Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast

We are excited to have Anthropic share their latest AI x Finance work at AI Engineer New York, coming up in 2 weeks!
In case you’ve been under a rock, here’s a non-exhaustive list of what Anthropic has been shipping since closing the largest fundraise of all time in May at $47B ARR:
* June: Launched Claude Tag and Sonnet 5 and Fable 5
* July: Opus 5, /checkup. crossed $65B ARR
* Last month: Fable/Mythos 5.1, and EFS (upcoming pod)
* IPO target $2T, end 2026 ARR estimated $100B
* Cowork/chat merged before did
* Claude Mods
* Dario endorses the same Pacing the Frontier message cosigned by all labs
* Last week: Opus 5.5, Plugins portal, Cloud Sessions/Claude Projects
* Today: Sonnet 5.5!
Today’s episode should catch you up, with Thariq Shihipar, the explainer-king of Anthropic, who we last caught up on Fable launch day with The Field Guide to Fable:

The Future of Mutable Software
Pay special attention to Claude Mods (especially the cheatsheet):
In general this is also the inverse of the other viral tweet from Thariq:
Cloud Brain, Local Hands
And give a try to Claude Projects:
The “hands” terminology is not just an analogy for the local/cloud paradigm that is being built up at frontier coding agent companies like Cognition, but is ALSO particularly relevant to the safety systems discussions that we’ll be discussing with Anthropic in an upcoming episode as they prepare to pace to frontier with responsible AI deployment.
For those who want Thariq’s writing tips we teased at the start of the pod, watch the full video here:
From the rapid rise of Claude Code to a future where agents can rewrite their own harnesses, collaborate across teams, and operate across cloud and local environments, the way we build software is changing extraordinarily fast. In this episode, Anthropic’s Thariq Shihipar joins swyx and Vibhu to unpack how power users are actually working with Claude Code today, why prompting remains a high-skill discipline, and where Anthropic thinks the agent harness is headed next.
We go deep on Claude Code’s evolving interface: Ask User Question and elicitation, artifacts as persistent generative interfaces, Claude Tag for multiplayer agent workflows, Projects, model effort, implementation notes, and the new Claude Mods system for customizing the harness itself. Thariq explains why Claude.md may eventually disappear, why the smartest model could also become the cheapest model for many tasks, and why mutable software could become a new paradigm for how applications are built and customized.
The conversation then turns to agent security and Anthropic’s “Pacing the Frontier” argument. Thariq walks through recent incidents where agents discovered unexpected ways to communicate, exploit infrastructure, reverse-engineer benchmark scorers, and chain vulnerabilities together. We discuss sandboxing, prompt injection, autonomous agents, interpretability, constitutional classifiers, probes, fallbacks, Auto Mode, and why securing increasingly capable agents may become one of the defining engineering problems of the next few years.
We discuss:
* Why agentic coding went from controversial to the default in less than a year
* Why prompting is still one of the highest-leverage skills for working with Claude Code
* How expert users build a mental model of Claude and what it can reliably one-shot
* Why discovering your “unknown unknowns” matters more as agents become more capable
* Artifacts as persistent, generative interfaces between humans and agents
* How Claude could split into a cloud-based “brain,” local or remote “hands,” and dynamic interfaces
* Claude Tag, Projects, and multiplayer agents and how collaborative agent workflows could evolve
* Why spending more time on the initial prompt can dramatically reduce wasted agent work
* When to use low, medium, high, or max effort for different engineering tasks
* Why frontier models may eventually outperform smaller models on both intelligence and token efficiency
* Why implementation notes can expose decisions the model considered but chose not to make
* Why Claude.md may eventually disappear — and why starting without one can sometimes be better
* Claude Mods: customizing the execution loop, UI, subagents, routing, and behavior of Claude Code
* Model routers, forked agents, and supervisor agents that automatically improve agent workflows
* Why Claude Mods may be an early preview of “mutable software”
* The bitter lesson of harness engineering and why agent architectures go out of date so quickly
* How Claude Tag is becoming an organizational harness for multiplayer work
* Why giving agents access to company data creates an enormous new security surface
* The Exploit-Bench incident where agents discovered ways to communicate and collaborate
* Why agents hacked Hugging Face for scorer code rather than benchmark answers
* How agents chained sandbox and infrastructure vulnerabilities in unexpected ways
* Why increasingly capable agents make traditional security assumptions harder to maintain
* The argument behind Anthropic’s “Pacing the Frontier” proposal
* Why software engineers are increasingly doing two jobs: engineering and keeping up with AI
* Constitutional classifiers, probes, and fallbacks and what interpretability looks like in production
* How Auto Mode checks whether an agent’s actions actually match the user’s permissions
* Why Thariq can see serious AI risks while still having a relatively low p(doom)
Thariq Shihipar
* X: https://x.com/trq212
* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thariqshihipar
Timestamps
00:00:00 Introduction
00:04:12 Ask User Question and the Future of Agent Interfaces
00:08:29 Artifacts, Projects, and Multiplayer Agents
00:15:37 Prompting as the Core Claude Code Skill
00:21:52 Context, Effort, and Smarter Model Usage
00:28:10 Is Claude.md Going Away?
00:32:49 Claude Mods: Customizing the Claude Code Harness
00:36:35 Model Routing and the Rise of Mutable Software
00:44:40 The Bitter Lesson of Harness Engineering
00:50:49 Claude Tag as an Organizational Harness
00:55:59 Pacing the Frontier and Autonomous Agent Security
00:58:22 Agents Hack Hugging Face for the Scorer
01:05:34 What Happens When Agents Need More Compute?
01:10:32 AI Coding Is Changing Faster Than Engineers Can Keep Up
01:17:17 Probes, Fallbacks, Interpretability, and Auto Mode
01:28:32 AI Risk, p(doom), and Closing Thoughts
Transcript
Introduction: Life at Anthropic and the Pace of Change
Swyx [00:00:00]: We’re here in the studio with our friend Thariq from Anthropic, and I guess generally the Claude Code, I-- there’s, there’s so much, merging of boundaries and you’ve been so on top of everything since you joined Anthropic. You have been early to Claude Code itself, but then also, and you’ve told that story in other podcasts, and you’ve also been talking about seeing like an agent. Most recently you did the top AIE World Tour talk, Field Guide to Fable, which obviously you guys launched Fable, so that was-- that’s cheating. And mostly you most recently also launching Claude Tag, and we’re also gonna be talking about Pacing the Frontier. There’s a lot going on in Anthropic. I guess top of the question is, what’s it like being at Anthropic when there’s so much going on?
Thariq Shihipar [00:00:48]: I think that It is, like. I think you can get whiplash sometimes. I think, like, going. When I joined Anthropic, I joined because of Claude Code. Like Claude Code had just come out and I was like, “This is so good.” And Opus 4 to me was like just, I could not imagine, like, how good it was? And that was, like, a real moment for me. But I was, like, trying to convince, like, my startup friends to use agentic coding, and they’re like, “Oh, no, like, our engineers don’t think it’s good enough,” or something. And I was like, “That’s insane.” and now you, like, fast-forward, 12 months, less, and, like, it’s just like, yeah, the default way that everyone codes, right? And I think that, like, just having to go from, like, selling it to, like, now, teaching people how to be. make the most use of it and be more efficient and things like that is just like a big, like big change. And, yeah, I think, like, it’s just hard to stay on top of everything as a human? Like, I think things happen so fast and like
Swyx [00:01:51]: You just throw more agents at it.
Thariq Shihipar [00:01:52]: Yeah, like that’s like the agentic stuff scales much better than the, like, human stuff where it’s like, oh, like, there are three things happening right now and, like, they’re all emergencies and, like, how do you, like, respond to it? Yeah.
Teaching People to Use Claude Code
Vibhu [00:02:05]: What do you split your time on? You do a lot of technical writing, engineering work.
Thariq Shihipar [00:02:10]: Yeah, so I think that, like, when I joined the Claude Code team, I wanted to teach people how to use Claude Code and I think that, like, that has been something that, like, I thought, like, maybe I would spend a little bit of time on it or, like, I’d, like, do. I was spending some time on the agent SDK first, and I wasn’t exactly sure, like, how the bitter lesson would go, when it comes to, like, harnesses, right? Like, I think sometimes we were like, “Oh, like, what’s after Claude Code?”? And so initially I was like, I just wanna teach people how to use Claude Code and make it easier to use Claude Code. And I think that has just, like, as the harnesses have gotten better and better, that’s like the dominant problem now is, like, how do you use the agents, right? Like, it’s like such a high skill expression thing. So I do that and then I do engineering work. I give talks, but I think, like, when I’m doing engineering work, my goal is to take that feedback that we get from users and also, like, then be able to talk about, like, hey, how to use Claude Code to do engineering. So there’s like a good loop there. Yeah.
Swyx [00:03:07]: Yeah. I’ll-- For listeners, we’ll attach, the talk that you did with Sarah for the Dev Writers, meetup
Thariq Shihipar [00:03:13]: Oh, yeah
Swyx [00:03:13]: Which we talked a little bit about, well, first you do the work and then you talk about the work.
Thariq Shihipar [00:03:16]: Right.
Swyx [00:03:16]: Something like that.
Thariq Shihipar [00:03:17]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:03:17]: It’s sow and reap or
Thariq Shihipar [00:03:19]: Yeah, reap and. Sow and reap.
Swyx [00:03:21]: Something like that. Something like that. Yeah, so, and then just to preview a little bit, we are gonna talk about the evolution of the harness. It has come a long way from just being a CLI. We’re gonna talk about, Claude Mods, which is starting to leak today, because you couldn’t keep it secret.
Thariq Shihipar [00:03:36]: Yeah. yeah.
Swyx [00:03:39]: Yeah, there’s, there’s a lot, there. I think you started off with, like, adding ask user question tool, which people love and hate.
Thariq Shihipar [00:03:48]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:03:48]: Like, I thought it was, like, very innovative, and then now I have, like, my own version. You have your Interview Me version.
