The Road to Autonomy

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s California regulatory moat, Cybercab’s pending commercial launch and Uber’s series of supervised launches in Europe and Dubai.
In California, Waymo is completing 1.4 million fully autonomous rides per month, a 10X growth rate over two years. Additionally, the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) granted Waymo commercial driverless expansion authority across 40,000 square miles, covering roughly 25 million California residents and giving Waymo an estimated two-year regulatory moat over competitors.
Waymo also opened service to all riders in Houston, its 10th market, with San Antonio likely to follow, and launched the Zeekr-built Ojai to all riders across San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix while introducing its own custom silicon chip to boost compute performance and drive down vehicle costs.
While Waymo continues to scale, Tesla is preparing for a Cybercab commercial launch in Austin following first-responder training sessions with local fire departments. Then there is Uber, which is focused on expanding globally.
In Dubai, Baidu’s Apollo Go went live on the Uber app, allowing riders to explicitly select an autonomous ride or be assigned one when booking Comfort or UberX.
In London, Wayve and Uber launched early trip access using supervised Ford Mach-E vehicles, though debate remains over who will secure the critical Autonomous Passenger Service (APS) permit. Pony AI also touted its growing Uber partnership during earnings, though its planned European expansion faced scrutiny over ODD limitations and safety driver supervision.
In sidewalk delivery, Avride is expanding its autonomous campus delivery fleet to 1,000 bots across 25 universities this fall. Following its split from Uber, Serve Robotics quickly pivoted by cutting deals with DoorDash and Grubhub, expanding into San Jose and Washington, D.C., while promoting its Beacon platform to potentially disintermediate traditional delivery platforms for local restaurants.

Episode Chapters
00:00 Waymo Racks Up the Miles in California
07:02 Airports Matter, In California Permits Matter More
09:50 Waymo Opens Houston to All Riders, San Antonio Likely Next
13:34 Waymo Opens Ojai to All Riders
16:21 Waymo’s Declining Costs
19:28 New York City Does Not Want Robotaxis
21:28 The 100 Car Benchmark
25:05 Pony AI's European Expansion
28:09 Baidu Apollo Go Goes Live in Dubai
30:31 Wayve and Uber Launch Supervised in London. Who Gets the APS Permit?
36:17 Avride Expands Campus Delivery Bots
37:07 Serve Robotics Expands with DoorDash, Grubhub and Beacon
41:27 Next Week

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About The Road to Autonomy
The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.
Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.
Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

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See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Signals presented by KPMG, Grayson Brulte and Rob Grant discuss Tesla preparing to launch the steering wheel-free and pedal-free Cybercab in Austin, Waymo unlocking commercial driverless service across 18 California counties, and SoftBank leading a $200 million Series A in Gravis Robotics that values the company at $1 billion.
As Tesla prepares for the commercial launch of Cybercab in Austin, the company will most likely self-certify the Cybercab to the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, a path that carries no caps on production volume and, if NHTSA does not intervene, clears the way for Gigafactory Texas to produce more than 125,000 Cybercabs a year, creating a manufacturing moat no competitor can currently match.
While Tesla readies the Cybercab, the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) approved Waymo's Tier 2 advice letter authorizing paid driverless rides across 18 California counties from Sacramento to San Diego, covering roughly two-thirds of the state's population.
With Waymo currently operating 100% of the 1.4 million monthly driverless rides in the state and no other operator holding a driverless deployment permit, Waymo's regulatory lead in California is measured in years, though the CPUC's phased rollout framework may open a door for Zoox or Tesla to apply for the entire state at once.
As Waymo consolidates the Golden State, SoftBank led a $200 million Series A in ETH Zurich spin-out Gravis Robotics, the largest Series A in construction robotics history, valuing the company at approximately $1 billion. Gravis' retrofit system bolts onto legacy excavators from Caterpillar, Komatsu, Volvo and John Deere, and SoftBank is betting that monetizing the existing $1 trillion install base of heavy machinery through rental companies, rather than requiring fleet replacement, is a software-multiple opportunity and not an industrial hardware play.

Episode Chapters
0:00 KPMG Sponsor Introduction
01:50 Signal 1: Cybercab Launch is on the Horizon
39:06 Signal 2: Waymo's Golden State Robotaxi Monopoly
1:11:11 Signal 3: SoftBank's $200M Bet on Gravis Robotics

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About The Road to Autonomy
The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.
Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.
Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter
See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Zoox Las Vegas pricing, Waymo’s post-Uber divorce Phoenix expansion and WeRide saying the quiet part out loud, regulatory permits can create moats.
Zoox launched paid rides in Las Vegas with a $12 base fare, $1.50 per mile, and 40 cents per minute, premium pricing paired with 15 to 30 minute wait times and select destinations. Walt calls it a Disney ride, not a premium product, and once Waymo and Tesla enter the market, that pricing gets hard to defend, especially if wait times continue to be high.
Staying in Vegas, Waymo announced a dedicated pickup and drop-off zone with Allegiant Stadium while Zoox has a deal with the Sphere, which might cost riders a $40 drop-off fee, opening a new battleground in Vegas where every casino and venue deal becomes a potential competitive advantage.
Weeks after Waymo and Uber divorced in Phoenix, Waymo added 55 square miles of service area, increasing the total to 350 square miles. On the WeRide earnings call, management said the quiet part our loud, regulatory permits are an asset.
Over in Europe, OMEGA uncovered a Waymo incorporation in Zurich registered to Google’s largest engineering office outside the United States, one week after the president of Switzerland rode in a Waymo in Mountain View.
On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Uber and Wayve are preparing a supervised Tokyo launch with Nissan LEAF vehicles, with the word supervised buried in the last paragraph of the press release.

