Global Trade Deciphered

Send us a textIn this special Christmas episode, host Justin Hayden Miller examines 2025's record-breaking global trade—surpassing $35 trillion—through the lens of Father Christmas and the challenges posed by Trump's tariffs, Arctic geopolitics, and climate change.Key TopicsTrump's tariffs and their impact on holiday imports, toys, and global supply chainsMelting Arctic ice opening new shipping routes (Northern Sea Route, Northwest Passage) amid rising US-Russia-China tensions and Trump's Greenland discussionsGeopolitical volatility from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East affecting energy and grain marketsResilience in global trade despite barriers, with insights on Brexit customs rules and air cargo logisticsOutlookA reflective year-end analysis on trade resilience, potential 2026 risks, and the evolving energy revolution.Track Santa's journey: NORADSanta.orgSubscribe to Global Trade Deciphered for expert insights on international trade policy, geopolitics, and economic trends. Happy holidays!If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow. *Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at [email protected] Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://bit.ly/PrivilegedDiscussions *Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Send us a textHow could the EU CBAM Carbon Border Tax 2026  reshape global trade, sparking US trade war risks and highlighting EU over-regulation? Essential listening for importers, exporters, and supply chain pros navigating emerging trends in green policy and international relations.Why CBAM Matters Now: Two major events this December 2025 could change how you import goods into Europe—discover the hidden bureaucracy behind "green" taxes.US NSS Critique: The 2025 US National Security Strategy slams EU regulatory suffocation—could it signal retaliatory tariffs and fractured alliances?CBAM Breakdown: From cement to hydrogen, learn how the world's first carbon border tax hits high-carbon imports starting January 1, 2026—what's the real cost?Carbon Leakage Trap: EU claims CBAM prevents offshoring emissions, but is it protectionism in disguise that disadvantages non-EU producers?Administrative Nightmare: Importers must declare embedded emissions or face sky-high defaults—could this expand to everyday items like washing machines?Trade War Sparks: Echoes of Canada's failed attempt—how might US criticisms of WTO violations lead to reciprocal actions and global supply chain chaos?Broader Impacts: Unpack how EU over-regulation stifles innovation and fuels tensions with China, India, and the US—your business at risk?Related Regulations: Ties to EU Batteries Regulation and more red tape—why this isn't just about carbon, but the future of free trade.Including:Game-changing events for EU importsUS NSS roasts EU bureaucracyWhat is CBAM really?Products hit hardestEnd of just declarations, start of taxesEmissions math decodedGreen policy or trade war trigger?Bureaucracy's hidden costsEU red tape expandsOutlook for global tradeand:Could CBAM ignite a US-EU trade clash?Why importers can't ignore emissions defaultsCBAM's potential to upend your supply chainCall to Action:Please share if CBAM affects your trade—rate/review on Apple Podcasts to boost visibility for global trade insights. #EUCbam #CarbonBorderTax2026 #USTradeWar #EUOverRegulation #GlobalTrade #ImportingToEurope #WTOIf you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow. *Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at [email protected] Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://bit.ly/PrivilegedDiscussions *Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Send us a textEpisode DescriptionThe UK just delivered its Autumn Budget 2025 – and it’s sending louder signals to global trade and geopolitics than most people realise.In this unscripted, coffee-accompanied episode, Justin Hayden Miller zooms out to explore the global trade and strategic implications of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ announcements – why the UK is rapidly becoming the world’s real-time economic laboratory, and what the rest of us should be watching for.Key global trade and policy signals discussed:“If you build here, Britain will back you” – the UK’s carrot version of Trump’s industrial-policy stickThe end of the £135 de minimis threshold: full customs duties and VAT on every imported parcel from March 2029 (yes, the same policy Trump is pushing in the US)Pay-per-mile road pricing for EVs from 2028 – and why it risks sending exactly the wrong green signalDefence spending heading to 2.6% of GDP by 2027 and Europe’s quiet pivot to a war economyPhasing out hotels for asylum seekers + the surprising question: will humanoid robots soon face immigration quotas?Why simultaneous reindustrialisation + export-led growth for every major economy is mathematically impossibleThis is not a budget line-item recap. It’s a strategic conversation about protectionism dressed in new clothes, the