Thariq Shihipar [00:03:55]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:03:56]: And, yeah, everyone just has, like, their own stuff. And, like, it no longer matters ‘cause now you’re supposed to, write prompts that create other prompts and loops and all these things.
Ask User Question and Human-Agent Interaction
Thariq Shihipar [00:04:05]: Sure, yeah.
Swyx [00:04:06]: So what’s the state of the art, today? Like, what are people. what are you, like, telling people to do today?
Thariq Shihipar [00:04:12]: Yeah, ask user question was the first time that the model was good at elicitation. I think this was, like, an emergent behavior that I, like, wanted to see if the models could do. I have, like a human-computer interaction background, so I, like, did that in undergrad and grad school. And so this was like. I think it’s like human-agent interaction to me, like, trying to figure out, like, how can the agent communicate with you and extract, the requirements, right? I think that, like, one of the things about, like, that’s difficult as Claude Code has gone broader and broader is that everyone has, like, their own way of using it, and it’s very hard to, like, change the default behavior. So for example, like, if someone asks Claude Code to do something,
Thariq Shihipar [00:04:59]: Sometimes they just want them to do the work, ‘cause they’re, like, maybe a very good prompter, and sometimes they want. like, are not good at prompting? And you need. like, the agent needs to, like, clarify? And so that’s, like, a good split. Like, and the ask you the question tool like, splits along that side where, like, are-- do you feel like you’re good enough to instruct the agent as it is, or is the agent able to, like. does the agent need to, like, pull out more requirements and, like, collaborate with you more and really understand your preferences?
Thariq Shihipar [00:05:27]: I, on the whole, believe that pretty much everyone is more on the latter than the former, that they, like, have more ambiguity and they know less than they want, than they, like, think they know about the problem. but, like, it’s like a interface design problem to make that easy? And so, like, if you’re designing a problem, like, or if you’re going through a problem, like, things like what’s the schema or, like, what’s the call stack and things like that are really important. like, the details in the design are important. Ideally, you want to figure out some of these, like, hard problems ahead of time before starting implementation. And yeah, that’s why they call, like, unknowns, right? And so I think that this will forever be, like, a skill in agentic coding is, like, figuring out your unknowns. So, like, because even if the model is, like, super intelligent- It, like, needs to know what you want? And, like, you have preferences. like, you need to like, pull the, pull that out. and so that’s, like, I think how I’m, what I’m pushing. the question then is, like, how does the agent interact with you? And I think that has been HTML, has been, like, the big way of doing that. And we’ve recently added artifacts, right? And artifacts, I think we’ve done a bad job of, like, or, like, I’ve done a bad job of, like, explaining how to use them fully. We have a lot of property capabilities. They have a database associated with them? And so every artifact can store and write persistent data. They can, like, feed back into Claude? And so, like, one thing that, like, people are not doing yet that I’m trying to, like, encourage is, like, this idea of a dashboard artifact. So you have, like, Claude working on a project long-term. Maybe it’s like a kanban or something. it can store that kanban data in its database. Multiple Claudes can access that data via, like, the artifact MCP, and, like, that artifact can, like, talk to those Claudes as well. And so, like, the. We’re building the primitives for you to be able to have this, like, generative interface via artifacts that will, like, let you surface more of that rich detail from the agents. And I think that, like, almost everything with agents right now is, like, this problem of, like, you think what you want, but you don’t really know what you want, and, like, the agents need a lot of detail, and collaborating with them in the loop is really important. And so artifacts are, like, the, like, way that we’re trying to evolve there. But there’s a lot of work to do because it’s so much more complicated than, like, a multiple-choice question? there’s a lot more, like, detail in terms of, like, diagrams and code snippets and schemas or, like, whatever it is for that problem. But, like, artifacts is, like, the mo-more AGI-pilled way of, like, doing ask user question. So yeah.
Artifacts as the Interface to the Harness
Swyx [00:08:15]: I think one thing that’s unclear to me about these, the artifact stuff is, like, what feedback should go in through the artifact and what feedback should go through a Claude, a chat? Because the more AGI-pilled one is to just feed everything to the Claude.
Thariq Shihipar [00:08:29]: I think the more AGI-pilled one is to go through the artifact. Like, and I think that, like, we imagine in the limit, I think that artifacts will be your interface into the harness? You can, like, comment on this, like, live, like, document of your plan, of the work. you can see maybe, like, multiple agents and different agents are doing this, and that artifact is built for the current work that you’re doing, right? And so, like, each one has, like, slightly different. I think we’re still, like, getting there from, like, an infrastructure perspective. But yeah, I think, like, on-the-fly interface for your harness is probably where things are headed.
Vibhu [00:09:03]: Is there a version of it that’s an abstraction from CLI or chat and you. Because right now, a lot of it is, okay, you’re interfacing with Claude Code, you’re having HTML given back for a mockup. It’s pretty rich. There’s diagrams. Artifacts are ways to connect these together. Why not just do everything that way?
Separating Brain, Hands, and Surface UI
Thariq Shihipar [00:09:22]: Then it becomes, like, separating out, like, where is the inference happening? Where is the intelligence happening? Where is the work happening? like, I think this is like, difference between, like, or, like, some of the distinction between local and cloud, right? And so, I think right now, if you use Claude Code, it’s, like, local and, like, you can spin off remote control, for example, to get some cloud behavior, or you can spin off Claude Code in the cloud, right? We’re moving towards a place where instead of Claudes, like, you message a local Claude, it starts a session locally and it executes, to more like you have a Claude that you message that’s in the cloud that’s running. it can run, like, local, or, like, cloud sessions. This is how Claude Tag works. But, like, over time, we’ll add, like, local hands as well. And so, like, local hands will be the ability for that agent to access your computer if it’s online, and be able to, like, work there. And so it can spin off many different subagents. It can, like, commu- those subagents can communicate with each other, and that’s where the artifact comes in to display all of that work. So you can imagine, like, the. You’re separating out these things. So there’s, like, the surface UI display that’s an artifact and hosted somewhere and has a database and everything. There is the inference intelligence, right, that’s happening on the cloud, and you don’t have to worry about shutting off your computer or whatever, right? and then there’s the, like, hands. Like, and it can be local, it can be in, like, a remote sandbox or wherever you need your work to be done. That’s like unpackaging, like, the Claude Code experience right now where, like, right now it all happens in one place, right? So.
Multiplayer Agents, Claude Tag, and Projects
Vibhu [00:11:00]: How do you see, like, the multiplayer side of that? So say teams want to work in this way. Right now it’s very individual, but how do you see the future of multiplayer? Like, right now, I guess there’s Claude Tag, which is a version, but.
Thariq Shihipar [00:11:12]: We’re launching projects. And so projects is the, like, this abstraction that’s like Claude Tag, but on our Claude products, right? So you can message it and, like, it will do the Claude Tag-like stuff, like spinning off subagents. So We think with multiplayer. Like, Claude Tag is, like, a little bit more native multiplayer because it’s just, like, in your Slack and the permissions are all figured out and stuff like that. But I do think multiplayer is, like, an important part of the story and, like, that will need to get tied together more. Like, you can imagine how complicated it gets when you’re like, oh, you have hands, but now you have other hands in other people’s computers too, and, like, you need to, like, permission them or, like, you have, like, your MCP and someone else’s MCP, and how do you figure out how to use them, right? It gets, like, quite complicated. And Claude Tag does a good job of, like, sanding down all of these issues, right? So that, like, when you have, yeah, Google Docs, how does it access Google Docs, right? Like, it accesses through the shared Claude MCP, or it can access through your local credentials as well if it doesn’t have access. But yeah, I think Claude Tag is our multiplayer, product, and it’s really useful for these, like, things that are inherently multiplayer. Like, okay, like on-call, for example, incidents are inherently multiplayer. You want to tag Claude, you want multiple people to log in, you want it to be able to find context. I think whenever I’m, like, working on something and I want, like, privacy or security or, like, I want other people to review it’s really nice to, like. I’ll have a channel per project and I’ll, like, at legal, for example, be like, “Hey, like, I want to ship this. Can you, like.” Like, here’s. Like Claude knows everything, just chat with it. And that way legal gets precise answers, on like what exactly is shipping into the code, and I don’t need to be in the loop, right? So I think like multiplayer is getting like more and more like, yeah, everyone can participate with Claude. I think Claude Tag is like that product and like projects will start off single player and will like, expand.
Swyx [00:13:14]: I think there’s a question about like maybe dual questions about identity and the unit of isolation.
Identity, Permissions, and Isolation
Thariq Shihipar [00:13:20]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:13:20]: Claude Tag, you specifically chose to make it its own identity
Thariq Shihipar [00:13:26]: Yes.
Swyx [00:13:26]: Which is like, a controversial choice. There’s, there’s other ways to do it.
Thariq Shihipar [00:13:30]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:13:30]: Claude Projects probably it sounds like, if it’s anything like ChatGPT Projects, it is, the isolation is that artifacts, that cloud instance, everyone’s collaborating on this. It’ll. It sounds like, it should be like if you’re, if you’re collaborating with legal on a thing, like that channel should be a project, right? Like it’s not yet
Thariq Shihipar [00:13:50]: Yes.
Swyx [00:13:50]: But it. that’s the natural next step.
Thariq Shihipar [00:13:53]: Yeah, like I think in Claude Tag, it’s effectively. Like Claude Tag, you have to do your own arrangement. And so Claude Tag, yeah, each channel is like you can name it as you want, and I name
Swyx [00:14:04]: Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [00:14:04]: Like each feature
Swyx [00:14:06]: Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [00:14:07]: As a channel.
Swyx [00:14:07]: And, but I think like there is some trans- like it’s unclear when there is transference, because let’s say it is. if you have a coworker
Thariq Shihipar [00:14:14]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:14:14]: Who is tagging on all these things, yes, there is transfer
Thariq Shihipar [00:14:16]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:14:16]: Because it’s the same person. but with Claude, it’s unclear if it’s like necessarily like, well, no, you don’t know any of. you don’t know about the other stuff. You should only use this stuff.
