Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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In this episode, Michael Howell of Capital Wars and Global Liquidity Indexes discusses why the global liquidity cycle has peaked and is beginning to slow down in early 2026. This shift suggests that investors should pivot toward defensive assets, as the "everything bubble" transitions into a regime where liquidity is tighter relative to growing debt. Howell explains that while the US economy remains fundamentally strong, this strength may ironically act as a headwind for Wall Street by absorbing liquidity into the real economy. He identifies China as the primary driver behind the current surge in gold prices, noting their decoupling from Western cycles as they print money to manage significant debt burdens. Consequently, he highlights Chinese technology stocks and precious metals as unique areas of opportunity in an otherwise cautious market environment. Finally, Howell warns that the "canary in the coal mine" for this liquidity downturn is Bitcoin, which has historically shown extreme sensitivity to shifts in global liquidity momentum.

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Recent Nobel laureate in economics Peter Howitt joins Jack to discuss his work on technological disruption and creative destruction. Dr. Howitt explains that technological advancement creates economic growth while
also causing workers to lose their jobs and firms to go bankrupt due to
obsolescence. This topic is especially relevant today because of the advancement of artificial intelligence technology. Jack and Dr. Howitt examine if artificial intelligence is truly economically different from past technological breakthroughs, the effects of its adoption, and more. Recorded on February 12th, 2026.

 

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Tian Yang, CEO of quant research platform Variant Perception, joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the benign macro regime might shift in the back half of 2026 should the Iran conflict not produce a prolonged shock. Yang also touches on how that roadmap would likely be altered by a prolonged conflict, the case for a manufacturing recovery, jobless growth, and peak market euphoria in the summer that could ultimately be marked by the generational IPO of SpaceX.

Variant Perception: https://www.variantperception.com/

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Timestamps:

00:00 Summer Peak Setup

00:54 Benign Macro Regime

02:54 Iran Energy Shock Risks

04:19 US Versus Rest World

06:41 War Duration Scenarios

10:08 Energy Rotation Signals

10:55 Allocation Engine Explained

13:04 CAIA.nxt

14:00 Fast Calls Repriced

18:44 Historical Cycle Analogies

24:08 Jobless Growth Framework

27:42 Shifting Investment Drivers

29:48 Fed Credibility Tightrope

34:35 Housing Disinflation Drivers

38:58 AI Jobs Debate

39:10 Valuation And Terminal Value

42:28 Capital Cycle Framework

46:31 Semis Versus Software

47:22 Regional Banks Inflection

50:06 Sovereignty Investing Thesis

56:20 Energy and Reindustrialization

59:26 Gold as Risk Off

01:01:20 Conclusion

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/

Legendary resource investor Rick Rule, founder of Rule Investment Media, explains why he anticipates a 75% decline in US dollar purchasing power over the next decade. Rule breaks down his recent move to sell a significant portion of his silver holdings to rotate into silver miners, highlighting the massive valuation arbitrage currently available in the sector. He provides a masterclass on the "best-of-the-best" royalty and streaming companies and why he thinks streamers are going to make more deals than ever. He also outlines his top criteria for resources stocks in the mining and oil & gas sectors.

Rule Investment Media: https://www.ruleinvestmentmedia.com/

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:53 10 Year Metals Thesis

04:38 Contrarian Investing Rules

07:15 What Starts Bull Markets

10:22 Selling Silver For Miners

14:04 Pictet’s PQNT

16:57 Why Royalties Win

20:00 Big Streaming Deals Ahead

23:58 Valuation Arbitrage And M&A

27:02 Gold Linked Bonds And Credit

30:08 Elemental EMX Merger Synergies

34:11 Altius The Resource Allocator

36:22 Lithium DLE Threat

37:11 Altius Beyond Royalties

39:38 What Makes Great Majors

41:03 Recycle Ratio Explained

45:01 Efficiency Beats Optionality

47:10 Top Picks and M&A Logic

51:58 Jurisdiction Risk Reality

55:12 California Politics and Oil

59:19 Non Producers Highcroft

01:02:29 Snowline and Globex Views

01:06:15 Canadian Oil Royalties

01:09:55 Conclusion

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/

Distinguished economist Paul Krugman joins Jack to discuss the devaluation of the dollar, the nomination of Kevin Warsh, artificial intelligence, and much more. Dr. Krugman brings his expertise to give cogent and intelligent answers on important economic questions of our time. Recorded on February 6th, 2026.

 

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