return of industrial policy, and the fast-changing intersection of trade, technology, and geopolitics.Essential listening for anyone involved in international supply chains, customs planning, EV strategy, geopolitical risk, or industrial policy – in any country.If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow. *Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at [email protected] Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://bit.ly/PrivilegedDiscussions *Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Send us a textCan Elon Musk be right about both of these at the same time?Collapsing birth rates are the biggest threat to civilisationAI + humanoid robots will make almost all human jobs obsolete in the next 10–20 yearsIf robots do all the work… why is he Elon Musk asking the world to have more babies? And what does this paradox mean for the future of corporations and global trade?- Elon Musk’s births and robot paradox - Global fertility collapse – the shocking numbers - Musk’s comments at the 2025 Saudi Investment Forum: “Work will be optional… money may become irrelevant”- Universal High Income and the real future problem - Mr Nelson’s 1980s prediction vs today’s self-checkout hell- Ronald Coase, zero transaction costs, and the coming death of the corporation - Electronic personhood for robots – the 2017 EU Parliament resolution - R2-D2- Could droids get bank accounts and become consumers? - Intra-firm trade and the blockchain future - The Tesla that does 0-100 mph in 2 seconds when the speed limit is 55 - What every company must do before the AI asteroid hits (McKinsey 2025) - Kodak, the East India Company… and the morning the multinational diesElon Musk | AI | Robotics | Optimus | Birth Rate Crisis | Fertility Collapse | Future of Work | Global Trade | Universal Basic Income | Transaction Costs | Corporate Death | Demographics | Automation | Tesla | Trade Policy | GeopoliticsHosted by Justin Hayden Miller – global trade advisor & strategist, former partner at a top-tier European law firm and former senior leader in Big-4 international trade and tax practices.If this episode made you think differently, please leave a quick 5-star rating — it’s the #1 way new listeners discover the show.Subscribe and stay ahead.If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow. *Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at [email protected] Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://bit.ly/PrivilegedDiscussions *Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Send us a textIn October 2025, the International Maritime Organization's (IMO’s) Net-Zero Framework—designed to introduce carbon levies on high-emission fuels and raise up to $10 billion annually for developing nations—was delayed by a 57-49 vote until October 2026.This episode examines:• The U.S. role in blocking the measures and reported use of diplomatic leverage• Saudi Arabia’s contrasting approach with economic incentives• China’s $18 billion investment in alternative-fuel shipyards and its vote alongside the U.S.• The current state of green-fuel technologies: LNG leakage risks, hydrogen supply challenges, ammonia toxicity, and early-stage nuclear options• Indirect military dimensions: low-emission propulsion for naval stealth and endurance, e.g. the US Virginia class (SSN-774 class) nuclear submarine • The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its potential ripple effects on high-carbon supply chains• A parallel from France’s delayed Crit’Air vehicle-emission schemeThe episode also includes clips of an an interview discussion between me and shipping expert Simon Ward, in May 2025, which somewhat predicted US IMO involvement and the result, some 6 months before it happened!Keywords: US China trade, shipping standoff, IMO blocked, levy blocked 2025, US China shipping, IMO $10B, green levy blocked, carbon tax shippingI’ll deliver the closing address at ENSM’s conference “When Geopolitics Intrudes on Global Maritime Trade” on 20 November in Le Havre. Join in person or online—details below.ENSM Conference – 20 November, Le HavreRegister: https://lnkd.in/e8tueJZXContact: [email protected] Sources:• UNCTAD – 80% of trade by sea• IMO MEPC 82 – vote details• Reuters – U.S. diplomatic tactics• The New York Times – strong-arm reports• Climate Change News – Saudi incentives• Yale Climate Connections – cost projections• U.S. Navy – Virginia-class• BBC – AUKUS deal• Global Times (20 Oct 2025) – CSSC statement• China Briefing – retrofit investments• Truth Social – Trump quote• Connexion France – Crit’Air• European Commission – CBAM Email: [email protected]: @justinhaydenm #GlobalTrade #Maritime #Geopolitics #GreenShipping #ENSMA Privileged Discussions ProductionIf you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow. *Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at [email protected] Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://bit.ly/PrivilegedDiscussions *Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.