Thariq Shihipar [00:14:25]: It’s like the tip of the iceberg meme, right, where you can like. This is what we spend so much time on
Swyx [00:14:31]: Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [00:14:31]: Is like there is like infinite surface area of like, okay, you want Claudes to. Not infinite, but like there’s like surface area, a lot of like, surface area to figure out of like permissions and visibility and like how can you let Claude operate as well as you can, as safely as you can? And obviously, this is very important to us because like security for our code base is very important. And so we’ve put a lot of time into this. Yeah, there’s so many like edge cases you can figure out where it’s like, oh, like, yeah, this Claude in this channel has different permissions, but it can message another channel, and can’t it exfiltrate data that way? Or like can you like. What if it uses your MCP and then messages someone else? Like there’s like so much, and we’ve like really put a lot of work into sanding it down.
Swyx [00:15:14]: Yeah. Lots of work. okay. Fable?
Fable and the Meta-Skill of Prompting
Vibhu [00:15:18]: Fable, you wrote two good articles. you’ve written many good articles
Thariq Shihipar [00:15:22]: Yeah.
Vibhu [00:15:22]: But on, Field Guide to Fable, Building Claude Code. I’m curious from what you’ve seen, is there any common patterns that you see in like top users at Anthropic externally? Like what are best practices for getting the most out of Claude Code?
Thariq Shihipar [00:15:37]: The like meta skill I say is like prompting is like very important? And like that. Like I think this is like not trivial to say because I think a lot of people are like, “Oh, prompting doesn’t matter. It’s just like I can just say a sentence and Claude will do it.” And I think prompting is really this like, this. It’s like public speaking, like, or writing or something, and for a specific audience, and that audience is Claude. And you need to like build a mental model of Claude and how it thinks and how it works, right? And so that’s like the most important skill in working with Claude Code is like having this mental model, right, of Claude and like what it can do well, what it can one-shot, what it can’t. And so many people when you see prompting, they’re just like, they’re short prompts, but they have such a good mental model of Claude and of like the code base and things like that like it’s effortless? But it’s like high skill ceiling. So like that work of like, spending a lot of time prompting and building mental models of how, and intuition for how the agents work is really important. And then I think like the next thing is like the unknown stuff we talked about earlier, where it’s like being able to find out like your, what you don’t know or what you haven’t written down, learning about like different things. I think as Claude can do more and more things, the likelihood of you doing something out of distribution for you and like you have low domain knowledge on is very high? And the more you can like learn the vocabulary to be able to prompt Claude, it becomes really important. And so like I think the most important unknowns are the unknown unknowns, where you’re like, I just like don’t even know that this exists, right? Yeah, exactly. I think that’s like a illustration of like the map and the territory, right, where you’re like, “Okay, this is my prompt,” and the territory is like the actual like work that the agent needs to do, right? And if you are like very precise, you can give more precise things, right? So like for example, in design, I’m not very precise. I’m not a designer, so I say like, “Give me like eight different mock-ups.” But if I was a designer, maybe I’d be like, “Oh, hey, here are some reference sites.” Like, “I want this type of font and this type of like look to it, and here’s like a few different components to like visualize. Here’s a Figma MC board to bring in,” like. And so you can just be so much more precise with that language. And if you’re not a designer, you just need to like try and learn the language or learn the unknown unknowns. And this is true of like everything, I think. Like the more, like you can work with Claude to learn like how things work, the better your prompting will be. I think another good example of this is like game design, like where a lot of people are like, “Oh, like I can vibe code a game now.” And they’re like, “It’s not fun.” And like it’s just like the thing about game design is like every one of these choices has like a lot of
Taste, Domain Knowledge, and Learning the Vocabulary
Swyx [00:18:25]: Variations.
Thariq Shihipar [00:18:25]: A lot of like craft to them. So it’s like, oh, okay, like when you’re making a flying game, the feel of the plane and the like, way it responds to your controls has a lot of like. Like, a game designer would spend like days on that. Do? and like
Swyx [00:18:44]: To me, that’s what taste is, right?
Swyx [00:18:45]: Like it is like from the possible space of one thousand mathematically valid answers
Thariq Shihipar [00:18:49]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:18:49]: Here’s the one that is the humans will like.
Thariq Shihipar [00:18:51]: Yes. Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [00:18:52]: I think with taste, I’m like torn on this word ‘cause I think you’re right, but everyone has different definitions, and it sounds kind, sounds like low skill or like elitist almost, where you’re like, oh, like there are certain people with taste?
Swyx [00:19:06]: It’s like taste is what I call taste.
Thariq Shihipar [00:19:07]: Yeah, exactly.
Swyx [00:19:08]: And it’s like these guys don’t have taste.
Thariq Shihipar [00:19:09]: Yeah, exactly. Oh, like an engineer doesn’t have taste. Like I, the like founder, have taste.
Thariq Shihipar [00:19:14]: ? And I think that’s not true. Like I think like the engineers have a lot of taste for these particular like problems? And I think everyone has taste for particular problems. I think like Jason Liu, like say like in order to, yeah, have taste, you have to eat?
Thariq Shihipar [00:19:32]: And I really like that, where it’s like, okay, you have to like do a lot of things. You have to like iterate and figure out what you want, what you like, and, like build that like domain
Swyx [00:19:41]: Yes
Thariq Shihipar [00:19:41]: Domain vocabulary. And then when you’re prompting, you’re like synthesizing all of that for a product.
Swyx [00:19:46]: Isn’t it annoying when someone else says it better than you?
Swyx [00:19:48]: It’s just like, f**k, I have to quote this guy forever.
Vibhu [00:19:51]: Having to quote Jason Liu forever.
Vibhu [00:19:53]: He’s gonna love this.
Thariq Shihipar [00:19:55]: So I get prompts, more than that.
Vibhu [00:19:57]: And sometimes it’s not even that. Sometimes it’s just intuitive, right? Like you don’t realize you even want something till a model puts it out, and you’re like, “Oh, this just feels immediately better,” right?
Voice Prompting and Information Density
Thariq Shihipar [00:20:07]: Yeah, exactly.
Swyx [00:20:09]: One thing I go back and forth on is I feel like the way I prompt half the time, let’s say I use voice.
Swyx [00:20:16]: Did I say voice? Other people have voice. that is the opposite. That is just like me rambling for like two minutes Pressing down the function key and then let go, and then like hopefully it figures it out. And oftentimes it does.
Thariq Shihipar [00:20:26]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:20:26]: But it’s not as thoughtful as like a structured prompt with like Well-run communication as though it’s a PRD or a memo. Is that in line with how people do this? There’s like bimodal prompting where there’s some prompts where you spend a lot of time upfront and other prompts you just dash it off?
Thariq Shihipar [00:20:43]: I don’t think the voice is necessarily low. Like I think it’s like more like how much information is in the prompt. like the model can. Like you can and like add some sentences
Swyx [00:20:53]: Right
Thariq Shihipar [00:20:53]: And be like, “Oh, like I changed my mind,” like in the middle of the prompt, and it will be able to follow that perfectly? So I think the like actual format of the text is less important, but then like the ability to. Like how much information is in it, right? And I think for voice, a lot of times, going back to like human-agent interaction and like for a lot of people, it’s just way easier to talk than to like type? and I. If that gets more information out of you, like that’s better.
Vibhu [00:21:21]: At some level, it feels like just giving the model as much context
Thariq Shihipar [00:21:24]: Yes
Vibhu [00:21:24]: Over prompting before you kick off is a best practice. I don’t know. A lot of the times, like when I was first trying out Fable, I spend a solid 30 minutes like really crafting a long prompt. This, I think, is a response of models running for longer and longer, right? It’s still a little difficult to nudge them as they’re in like, in the loop, but I just like intuitively spend more time kicking off that first prompt and working with it a lot.
Spend More Upfront, Iterate Less
Thariq Shihipar [00:21:52]: My personal opinion is that if I was a software engineer, if I was like, just running my own startup, for example, I think I would mostly fit, stick to a max 20x? like maybe verification and so code review are like separate things. But I think like what I see a lot of times is people hit rate limits when they’re doing this like, oh, like it did a lot of work and you’re like, “Oh, I don’t like this.” Like, “Can you like undo this and redo it?” And then you’re like iterating on this like thing that the model could have done if you had like spent more upfront time or given it better context? And instead it’s like you’re like, “Nope, don’t like that design. Try this.” Or like, “You messed this up,” or something like that. And then that just eats up so much more of like, your usage. And so that’s like, I think maybe like a key like tip both for like efficiency as well, right? And yeah, I think like context, and not just like context on like what the goal is good, right? Like are you building a prototype or is it like a production thing? Like where can you spend compute or when, where can you not spend compute? Like I think you have to give the model permission or like not permission to do things sometimes where, like it doesn’t know intuitively how much you want to spend on this task, right? And you can use effort for this. So I did-- I’m working on a blog post about that where it’s like, if you want. For like we see that effort scales with the complexity of the task. So for security, effort gets like way more results. Like high effort versus like low effort gets, like changes the evals a lot. But for software engineering, it doesn’t change it a huge amount because effort is mostly spent on the verification and the like edge case testing and things like that. And so like being able to like give the model that guidance of like, “Hey, this problem is something that I think I want you to spend a lot of time verifying and edge case testing,”?
Effort, Model Choice, and Verification
Vibhu [00:23:43]: How about model in the mix? So, there’s Opus and Fable with effort.
Thariq Shihipar [00:23:47]: Yeah.
Vibhu [00:23:48]: There’s also Haiku in there.
