The FMC example
(56:57) Ryan's real ask: end the muddled capital allocation
(57:38) Wrap
Ryan Bunn / Reference Equity: https://cbizflywheel.com/
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Adam Wyden runs one of the most concentrated books I know, and he came on to make the case for two stocks the market has basically left for dead: Stagwell ($STGW) and Driven Brands ($DRVN). On Stagwell, his pitch is that this is not a dying ad agency but a marketing-services and data business compounding toward $700M of EBITDA by 2028, sitting at a 20%+ free cash flow yield because it came public through a no-fanfare reverse merger and carried a dual-class and TRA overhang that kept institutions out. On Driven, he thinks the sum of the parts (Collision, Autoglass, and a 50-year-old franchise stub around Take Five) is worth far more than a low-teens stock, and he has been loud enough about it that the company started disclosing numbers within 48 hours of one of his letters.
I push back on both. On Stagwell I keep coming back to the agency model itself: WPP, IPG and the rest have trailed the S&P for 20 years because the human capital walks out the door every night and takes the economics with it, and AI arguably makes that worse. On Driven I press him on why a business this cheap has stayed cheap for four years running, and whether the corporate cost and the leverage ever get fixed without a private-equity owner. Adam's answer, more or less: the market doesn't care until it cares, and the best money he has ever made is buying someone else's five-year pain right before the aha moment.
This episode is sponsored by fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/yav. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities and one of the leading data connectors for Claude and ChatGPT, so you can pipe real-time fundamental data straight into your LLM. I signed up with my own money to plug it into my Claude cowork setup: more than 20 years of statements, ratios, segments and KPIs, updated within minutes of earnings, not days. Use my link fiscal.ai/yav for 15% off.
Chapters:
(00:00) Intro: Adam Wyden and two names, Stagwell and Driven
(02:44) Stagwell $STGW: the bull case on a marketing-services roll-up
(05:00) Mark Penn and how modern Stagwell came together
(08:40) Does AI break the ad agency model?
(12:50) The data moat and Stagwell's agentic operating system
(19:00) Is Stagwell a jockey bet on Mark Penn?
(24:20) Free cash flow, buybacks, and a stock priced to die
(28:20) Undervalued for four years: what is the market missing?
(32:15) Adam's activist stake and the August 14th tease
(37:00) Driven Brands $DRVN: the auto aftermarket bull case
(41:30) EVs vs ICE and why the aftermarket keeps compounding
(45:20) Sum-of-the-parts: Collision, Autoglass, and the franchise stub
(51:30) Activism at Driven, Roark, and where this business belongs
(58:30) Closing: the AI losers that become AI winners
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/