Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN):

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Luke Gromen — founder of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) Research — returns to Monetary Matters the same week Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of Treasury buybacks, and Luke argues it's the first real admission that the U.S. has what his firm calls an "emerging market hard currency debt spiral problem."

The math that doesn't work: Luke breaks down why entitlements, interest, and veterans benefits now total 105% of federal receipts — and why that obligation is "hard currency" the government can't inflate away, growing 7.5% a year against receipts growing only 4%.

The gold revaluation scenario: Step by step, Luke lays out how the Treasury could legally revalue U.S. gold reserves from $42/oz to $20,000/oz under existing Federal Reserve accounting rules, mechanically depositing roughly $5 trillion into the TGA — and stages it as the FDR "fireside chat" he'd give the country to explain it.

Grading his own Iran war calls: Luke reviews the predictions he made when the U.S. attacked Iran — three out of four hit (the Treasury market breaking before Iran's economy did, Hormuz staying closed longer than expected) — and owns the one he got wrong: a Chinese oil-demand collapse that never came.

Bessent's yen intervention and the $13-14 trillion carry trade: Luke explains the "stylized Instagram" front-run story behind Bessent's yen intervention, and why the offshore dollar carry trade — $65 trillion gross, $22 trillion net in foreign-owned dollar assets — is the real constraint on U.S. policy.

Why gold, not bonds: Luke makes the case that TLT is down 90-95% against gold since 2014 with "another 90-95% to go," and that the S&P 500 is already down 30-50% against gold since 2022 and 2000 respectively.

Hamiltonian economics and the AI CapEx bubble: From Bessent to Jamieson Greer to JD Vance, Luke argues the administration is quietly building tariff policy around 19th-century "neutral reserve asset" economics — while comparing today's AI buildout to the canal, railroad, and telecom bubbles that all preceded it.

Private credit's Treasury problem: Luke connects insurance companies stuffed with illiquid private credit (instead of long-duration Treasuries) to UAE liquidity stress and the Hormuz shutdown, and explains why that's quietly removing a natural buyer from the bond market.

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Andy Unanue, Founder and Managing Partner of AUA Private Equity Partners and former COO of Goya Foods breaks down the trillion-dollar opportunity in US food, beverage, and pet wellness family businesses. Andy shares how his experience in a family-run business shaped his firm's strategy of partnering with lower-middle-market, family-run companies across those sectors and explains how AUA unlocks 15% to 30% operational efficiencies. The discussion dives into major consumer trends, including the humanization of pets, the rise of ethnic food markets, and the impact of GLP-1 drugs on snacking habits. Finally, Andy offers actionable advice on navigating generational wealth transfers, building positive workplace cultures, and transitioning family enterprises for long-term success.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:51 Goya Roots to PE

02:48 Market Size Focus

04:21 Operational Playbook

07:26 Exit Paths for Families

09:34 PE Exits and Buyers

13:18 Leaving Upside for the Next Buyer

16:17 Macro Trends Tailwinds

21:22 Beverage Bets and Risk

28:29 Authenticity Wins Consumers

31:41 Marketing and Internet Shift

36:10 Deal Sourcing and Moats

39:08 Co-Manufacturing Advantage

41:14 Regional Brands and Add Ons

44:56 Manufacturing Renaissance

53:34 Wealth Transfer and Family Offices

58:58 AUA Future and Wrap Up

Robin Wigglesworth — editor of FT Alphaville and author of A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World — joins Jack Farley to unpack the hidden debt fueling the AI buildout. Wigglesworth reveals that off-balance-sheet leverage from hyperscalers like Meta, Google, and Microsoft jumped from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in a single quarter, hidden in lease structures and purchase commitments that never show up as debt — including Google's own $800 billion in disclosed obligations. He argues the NVIDIA-Blackstone-KKR financing wave marks a shift from an equity-driven boom to a debt cycle, a distinction that makes today's AI buildout riskier than the dot-com bust ever was. The conversation moves from private credit's "spray and pray" lending problem to nine centuries of financial history — the Erie Canal boom, the 1873 railway mania, and the 19th-century fraudster who invented an entire country to sell government bonds. They close on whether credit rating agencies can survive the AI era, and why "the language of credit" may outlast every model built to replace it. It's a conversation about debt, leverage, and the patterns that connect 19th-century railroads to trillion-dollar data centers. Recorded August 13, 2026.

“A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built The Modern World”:https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/750210/a-fabulous-debt-by-robin-wigglesworth/

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Milton Berg, one of Wall Street's legendary market technicians, returns to Monetary Matters to explain why he believes the recent crash across the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, KOSPI, and semiconductor stocks has already bottomed — and why he's still positioned long despite major caveats.

The positive divergence call: Milton breaks down why the S&P 500's July 29th low held above its June 9th low even as the Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) made new lows — a classic technical signal he says points to higher prices ahead.

The 1987 crash comparison: Using historical crash-low data, Milton shows how markets rarely V-bottom and go straight up — and lays out why the current setup looks more like 1987 (a retest of the lows) than the COVID V-shaped recovery.

The "exhaustive gap" warning: Despite his bullish lean, Milton flags a specific gap pattern in the Nasdaq 100 and KOSPI that has historically signaled short-term tops — and explains what would need to happen for it to resolve bullishly instead.

Inside his trading model: Milton walks through his systematic buy-signal model, including a real trade history that turned $10,000 into over $1.15 billion, and unpacks how his signals performed (and failed) around 2008 and other historic drawdowns.

His current portfolio positioning: Milton details his exact allocations — long the KOSPI/EWY, Russell 2000, S&P Midcaps, Nasdaq 100, SOXX, and S&P 500 — and explains why he flipped from short to long on July 29th and 30th.

Gold, silver, and bond yields: Beyond equities, Milton shares his latest technical read on precious metals and where he sees long-term bond yields heading.

Why retail investor behavior matters right now: Milton highlights a retail selling data point — the highest since 2022 — and explains why heavy retail capitulation is historically a bullish signal for stocks.

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In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack Farley sits down with Deiya and Dean Pernas of Pernas Research to discuss their contrarian investment strategies and overarching market themes. The brothers delve into the massive energy demands of AI data centers, highlighting "bring your own power" solutions and infrastructure needs over traditional semiconductor plays. Additionally, Deiya explores the evolving landscape of cybersecurity and software in the age of AI, noting that while AI threatens some legacy software moats, it creates immense opportunities for exposure management platforms like Tenable and specialized marketplaces like Upwork. The conversation also unpacks the payments sector, specifically emphasizing the robust growth of cross-border money movement through fintechs like Wise and Remitly as they actively disrupt traditional correspondent banking. Throughout the interview, the Pernas brothers emphasize the importance of independent, buy-side research and the value of finding high-conviction, small-to-mid-cap stocks that the broader market may have mispriced. Recorded July 28, 2026.

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