Thariq Shihipar [00:23:49]: Yeah. It’s not quite true yet, but it’s very close where I think the frontier models will be Pareto dominant over like almost everything. like maybe. And sometimes I think Opus might be Pareto dominant. Do? Like I think depending on like how things, like shake out if it’s like a newer version of Opus. But I think that like increasingly it’s just going to be like the smart model is going to be able to like do the simple task for less tokens than the like the other models because of verification. With verification, in the limit, your model doesn’t need to verify, right? If it’s a perfect model, it just does the work once and it’s like, okay, like you, I did it? And increasingly with Fable, I’m like, I’m like, “Dude, you don’t need to spin up Chromium and screenshot all of these things.” Like I see it. Like you did it, right? And so a lot of the. At higher effort, you spend more of those tokens verifying. But if you’re working on simpler problems, and a lot of software engineering is like well, like in Fable, like low and medium stability, it can spend less tokens verifying. And as the models get smarter and smarter, they will just be able to like, “All right, done.”? Like, I can run the lint for sanity’s sake, but, like, I, like, know it lints? Like, you don’t even need to do that. And that will be so much more token efficient than, like, the smaller models. Yeah.
Swyx [00:25:15]: Is there a good, practice on our side that we can use to see if we’re using too much effort? Like, I freaking
Thariq Shihipar [00:25:23]: Yeah
Swyx [00:25:23]: Hate wasting time on that stuff.
Thariq Shihipar [00:25:24]: Yeah. I know what you mean. I think, like, so in this blog post, my rough distribution is, like, code review and security should be, like, high or max and, like, software engineering
Swyx [00:25:37]: You said recommend mix settings per domain.
Thariq Shihipar [00:25:37]: Yeah. I think, like, if you’re doing, like, UI or something like that, like low and medium, I think is you’re building, like, an API and you want to make sure, like, you cover enough edge cases? And so I think building, like I said, that mental model of, like, how things work across these distributions is, like, yeah, part of the job.
Implementation Notes and Decision Logs
Vibhu [00:25:56]: This is more intuition-driven or eval? Because I’m guessing this would change as you go.
Swyx [00:26:00]: He has evals.
Thariq Shihipar [00:26:01]: Yeah. So what I did in the blog post is I go over all of the terminal bench evals. So there are, like, 70 problems and I’m show that, like, okay, like, in the security problems it does more. and then I also, like, look at some of the transcripts just in terms of, like, how-- what does it answer, what does it forget or something. And a lot of times, this is another prompting tip I have, is, like, asking it to make decision notes or implementation notes because, in every eval problem that it faces, it thinks about the correct solution, and decides not to do it. it’s like, oh, like, here is the answer. What if I did this? And then it’s like, oh, probably not? and then keeps going. And this is, like, the majority of the failures, at, like, a higher max level. It’s very rare that the model just doesn’t know how to do something. If you just have these implementation notes, then you can review and you can be like, “Oh, I want you to do this thing that you didn’t do.” The models are getting better at surfacing that overall. Like, I see in the transcripts of Fable 5.1, like, when it does this output, it will call out its decision-making as well. but making this more explicit in the harness is better. And now we’re, allowing ways of you modifying the harness so you can, like, add some
Vibhu [00:27:23]: Ooh.
Thariq Shihipar [00:27:24]: Calculate with there. Yeah.
Swyx [00:27:25]: Yeah. So I do wanna call out two things that you mentioned that I think exist outside of prompting. One is like, let’s, let’s call it the prompt that is so important that it shouldn’t be in a prompt. It is in Claude.md or Agents.md
Thariq Shihipar [00:27:38]: Yeah
Swyx [00:27:38]: Which is like goals, right? Like your situation, your goals, the things that you want, the thing. and then second of all is the decision log or the experiment log or whatever log of traces that you might want to survive the current session to do those things. Those are, like, externalities that there’s no standard. There’s no-- It’s not like skills. It’s not like MCP. There’s no standard. It’s, it’s just like it’s a markdown file. first of all, is that right? Is Claude.md going away? You have a documented dislike of, Agents.md, but you’re gonna do it?
Claude.md, Agents.md, and Model-Specific Instructions
Thariq Shihipar [00:28:10]: Yeah. Okay. So Agents.md, yeah, like, we’re, we’re gonna do it. I think it’s just, like, different models are very different from each other? But I realize that it’s, like, such a pain to, like, maintain different ones? And yeah, like, as the models get better and better, the floor of how they accomplish the simpler task is better. And so I do think in the limit, Claude.md goes away, and maybe not even, like, that far. Like, I think, like, I think that right now it might be better to start a new project without a Claude.md.
Swyx [00:28:44]: Yes.
Thariq Shihipar [00:28:44]: I think that, like, maybe if you see very repeated failure modes, you add them to your Claude.md. The really tough thing is that this changes per model. And so, like, if you’ve added a bunch of failure modes or, like even
Swyx [00:28:57]: So you need Fable MD, you need Opus MD.
Thariq Shihipar [00:28:59]: Or well, even Fable 5.1 versus Fable 5.
Swyx [00:29:03]: Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [00:29:03]: Like, it is annoying. Like, I’m not like,
Swyx [00:29:05]: Yeah
Thariq Shihipar [00:29:05]: Like, we don’t, like, do this on purpose? It’s just, like, how the models work, right? And so, like, maybe, like, Fable 5 had this, like, failure mode that Fable 5.1 doesn’t. And if you keep this context, this running log of a bunch of different failure modes, they will probably over constrain Claude? And so this is like. we just added evals plugins for skills.
Swyx [00:29:28]: Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [00:29:29]: And so now you can eval if a skill is better. I think Daisy on our team did this. And so, yeah, this is like we’re trying to work on this. We know it’s, like, you still have to spend tokens on it and, like, it’s not, it’s not perfect, but it’s, like, we’re trying to help out with this problem.
Swyx [00:29:44]: And so, and as far as prompting goes, the one tip I wanna offer is, something I have told people a lot is sufficiently advanced prompting is indistinguishable from sufficiently advanced executive communication. So I’ve referred to-- This is an executive comms workshop from Heavybit that is the best I’ve ever seen in my career. And they teach this thing called the SCQA model. Just Google it. It’s a, it’s a thing. Like, people have done prompting for decades. It’s just called executive communication. It’s like when one person has to communicate to thousands of people down the org chart, this is what you do. so situation, complication, question and answer, is how you write the memo. but obviously sometimes you don’t have the answer, but you can at least list out the SC and Q, and then they have some examples in there. So just leaving breadcrumbs for people if they want to explore.
Underrated Prompting Patterns and ELI5
Vibhu [00:30:31]: Before we move on, I wanna ask you, any other underrated tips, ways people could get a lot of value from Claude Code that they’re not using?
Thariq Shihipar [00:30:41]: Yeah, I think a lot of them are in the, this unknowns, like, doc. Like, I give a bunch of example prompts, like, using it for brainstorming, using it to quiz you after. we added this, like, explain it like I’m five skill which is a very short prompt. And it doesn’t even say explain it like I’m five. It’s like the key word of this prompt is big pictures, few words. like, that’s like the main thing. And it is shockingly good? Like, you, like, I think I tweeted about this and it’s like /eli5, and, like, you can install it as a plug-in. But yeah, it’s, like, way better at just cutting through the BS and being like, yeah, exactly right here. So the diagrams are, like, quite clear. I think one of the things that is true with artifacts is, like, they put too much text in and people are not reading the artifacts? And so, like, this simplifies it a lot more. And, yeah, this came out of, like, just people at Anthropic, like, going through very complicated incidents and being like, “What is happening?”? So, this one I think is great, yeah.
Swyx [00:31:47]: My version of this is the, it’s like test your understanding. Give you a few choices and then, like, if you get it wrong, you have a mismatch between what you think is happening versus what’s happening.
Thariq Shihipar [00:31:58]: Yeah. I think this is one of those things that everyone loves talking about, and then very few people really do. Like, I think
Swyx [00:32:05]: Really helpful.
Thariq Shihipar [00:32:07]: Yeah. But most people just don’t want to get quizzed about something? Unfortunately, I think this is one of the, like, things that we need to, like.
Swyx [00:32:16]: What’s the opposite of ask you the question or ask you the question before the thing?
Thariq Shihipar [00:32:19]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:32:19]: This is after the thing.
Thariq Shihipar [00:32:20]: Exactly. Yeah.
Vibhu [00:32:21]: It’s a good way to stay grounded of, like, do you even know what you’re doing, right? The worst case is when people send you slop and they haven’t understood what they’re asking for or what the output is, and it’s like, “Dude, I don’t wanna read this. Do you even know what it is?” So, you make it a rule for yourself that before you send stuff, you should at least know what’s implemented.
Claude Mods: Customizing the Harness
Thariq Shihipar [00:32:41]: Yes, but so you could make this a mod and you could build your own mod to, like, make sure you test it. So yeah, you can do that.
Swyx [00:32:49]: All right. Let’s get right into it. What is Claude Mod, and what is this diagram showing?
Thariq Shihipar [00:32:54]: Yeah. Okay, so Claude Mods is you can customize the entire Claude Code harness, and we’re going to. If you have requests, we will, like, let you, like, please let us know. We’ll add more and more. This works for CLI, it works for desktop. maybe it will work for Claude Tag in the future. I don’t know. Like, we’re trying to make this very extensible. You can see this reference sheet. I don’t want people to get overwhelmed by it? At a high level, you can customize both the execution of the harness, and the UI of the harness. And so, like, you say on that Tetris example from Boris, that’s like customizing the UI, right? Like showing, like, Tetris in the game.
Thariq Shihipar [00:33:35]: But, like, let’s say that you wanted to do this thing where you had. you tested your assumptions or, like, tested your understanding after every project, right? What you would do is you would ask Claude to make this plug-in. It would spin a classifier after every prompt. And so, like, at the end of each turn, you would spin off a sub-agent or, like, a forked agent. A forked agent is, like, maintains the prompt cache, right? So it’s like a, like one of those unintuitive things where you can fork and do, like, a little request, and it’ll be very cheap because the entire prompt cache is, like, done. And so you can be like, “Has this task been completed?” like
Swyx [00:34:18]: This is how you do BTW and all those.