Episode Chapters
00:00 Zoox Launches Paid Rides in Las Vegas
07:19 Fleet Fragmentation and the Lyft Opportunity
11:24 Waymo's Dedicated Zone at Allegiant Stadium
19:16 Waymo Adds 55 Square Miles in Phoenix
21:07 Waymo's Upcoming European Expansion
24:06 WeRide Earnings
28:06 Mercedes, NVIDIA, and the Compute Question
31:44 Uber Serve Robotics Divorce
40:47 7,200 Waymo Vehicles
44:03 Foreign Autonomy Desk
47:56 Next Week

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About The Road to Autonomy
The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.
Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.
Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter
See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Signals presented by KPMG, Grayson Brulte and Rob Grant discuss Uber fully exiting its equity position in Serve Robotics as the delivery partnership ends, CaoCao launching robotaxi operations in Hangzhou, and Boeing offloading Wisk, SkyGrid and Insitu to Archer Aviation in a deal that trades equity for cash flow.
Uber recently liquidated its entire remaining stake in Serve Robotics, as Serve announced on their Q2 2026 earnings call that the company will not be renewing its delivery partnership when the contract expires in 2027, exposing the pitfalls of being reliant on a demand aggregation platform.
While Uber and Serve prepare to part ways, CaoCao launched public road testing without a safety driver in Hangzhou’s Binjiang District with a fleet of roughly 100 vehicles, backed by parent Geely’s manufacturing might and a purpose-built EvaCab robotaxi with a sub $35,000 BOM cost targeting 100,000 units by 2030.
As China’s robotaxi industry grows, Boeing exited autonomy by selling Wisk, SkyGrid and Insitu to Archer Aviation for a 19.75% equity stake, immediately re-anchoring Archer’s valuation on defense cash flow rather than eVTOL speculation while pushing autonomous certification down the line.

Episode Chapters
0:00 KPMG Sponsor Introduction
01:32 Signal 1: Uber and Serve Robotics Get Divorced
31:40 Signal 2: CaoCao Vertically Integrates Robotaxis
1:00:10 Signal 3: Boeing Exits Autonomy with Archer Aviation Deal

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About The Road to Autonomy
The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.
Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.
Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter
See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Uber’s Waymo hangover, Zoox launching paid rides in Las Vegas, the Teamsters suing California over driverless trucking, and NVIDIA’s Alpamayo 2 open model.
Uber is nursing a Waymo hangover. Revenue came in light on take rate, management finally owned the $10 billion autonomy spending number first reported by The Financial Times, and the stock sold back into the sixties as the autonomy overhang weighs on the story.
After 12 years, Zoox begins charging for rides in Las Vegas on August 10. An NHTSA filing surfaced by OMEGA reveals the catch, the vehicles cannot operate above 45 mph while average traffic out of Harry Reid International airport runs 55, complicating the airport unlock.
With 105 vehicles as of June across seven approved cities, pricing 20% to 40% above rideshare, and wait times stretching past an hour, Walt calls it tourism pricing for a Disney World attraction. Meanwhile, Waymo returned to freeways after a two-month pause, and OMEGA is picking up new Waymo corporate filings around the world.
Lucid burned over a billion dollars in the quarter but declared the Uber and Nuro robotaxi program a must-win project. The Teamsters sued the California DMV in Alameda Superior Court to repeal driverless trucking rules as autonomous trucking companies continue to rack up supervised miles in the state.
On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Wayve received a TfL license to carry paying passengers in London with safety drivers across 15 vehicles, but the APS permit is the asset that controls every relationship in the market.
If Baidu secures one, it holds a clear off-ramp from Uber and FreeNow by Lyft to launch Apollo Go on its own. Meanwhile, Pony AI is targeting 500 to 1,000 Gen4 robotrucks in mainland China with CATL over the next two to three years, with a hint of foreign ports expansion.

Episode Chapters
0:00 Uber's Waymo Hangover
4:52 Zoox Prepares to Go Paid in Vegas
12:19 Waymo Returns to Freeways
14:13 Uber, Nuro, Lucid Robotaxi Timeline
20:30 DoorDash and the Market for Autonomous Food Delivery
26:08 NVIDIA Alpamayo 2
32:22 The Teamsters sue the California DMV over Driverless Trucking Rules
35:50 Tesla's China Business Question
39:00 Foreign Autonomy Desk
45:35 Next Week

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About The Road to Autonomy
The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.
Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.
Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter
See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.