The Tsunami Is Coming Podcast

What the new U.S. National Security Strategy quietly signalsThe 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy contains one line that should make every European policymaker pause: Washington now wants to “cultivate resistance” inside allied democracies.This isn’t military intervention. It’s something quieter:a willingness to back alternative political forces in Europe to “correct” its trajectory.Key points from the document:* Europe is described as facing “civilizational erasure” and becoming “unrecognizable in 20 years.”* Current European leaders are labeled “unstable” and accused of “trampling democratic principles.”* The U.S. pledges to support “patriotic European parties” and “political allies in Europe.”* It questions whether future European societies will remain “reliable allies.”* It suggests Europe needs to be pushed toward a quicker settlement in Ukraine.Why this mattersThis is a cold reminder that geopolitical risk today isn’t just about borders, armies, or treaties. It’s also about political interference between allies, demographic anxieties, and competing visions of what the West should be.If we keep measuring risk the old way, we will miss what’s unfolding right in front of us.You can read the full document here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jeremyghez.substack.com/subscribe

It’s way too early to determine the long-term effects of the US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities yesterday. Here are a few brief thoughts to get this conversation going. Long story short? Now may be a good time to start doubting if you never had any doubts about the regions future. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jeremyghez.substack.com/subscribe

Musk blasted Trump’s signature bill as “disgusting abomination.” He added, moments ago, that Trump would have never been elected without his help. Trump said he found this all very disappointing. High level drama?Yes. And a warning about the new rules of influence.We’re moving from a predictable, institution-based system where companies could rely on established processes and regulatory frameworks, to one where political relationships increasingly determine business outcomes. This creates both unprecedented opportunities for those who can successfully navigate Trump’s transactional approach, and significant risks for those who can’t or won’t engage. In this new world, managing risk means managing relationships — not just regulations. The hard part is less strategy—and more politics. See you tomorrow for the regular installment. And always feel free to hit “reply”. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jeremyghez.substack.com/subscribe

Recent concerns about Joe Biden's health and the broader challenges facing the Democratic Party shouldn’t feel normal — and here’s why:* They highlight growing questions about transparency and leadership within a party that seems increasingly out of touch with the U.S. electorate.* These U.S. developments reflect a global pattern: as the world grapples with rapid, disorienting change, the supply of new political ideas is dwindling — just when they’re most urgently needed.Share your thoughts. The road ahead promises to be as painful as it is prolonged… This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jeremyghez.substack.com/subscribe

One photo, two leaders, and a thousand headlines. In three minutes I break down why Trump’s Vatican kneel-down with Zelensky looks anything but accidental.Love him or hate him, you must remember something about Trump’s talent: as the former owner of the beauty pageant Miss America, and the former host and producer of The Apprentice, the President of the United States knows what makes a picture appealing and a story good. Long story short: there’s a lot more hesitation in Trump’s mind than what headlines suggest. So, as always, remain open-minded about your future outlook: there are a lot more possible paths for this administration to take than what conventional wisdom suggests. Here’s the thing: the question isn’t whether this was calculated or not—it was. The real question is why? Long story short: there’s a lot more hesitation in Trump’s mind than what headlines suggest. So, as always, remain open-minded about your future outlook: there are a lot more possible paths for this administration to take than what conventional wisdom suggests. The pictureTwo noteworthy commentsChris Ardane writes on something previously known as Twitter: I’m a photographer and understand (I think) Trumps popularity, but I’ve got no answer to how the dude has a knack for producing iconic photos almost weekly. He’s a meme machine.Historian Simon Sebag Montefiore comments (on the same social media): The Grand Prince of Kiev is received by the Holy Emperor of the Romans at the funeral of the Bishop of Rome….Did I miss anything? Do you agree? Just hit reply and let me know. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jeremyghez.substack.com/subscribe