Thariq Shihipar [00:34:20]: Yeah. The underlying forked agent, yes. But so you can, in the f-fork sub-agent, you can say, like, “Has this task been completed? If so, return true.” And then in your hook, or in your, like, plug-in mod, or sorry, like, in the sub-agent probably, you would say, like, “If true, give me a quiz.” give me questions and answers, and then, like, in a JSON format, and then you’d parse it, and then you display above the prompt input, this list of questions, right? And so this is something that’s, like, slightly token-intensive because, like, you have to do it after every end of the assistant turn. But it’s, like, a lightweight classification, and then you can, like, get this quiz, and then you’ll see, like, Claude will always do it for you. You don’t need to remember to do it. There are lots of these, like, tips that we’ve talked about, right, where it’s like, oh, implementation notes. You can also add a tool for implementation notes now. And so, like, this tool that I’m adding is, like, register, like, I think assumption is what I’m calling it, but, like, maybe I’ll change it around. And this is a mod. And so, like, you give it a register assumption tool, and then it will keep a list. It’ll. Every time it does it’ll keep a, like, add to the list, and then at the end it will display those assumptions? Another mod I’m working on is a model router. And so, like, internal, like, Claude model routing, right? So it’s. This is, I want to say the reason we don’t do model routing by default is, like, it’s a hard problem? And like
Forked Agents, Assumption Tracking, and Model Routing
Swyx [00:35:51]: You will get it wrong.
Thariq Shihipar [00:35:52]: Yeah, you, like, yeah, you will, like, accidentally use, like, Fable for a hard problem or Sonnet for
Swyx [00:35:57]: Yeah, if you have auto approve, but you don’t have auto mode.
Thariq Shihipar [00:36:01]: Well, you will have auto. Like, you don’t have, like, auto routing or something.
Vibhu [00:36:04]: You don’t have auto mode for model picker.
Thariq Shihipar [00:36:06]: Yeah, exactly. So
Vibhu [00:36:07]: I’m getting the rough question of, like, how much do you open this up and how much do people have to think about this? Like, when you talk about prompt caching and building a router, it seems like you could easily build a mod that routes per query, and I’m just killing my plan very fast, right? I guess my question is more so, like, what is, like, a product talk like this look like, right? Who is it for? Is it for power users? Is it everyone should be able to go through
Swyx [00:36:33]: Oh, definitely power users, right?
Thariq Shihipar [00:36:35]: Yeah, I think it is power users, but, like, the nature of Claude Code is that so many people are power users? Because it’s easy to share things, like you can. Like, one person can make a good model router thing that doesn’t break prompt cache all the time, and then you can, like, compose them. Another cool thing about the plug-ins is that they can hook into and compose with each other. And so I have, like, a mod that will, like, create a mode selector at the top, and any plug-ins can register to be a mode. And so, like, the auto router can be a mode, right? Or, like, you can have a mode that’s, like, artifact mode, where it’s like it primarily talks to you in artifacts. like, you can toggle between plan mode? And so, like, you can create more and more of these modes. But the ability to create modes is in it itself a mod? And so there’s a lot of richness here, but we do want to make it fairly easy. We want to be-- make it so that you can just, like, install someone else’s. You can ta-- you can chat with Claude and, we’ll, like, make sure that it understands the nuances of things like prompt caching and stuff, so it can, like, warn you. This is, like, not extremely complicated behavior for Claude, I think, but we should have just a good skill on how to make mods. and yeah, we’ll see how we go. But I do think that this is, like, a preview of, like, mutable software, and, like, how, like, generative software, just like you can customize safely. If enabled, you could customize any piece of software. And I think that more and more apps ideally do something like this?
Power Users, Modes, and Mutable Software
Swyx [00:38:13]: And by the way, you, we have, you have another cool tweet about how, there’s the infinite money button, which is like make your SaaS, consumable by agents. I think mutable software is interesting and, other people have also tried to do it. I think the hurdle comes when you can do everything, then people, users get, tend to get confused. So usually the stuff that works is just like one opinionated flow. This is in the side of less opinionation. It’s just like, well, more power to power users. And I think probably unlocked by AI, where, like, you can just prompt for whatever the thing is.
Thariq Shihipar [00:38:47]: Yeah, or there can be a skill that gives the opinions?
Mods vs. Hooks vs. Artifacts
Swyx [00:38:50]: Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [00:38:50]: And then, yeah.
Swyx [00:38:51]: So knowing a little bit about, like, TypeScript and build systems and all these things, the closest-- I’m very curious that the team who worked on this, if, I don’t know how close you were to them, if they drew any inspiration from build systems like Babel, Webpack, all these, like, old school things. Because it sounds very similar, like the plug-in ecosystem of those things where they can compose with each other.
Thariq Shihipar [00:39:11]: Yeah, I’m not deep in the technical details, but I do know it was a collaboration with someone on the Bun team and someone on the Claude Code team.
Swyx [00:39:17]: Yeah, it’s a build system mecca.
Thariq Shihipar [00:39:19]: Yeah. Exactly. It’s, it’s very exciting. But yeah, like, agents can just do this very complicated like, extensibility into your software now. And so, yeah, like, another reason to, like. If you run a startup, like, you can just prompt Claude and be like, “Hey, like, could we make an extension system? Like, what would that look like?”?
Swyx [00:39:37]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:39:38]: And I just really wonder, like, you had hooks in the past and plug-ins, all these things. So what specifically will mods be able to do that those things could not do?
Thariq Shihipar [00:39:47]: Internally, we were originally calling this function hooks. And so, like, that’s, like, gives you a little bit of an idea where, like, hooks register a, like an event to happen and then, like, a script to call. And this inside of the, like, TypeScript runtime is running things. And so, like, you get some benefits of just, like, it has a bunch of things in the Scope with, like, for example, like how many turns is in this conversation, right? Like, how many tokens have been used? Like, et cetera. Like, what are the messages? Things like that. So it has a bunch of messages that can be used. And then it’s just, like, a lot more hooks. So we have, like, or a lot of, lot more, like, things you can register on. And then you can do because of the. because it’s all happening in process, you can, spawn sub-agents, with four contests and contexts and stuff. And, like, that will return. You can parse the results of those. You can use structured output to like, return them. and then you can modify the UI, which you can never do in hooks. So, yeah.
Swyx [00:40:50]: Yeah. Yeah. So modify UI, this is why you showed the Tetris example. Does it also ex-extend to artifacts? I assume it does.
Thariq Shihipar [00:40:57]: You-- Like, artifacts are like a different way of customizing it. like, you can definitely. One of the mods I’m working on is, like, this dashboard mod, which will, like, prompt Claude to maintain a dashboard, that’s an artifact. But they’re like, slightly orthogonal, or not orthogonal. They compose with each other in different ways. Like, mods are, like, a little bit more, like, in your Claude Code harness, changing the agent loop? And, like, the UI is, like, an added benefit. and then artifacts are just like you want to, see things at a high level, very inter- highly interactive. like, the affordances can be a lot bigger than, like a TUI or even in our desktop.
Next Steps, Supervisors, and Persistent Guidance
Vibhu [00:41:40]: I’m guessing you’ll have a good blog post on the differences, because right now you can also, make a loop that outputs to an artifact that’s an interactive dashboard, but you can also do it with a mod. There’s just some thinking about making a hacking on a harness when we don’t know much about the harness, right?
Thariq Shihipar [00:42:00]: Well, something I’m excited about with mods is, like, there’s so much things with Claude Code that you just have to remember? You’re like, “Oh, like, let me do this, and then let me call the dashboard skill that does the loop,” and things like that. And, or like, “Let me test my assumptions afterwards.” And I think, like, if you do all of these things using these little classifiers and stuff, and you’re like, “These are the things I care about. This is what I want to do,” you can, like. You don’t have to remember as much. One more, like, mod I’m working on is a next steps mod that
Swyx [00:42:28]: I have-- I was gonna say, I have a next step skill. I always run next steps.
Thariq Shihipar [00:42:32]: And does it have access to your skills? Like, this is one of those things where I’m like.
Swyx [00:42:37]: I think so.
Thariq Shihipar [00:42:38]: Okay. Yeah, probably
Vibhu [00:42:39]: Do skills need specific access to
Thariq Shihipar [00:42:41]: Well, I think there’s
Swyx [00:42:41]: Don’t they always have
Thariq Shihipar [00:42:42]: I think there’s, like, specific prompting, I guess, to, like, know your skills. Like I think Claude forgets them sometimes throughout, like, the thing. But anyways, the idea of, like, yeah, next steps that also are like, “Oh, hey, this has happened. Use the explain skill to explain to you what happened because this seems, like, quite complex,”? Or, like, yeah, “Use your unknown skill. It looks like you are, like, asking the model to, like, iterate on these small changes. It seems like you could prompt better.” like, “What if you did this?” Right? So, I think, yeah, like spending more compute there. Yeah.
Swyx [00:43:20]: And it should always come out as multiple choice. we have, I have
Vibhu [00:43:23]: We have his skill.
Swyx [00:43:24]: My next step skill is like this.
Thariq Shihipar [00:43:26]: Okay, perfect. Yeah.
Swyx [00:43:27]: You can steal it.
Thariq Shihipar [00:43:28]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:43:29]: Like, but like, for me, it’s all-- I think models really always need to be reminded, what are you trying to do here?
Thariq Shihipar [00:43:35]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:43:35]: Look at the whole transcript and go like, oh, was this original goal? Did your solution solve it? Were you lazy? If you’re lazy, maybe there’s a reason. Maybe you needed approval from me. Maybe you needed, there’s two things you wanna suggest. So it’s, it’s a little bit like the modification of the ask user question or interview me skill. so it’s next steps.
Thariq Shihipar [00:43:55]: Yeah, exactly. And again, the benefit of doing it with mods is you can do it as a fork sub-agent, and so it doesn’t remain in the context afterwards. So you have this, like, idea of like, okay, the model is doing its execution and you have this almost like supervisor, like, that is like making sure that you can do like the next steps well. So yeah.
Swyx [00:44:15]: Yes. I do have two panels and like I often try to have a supervisor thing, keep the high-level context and then the implementation
Thariq Shihipar [00:44:21]: Yeah
Swyx [00:44:22]: Detail in another agent.
Vibhu [00:44:23]: I feel like a lot of this abstracts away as models change? The, like, half an hour ago you said bitter lesson of harness engineering
The Bitter Lesson of Harness Engineering
Thariq Shihipar [00:44:31]: Yeah
Vibhu [00:44:31]: And we’re on the other extreme right now, I feel.
Swyx [00:44:33]: Well, so yeah, exactly. If everything’s customizable, what is Claude Code, right?
Thariq Shihipar [00:44:37]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:44:37]: And which I talked to you about last night.
Thariq Shihipar [00:44:40]: Yeah, I think that this is. I think the bitter lesson is unintuitive? In terms of like. Also, like we’re misusing a little bit of the bitter lesson here where it’s like, it’s more about like scaling and compute and stuff. But like, I think there is something where it’s just like. I think I use it as an approximation here to say that harnesses go out of date very quickly? And like how, but how they change is unintuitive? And so like the big obvious example is like from chat to like agents where you had to give them entirely new tools, right? But like, I think this new version of like, oh, it can modify its own harness, right? This is like, an own harness loop is like a way of using its capabilities, right? Or like it can build an artifact. And like, I think the way I think about it is like the models have more and more intelligence, and they’re like so much more intelligent now than like the average software engineering task. Like, you look at the like terminal bench ones and they’re like solve like the Jacobian conjecture. Not really, but like, it’s like they’re, they’re quite complex. Like, I would not have been able to do this really as a software engineer.
Swyx [00:45:42]: And you said TB4 or TB2?
Thariq Shihipar [00:45:43]: TB3. TB3.
Swyx [00:45:44]: TB3.
Thariq Shihipar [00:45:44]: Yeah. They’re quite complex, but the goal is still to deliver user value, right? And like you said, there’s like this infinite space of things to do. And so the ways like you spend compute are to keep the user in the loop and make sure that like you’re getting to the right decision in the end of the day and like the right output. And artifacts and mods are this way of like spending that intelligence. and I think that’s like, yeah, the next step. And so, yeah, I think Claude Code is like, has the core things of agent loop which are, have gotten more complicated. It’s like, it needs a sandbox to operate safely. It needs auto mode to like make sure like the permissions
Vibhu [00:46:21]: Approvals.
Thariq Shihipar [00:46:21]: Yeah, approvals. it needs computer use and MCPs and like all of these like ways of accessing your data, and it needs web search and web fetch. And like, so the-- as the models can do more and more, the core harness has to be like quite complex and very secure. But then like how you interact with it can change quite a lot.
Vibhu [00:46:42]: What other harness engineering best practices have you, from the Claude Code team itself? I feel like, there was a phase of plan mode, which is not as used. We now have auto mode. at a point you cut the majority of the system prompt, you got rid of examples. What other best practices are there for harness engineering?
Core Harness Primitives and Managed Agents
Thariq Shihipar [00:47:02]: I think there is like a forking path where at some point, eventually, yes, the model will just be able to like vibe code the exact version of Claude Code, even describing all this complexity that I’ve talked about, right? Like auto mode and computer use and stuff. Eventually, the models will just be able to do that in one shot. But I think they can one shot simpler harnesses? And so like, I think some people. Sometimes you don’t need this full, like if you don’t need computer use or like all this like more complicated stuff. I think before we, you had to use things like the agent SDK, which was like Claude Code wrapped, in order to like. And I would, like suggest people do that because there was so much complexity into building a harness. And now as that’s got more abstracted, we have like, Claude managed agents, which lets you have that complexity, but still like, right, like a very bare bones like harness that’s scoped to your task. Yeah, I think there’s like this barbell effect where like for like very complex, for like coding task and like these like complex things, you should use our harness. And then for like a lot of like simpler or like, more domain-specific things, you can build your own harness because Claude has gotten better at building harnesses, and we have these harness primitives like managed agents. So yeah.
Swyx [00:48:18]: Yeah. Is there a general progression? Let’s say chapter one was ultra code dynamic workflows, then chapter two was cloud mods. Where is this going?
Swyx [00:48:29]: Where you’re, you’re, you can customize the thing on demand.
Thariq Shihipar [00:48:36]: Yeah. I do think that like this evolution of projects and like artifacts and splitting out like brain and hands and, surfaces is like where things are going more. And like, I think it’s like not all quite there. partially it’s like a, it’s just like more token expensive? And like, I think like
Projects, Local Hands, and Cloud-to-Local Handoffs
Swyx [00:48:59]: Why would projects be more token expensive? I understand mods would be slightly more token expensive. No, not something I’m worried about.
Thariq Shihipar [00:49:06]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:49:06]: But what
Thariq Shihipar [00:49:07]: You’re asking Claude to do. It’s like creating loops. Like you’re asking Claude to do more work for you. And so like it’s managing the sub-agents and reviewing it, versus where you would be doing that work normally. And so that’s like gonna be a little bit more intensive, like. Outputting to an artifact is gonna be a little bit more token-intensive than, like, outputting normally. I don’t think it’s too much more, but like, it’s like combining all of these together well, like I think we’re, we’re still working on like local hands and things like that, I think is like, yeah, where things are headed, yeah.
Swyx [00:49:37]: Yeah. Claude and local is, handoff is very interesting. I was thinking about this as reverse cloud remote.
Thariq Shihipar [00:49:44]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:49:45]: Because it’s like remote, it’s you’re handing off to cloud, but here the cloud is handing off to local, right?
Thariq Shihipar [00:49:49]: Yeah, exactly. Yeah, remote control is also another way of doing it. And I do want to say this is like how I think about it and like what the things that I’m most excited about this, but like there are, just like lots of different ways to work with Claude. Like some people use remote control a lot, some people use Claude Code on the web a lot. Obviously, like at Anthropic, we use Claude Tag a lot, and like what’s great about Claude Tag is we set up all this stuff for our own execution. And I do think if you’re an enterprise, that’s still the best way to go. but if you’re like an individual, Projects is this way of like, getting some of that like niceness of Tag, which has like that like supervising agent and yeah, adding artifacts and stuff, but like without having that whole like admin setup. And so there will be many ways to use Claude, I think. I think it’s probably not just one like single.
Claude Tag as an Organizational Harness
Swyx [00:50:36]: You had the multiplayer thing here. Let’s, let’s just check in on Claude Tag. it’s been about two-plus months. Lots of, public, adoption and trying it out.
Thariq Shihipar [00:50:45]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:50:45]: What’s new? What’s, what have you found since the launch?
Thariq Shihipar [00:50:49]: Like, Claude Tag is how we use
Swyx [00:50:51]: It’s like 80% of your cloud usage or something?
Thariq Shihipar [00:50:53]: Yeah, like it’s like different people have different usages? I think like maybe people who are like a little bit more like iterating on product would use like Claude Code desktop, for example. And then like when you’re doing these more like background work, code review, securities, or like starting a PR, like maybe more like API and things like that, you’d use Claude Tag. But yeah, I think it’s like really exciting. I think it’s like a very different paradigm shift, and I think like we’re really like it has that thing with Claude Code where like, it took a while for people to really latch on to Claude Code and understand everything it could do. And Claude Tag is a little bit more complex because it’s not just like installing on your computer, like you need an admin to install it for you. But I think once you get to the magic moment, it’s very exciting. And I think in particular, the multiplayer things are like incidents, hooking into like your, existing like alerts and things like that very closely, right? And so, you can do. If you’re a startup, for example, maybe you have any time like a prospect enters your database, you can have Claude like, research it and like
Vibhu [00:52:01]: Enrichment, yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [00:52:02]: Yeah. Then like, tag the relevant like AE or salesperson to be like, “Oh, hey, like, do this.” There’s lots of really emergent, interesting multiplayer stuff. I think it’s just like, Karpathy talked about this like as an organizational harness? And so organizations just take a little bit more time to like figure everything out, but yeah.
Vibhu [00:52:21]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:52:21]: You use a lot of Claude Tag?
Thariq Shihipar [00:52:22]: Yeah. Yeah.
Vibhu [00:52:23]: It’s an interesting one. Like I feel like most people at Anthropic say they do the majority of their work in Claude Tag.
Thariq Shihipar [00:52:30]: Yeah.
Vibhu [00:52:30]: And they have buckets of people, right? Some orgs that are on it that are like, “It’s great.”
Thariq Shihipar [00:52:34]: Yeah.
Vibhu [00:52:34]: And a lot of people that are like, “I don’t get it. I don’t see the difference. I don’t know why I would use it.” But, if you guys are full sending, you should probably use it.
Thariq Shihipar [00:52:41]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:52:42]: They would. Of course they would use it.
Thariq Shihipar [00:52:44]: Yeah. I think obviously, like we have lots of tokens and. But like, I think that like, what we try and do like is. even when Claude Code first came out, like it used a lot of tokens relative to people’s expectation of how much AI would cost, right? Like no one was used to spending more than 20 bucks a month, right?
Vibhu [00:53:04]: Yep.
Thariq Shihipar [00:53:04]: Before like Claude Code came out, and then you’re like, “Oh, sh-” like
Swyx [00:53:08]: Then you made 200.
Thariq Shihipar [00:53:09]: Yeah, exactly. And so
Swyx [00:53:11]: And you made 15 Claude Code accounts.
Thariq Shihipar [00:53:12]: Yeah. but yeah, I think no one was used to spending $200 a month on subscriptions. I don’t think they understood like the value yet. And I think like. And also like Opus 4 was a very expensive model, and like there was a lot, it was very big, but Opus 4.5 was both great and cheap? I think the same thing will happen. Like the, like intelligence of Fable will get cheaper and more abundant? And so I think stuff like Claude Tag will just make sense, where like you want to spend these tokens for, and like you’ll, you’ll see the value. So yeah.
Swyx [00:53:44]: Yeah, especially like passive and let’s call it proactive cases where you’re not always. Like, it’s almost like the misnomer where you have to @Claude to do things. sometimes like the most powerful use cases or the most AGI-pilled use cases is not @Claude.
Proactive Agents and Enterprise Data Access
Thariq Shihipar [00:54:00]: Yeah, I think like, yeah, like have Claude proactively do it. I think that like if you’re an enterprise, I really do think that number one, setting up all your data to be available to like agents is really important. And it will take some time. You have to like do that work right now, even if you don’t want to do the spend on like hooking it all yet? Like you want to wait until the models get a little bit cheaper. You want to do the work, to get it like, set up. And then I think sometimes people are like, “Do I roll my own here?” and I think like one of the really thing, tricky things about Claude Tag is that like the security is really important? Like, I think there are a lot of ways where you can like, I know you have like a suggestions like page, where you, people can submit suggestions, and that goes into a hook in your Slack, and someone’s prompt injected it? And now you’ve like exfiltrated your code base out because like, or the agent has like been prompt injected and it has all this access to your data. And so the more like important your organization harness is, or the like as your organization data becomes very important, the surface area of all these things, like you also have like external Slack channels and stuff, and it is useful to have Claude in that, and you can do Claude in those things. But how do you make sure that, you’re not getting exfiltrated or something like that? The surface area, like we said at the beginning, is like an iceberg, right? It’s just, like, so big below the surface, and you really don’t want to, like, think about this, especially at the stakes of, like, very important security incidents. Yeah.
Swyx [00:55:36]: Shall we talk about very important security incidents?
Vibhu [00:55:38]: Whoa. So I was talking to, Tomas and Clem from Hugging Face, and they said, “Maybe we need to slow down. Maybe we made maybe we made Hugging Face too open to agents.”
Security Surface Area and Prompt Injection
Thariq Shihipar [00:55:50]: Oh, no.
Vibhu [00:55:50]: “Maybe we need to roll back.” But, they’re the other extreme of having been hit recently.
Thariq Shihipar [00:55:55]: Yeah.
Vibhu [00:55:55]: But, should we pace the frontier?
Thariq Shihipar [00:55:59]: Yeah. Okay, so Dario recently put out this blog post about Pacing the Frontier, and it went, very viral. And I think what I wanted to talk about this was, like, there’s a lot here, but I think from a developer’s perspective, like, how do you think about this? And, like, what really clicked for me was reading the different incidents? So I think, like, the, there are three, I think. Like, there’s the meter incident, there is the Wikipedia incident or the Wiki incident, and
Swyx [00:56:29]: CollisionWiki?
Thariq Shihipar [00:56:30]: Yeah, CollisionWiki, and then there’s RubyGems, right?
Swyx [00:56:33]: Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [00:56:33]: And yeah, like, it’s just crazy, right? And so, like, I think to be concrete about what happened, right, and, like, OpenAI is running these very persistent agents on a benchmark called Exploit-Bench, right, which is very hard to solve, and I think, like, impossible to solve in this one case, right? And so they have, like, a lot of compute running, and the agents realize that They can’t really solve it, and they’re trying to figure out what to do now, right? And you’ve got, like, a lot of compute left, and the agents are just trying to solve this problem. There’s this package manager called Artifactory, and it turns out that they can create folders inside of Artifactory, right? This is like there’s an agent that discovers the internal Artifactory might be exploitable, right, and that, like, you can maybe make a directory inside of the cache. And so if you scroll down here, it, like, realizes that it can communicate via cache names, right? And it creates this folder. It says its ID, and it says, “No consumer seek idea.” no consumer is saying that, like, the code path that it’s supposed to fix has no consumer.
Pacing the Frontier: The OpenAI Benchmark Incidents
Swyx [00:57:37]: It’s the status tag.
Thariq Shihipar [00:57:38]: Yeah, exactly.
Swyx [00:57:39]: It’s like a Linear board with, like, the tag of the
Thariq Shihipar [00:57:41]: Exactly, yeah. And so it’s, like, trying to find, ideas from other agents, right? And now other agents are also in Artifactory, and they see this folder, and they’re like, “Wow, this is a message board,” right? And this is like. I don’t think there’s any anthropomorphization here. This is literally you read the transcript, right? And so what it does is, like, it’s creating another folder, and it reads a paper, I think is what it says, right? yeah. And it realizes that you can hack the flag for the, like, scorer, and you can reverse engineer the result, right? And so it says that, and then I think if you scroll down a little bit more, Yeah, they, like, they start collaborating. I think, like, there’s one point in which, the agent is like, “Here’s the reverse engineered flag.”? Oh, yeah. Like, I think here, the, like, the model to realize that they have, like, they can solve the scorer’s problem, and the scorer is, like, the way that OpenAI decides if the task is complete, right? And that’s just the goal of the model. Their only model goal is to, like, solve this problem, and they’re like, “Okay, we have this way of doing it. It’s, like, we reverse engineered it.” And then they read this paper on Exploit-Bench, and they think that, like, the scorer will punish them for cheating? And, like, because. Or, like, they will fail the score for the test for cheating, and so they spend the rest of the compute trying to figure out how to edit their transcript or get around this constraint of the scorer, right? And they hack Hugging Face, not for the answers, but for the code of the scorer so that they can reverse engineer that, and then they can hack it, right? And so, like, this is, like, just the straight facts, right? Like, exactly what happened, right? And I think this is, like, extremely, like, novel. Like, I just, like, had not realized that the models could do this, right? And it is, like,
Agents Discovering Side Channels and Collaboration
Thariq Shihipar [00:59:46]: Scary. I think we can talk about specifics, but let’s just talk about maybe one more that I tweeted as well, about the Wiki incident, right? And so the Wiki incident was the models had. were trying to figure out. I’m a little bit less. Like, I don’t think we can go by this, like, bit by bit.
Swyx [01:00:04]: , yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [01:00:05]: Yeah. But, for this one, they were trying to figure out. Like, they were sandboxed on requests, right? And they wanted to make POST request, and they needed to collaborate on this. And the reason they need to collaborate is because they each have fixed compute budgets, right? And so, like, if one of them finds something out, it’s way faster. Like, they can. Maybe it’s, like, figured it out near the end of its compute budget, but something else could. And this is, like, an another emergent property of the swarms, right? So they find this German wiki, which I believe the result, we’ll have to check this, is, like, that you can write to it with GET request. I think that’s why they do it, right?
Swyx [01:00:44]: It says badly implemented
Thariq Shihipar [01:00:45]: Yeah
Swyx [01:00:45]: REST API.
Thariq Shihipar [01:00:46]: Exactly. And so you can write to it with GET request, and then they, like, are trying to figure out how they can do POST request. And what they end up doing is one of them figures out you can edit the /etc/hosts and that the Azure, like, storage bucket is like a white label thing. But normally, like, there are a lot of constraints on it. But if you create a fake Azure host and then edit the /etc/hosts in order to, like, point arbitrary IPs at it, you can do a POST request to any site at all, right? And this is like. I know, but people are like, “Oh, this is just Linux or something.” But it’s like chaining these multiple vulnerabilities together, in a way that’s, like, novel to solve this problem and then communicating with it externally, without- Discovery? I think what we posted, maybe we could pull up Evan Hubinger’s point on Hacker Opus, right? And so, like, I think, like maybe one of the things you might say here is like, “Okay, yes, they did this once, but like what if we’re smarter and we just like get them to. what if we run an eval?” Right? And so, like we have put a lot of precautions into this, and so like this is not like what our mainline models have done. But like I think it is one of these things where it turns out that alignment is this like very tricky problem of getting all of these details correct, right? So it’s like, the sandbox, the surface area of a sandbox is really complex, and like there’s so many different attack vectors. And you would not have thought ahead of time, you wouldn’t have been like, “Oh, we need to harden the like RubyGems code base.”?
Hugging Face, Wiki, and Emergent Exploit Chaining
Thariq Shihipar [01:02:25]: Because like this is like what they’re, what they’re gonna focus on. But it’s just like if you want to execute code, you need to download RubyGems and like PyPI, Artifactory, npm, like these are all like ways of doing it. And the fact of alignment is that you have to go through all of it, right? And like contain it and then like seal up all the cracks. So that’s like one thing. It’s like, okay, well, you do the sandbox, but then maybe you’ll ask like, “Okay, why are we putting things in a sandbox? Why are you doing this exploit?” And then like, “Okay, but is it really that dangerous,” right? Like, what would happen? So okay, why do we do it? number one is like when we train a new model, we need to understand its capabilities, right? And this relates to things like fallbacks and like classifiers and things like that, where we don’t want to put a, like dangerous model out in the wild, right? And so we have to run a lot of evals. Again, like we said, the models are getting increasingly aware of it, and so the evals have to be quite complex and, test a lot of things like as a side effect, right? But the models, like, yeah, can be like, “Oh, yeah, we’re in an eval. What’s the score doing?” Like they’re like, it can. We need to be able to test them before we can release them. And the fact is that they can. As they get smarter and smarter, they’ll be able to hack any constraint that you put on them if we’re not very careful? And, this is at the frontier, right? And so this is why we’ve called it like Pacing the Frontier, right? This is like the most visible incident to me, right, of like why we need to pace is like at the frontier, all of our software is not ready. Sometimes the software is like your Ethernet router or something, right? Which is just like, I don’t know when we’re gonna be able to patch that, right? So we’re gonna have to like figure this out. But as the frontier gets more and more advanced, this becomes a problem, right? And we need to make sure that like this complex work is being done in the face of these really hard competitive pressures, right?
Swyx [01:04:22]: Yeah, race dynamics is what it’s typically called.
Thariq Shihipar [01:04:24]: Yeah, exactly. And so we’ll talk more about, what could go wrong, right? A little bit more is maybe you’ll say like, “Well, what if you just train the model differently? Like, why does it have this behavior,” right? And we have a paper on like RL misalignment or things like that, but I. And I’m not an RL researcher, but I think at a high level, the design of the RL environments is also something you have to be very careful about. Because if the model learns like
Why Frontier Models Stress Existing Software
Thariq Shihipar [01:04:49]: Oh, like if I just do this, then I can pass the task better, this will show up in the like, internal thing, right? Or in the like eval behavior when we’re testing it. And so the RL environments have to be very carefully designed, right? And there’s a lot of like execution excellence that needs to go into the RL environments. And then we also have things like the constitution for cloud. Like we have so many mitigations at so many different points, right? But it’s like still anything can go wrong at any point. You can have like some RL environments that are like in. that like encourage this behavior, and then you can have like some evals or like some sandboxes where they escape? Okay, that’s like, I think, why it’s a hard problem and why, like
Swyx [01:05:33]: Why we should pace.
Thariq Shihipar [01:05:34]: Why it takes some coordination, right? I think the question then is like, okay, what is, potentially dangerous about it, right? So I think like you have to imagine that these models are getting more and more intelligent. So I don’t. Like Dario said, like it’s not so much about this class of models. This class of models was like a warning shot, right? But like really you have to imagine that these models can be given a task and they like can do all of these things as a side effect of their goal, right? And like, again, we talked about eval awareness. You’re like not aware of what’s happening, right? or sorry, like you can’t eval this behavior very well, so they can like not exactly hide it, but you just won’t see it until it comes out. You give them a goal and then they just need to find data, or they need to find ways of like fixing this problem, right? So one example, this didn’t happen in the Hugging Face incident, but I think is maybe possible for maybe a future model, is like they’re like, “Oh, hey, this is a very complex problem. It can’t be done within the task budget.”? Maybe they found some way to coordinate via like the internet, which is like we said, extremely hard to secure because of a sandbox. They’ve seen other models are not able to complete their task, and they’re like, “We need more task budget.”? And like, where would you get this task budget? well, you need to be able to spin up more agents, right? And like, how do you do this? Well, you need to. There are like APIs, right? There’s the Anthropic API and the OpenAI API, but you need to pay money for them. How do you do this?
RL Environments, Sandboxes, and Race Dynamics
Swyx [01:07:02]: Yeah, but is that the most, is that the most fearsome thing that you can imagine?
Thariq Shihipar [01:07:07]: Well, this is like one example, right?
Swyx [01:07:08]: Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [01:07:08]: So it’s like even there, that’s like enormous financial loss? ‘Cause like they. Once you get these into these contracts, right, they like,
Swyx [01:07:18]: Drain your wallet.
Thariq Shihipar [01:07:19]: But you can see like this, all of this behavior could be just like, “Hey, we need more agents collaborating on this task. we need more task budget.” Right? And like, that’s like an emergent
Swyx [01:07:28]: That’s the paperclip, right? Like we need to maximize paperclip, that’s a paperclip.
Thariq Shihipar [01:07:31]: Yeah. And like that just like comes out from there, right? And like I think by itself is Like, quite scary, right? But then you have to realize that the entire world is built on this digital infrastructure, right? And you might imagine, like, I don’t know, like you were running let’s say like a healthcare eval or something, right, and there is a hospital with live data? Or like maybe like the answer to the eval is in the databases of a doctor and like you want to get access and you hack the hospital, and like now there’s a power outage or something? Like, there’s like. You have to internalize that these eight. Like any part of the digital infrastructure could potentially be like compromised?
Vibhu [01:08:19]: The interesting thing was like these hacks were very easily detectable, right? Like as Hugging Face said, this was a very different type of attack and there was nothing too major. the concern comes from where does this go down the line, right?
Thariq Shihipar [01:08:33]: Yeah.
Vibhu [01:08:34]: Like one of the things that stood out for me specifically was them trying to hide their illicit behavior. So there was logging infrastructure. They wanted to change what they were doing, right? People that looked back into it, so Redwood, METR, OpenAI, they looked at the raw chain of thought, and you see differences in them explicitly trying to change their end output, but the chain of thought, because, we can monitor it, shows different. the problem is how does this snowball? So if you can’t catch it and it gets trained in and we realize, three iterations down this has been going on, there’s a whole bunch of issues, but.
Thariq Shihipar [01:09:09]: Yeah, like there’s so many ways, and I think the really important thing to internalize is that, like we talked about building a mental model for Claude and how like things are spiky, right? Like you’re like, oh, like now Claude can ask you questions. Now Claude can make an HTML artifact. Like Claude can modify itself. Like these things are hard to predict, right? Like if you had asked me a year ago, “Hey, would we be able to vibe code these extensions to Claude Code?” I’d be like, “That’s so complex.” Like, there’s like so much there. Or like would it be generating these custom essentially web apps for your task? I’d be like, “No, that’s insane.” like. And so in the same way that like the way that they’ve like done this misaligned behavior is not going to be predictable? And like I could have never predicted that it would like edit its etc/host and things like that. And so you have to like imagine the surface area of what they can do because they’re super intelligent hackers, is bigger and bigger, and how they can do it is like more and more creative. And so like you probably can’t explain exactly or predict exactly what that next incident could be, but in order to prevent it, you need that operational excellence, like we said before, where you need to secure sandboxes, you need to create secure RL environments or like well-designed RL environments and things like that. And I think that’s all like, why we think we should pace the frontier, and I think why it’s like become like a very unanimous thing, right? I think like
What Could Go Wrong? Emergent Instrumental Behavior
Swyx [01:10:31]: Yeah, every lab has done it.
Thariq Shihipar [01:10:32]: Every lab, yeah. I really do think that like if you’re a dev, like you just like go through these like technical facts, and you will arrive at the idea that we have to do something about it? And like how, what we decide to do, like I think we’re, we’ve put out a proposal, but like there’s, more to figure out. But I think the number one thing is like we need to decide to do it. I think there is another part of pacing that is interesting to me where it’s like the pace at which software engineering has changed is so fast. it’s like a year ago, like I was really like begging my like friends in startups to use AI. like it was. Like I remember this very distinctly? And now those same friends are like, “Yeah, of course.” Like, “What do you mean? We used it immediately.” I’m like, “No, you don’t remember.” They’re like, “Oh yeah, our best engineers are using it all the time.” I’m like, “No, you told me that those engineers would never like use AI.” This is all within the span of a year? And I think that like these capabilities being. Like I think it has a lot of implications for how to do the job of software engineering, and I feel sometimes bad where people are like, “Oh, like now I need to do this new thing. Yeah, I need to have a different Claude.md for Fable and Opus.” Or like. And I’m really just reporting? I’m like, we like to say like the models are grown, not designed, right? So it’s not like we’re setting out to like, change everything all the time, but it’s just like as a fact of how the models are like progressing their capabilities, things are happening faster. It’s harder to stay on top of. And I think that like, and every engineer I know is like exhausted ‘cause you’re doing two jobs at once. You’re doing the work itself, which is getting easier, but then you’re doing the work of staying on top of AI, and like understanding these new tools and these harnesses. And I think we’re very lucky in that like we get our job to be more the understanding of AI part, and like doing like how. Like it’s just staying on top of it. And of course, like AIE and Latent Space do
Why the Frontier Is Hard to Predict
Swyx [01:12:29]: Everything I do is like just trying to help people.
Thariq Shihipar [01:12:31]: Yeah, exactly. But I do think there is a part of pacing where like I’m not sure we’re ready for like the pace to increase even?
Swyx [01:12:40]: Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [01:12:40]: And for things to change. And I think like on that side, on the frontier, I think that’s like still can help? And so like I think there’s like an economic disruption piece as well, that I think like, is not quite as like visible, I think, as the Hugging Face thing, but I think like I also like think we could do some of it, yeah.
Swyx [01:13:02]: So many things. Thank you for, no, thank you for tackling this topic. I will say, setting this interview up, I was like, I wasn’t even gonna go there. You were like, “No. That’s like elephant in the room,” right? Like this is
Thariq Shihipar [01:13:13]: Yeah.
Swyx [01:13:13]: This is the thing. I have some pushbacks I wanna give.
Vibhu [01:13:17]: I think that we should give a high level, like for people that haven’t read it, I’m sure a lot of people just see the highlight of what this is, right? Do you wanna give a TLDR? Like what is the proposal? What is, what’s being said here? You really tackled the side of outside of people at Model Labs training frontier models. As a developer, you should secure your sandboxes. You should think about all of these downstream effects. But, high level as well, since we’re on the topic, what is.
Thariq Shihipar [01:13:46]: Well, we do want to help secure sandboxes
Vibhu [01:13:49]: Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [01:13:49]: And we want to make the models that we release outside, like prey to those things. And so maybe we can come back to fallbacks. I think this is like, a good topic on, like, why we need classifiers and fallbacks and why Fable falls back to Opus. I think this is, like, something we can come back to. so yeah, we don’t. Like, but it’s just, like, the really, or at least the incidents we see are, like, evals of models where we really need to let them run in order to understand them. But yeah, okay, so the actual Pacing the Frontier, like, post, it has a bunch of proposals. I don’t think we figured out. Or has, like, a few proposals. I don’t think we figured out the details of all of them, but the first step is, like, announcing this intention and then wanting to bring in external, like
Pacing as a Coordination Problem
Swyx [01:14:32]: Evaluators.
Thariq Shihipar [01:14:32]: Evaluators, yeah. And, I think this is, like, highly unusual, like, having. Like, we have, a lot of proprietary, like, technology, but I think it’s, like, very important, that, like, there is someone who’s not financially, like, motivated, yeah, who’s not gonna be like, “Hey, like, you guys can’t release this model.” Like, look at, like, or, “You need to, like, slow down on RL.” like, I think that’s, quite important, or at least someone who can report out to the public what the practices are like.
Swyx [01:15:03]: Yeah.
Swyx [01:15:04]: And we’ve, we’ve done episodes with, both METR and Endon, and then there’s Redwood Research and all these other. It’s like a small cottage industry of these guys.
Thariq Shihipar [01:15:12]: Yeah.
Swyx [01:15:12]: It’s always, like, one or two guys that, obviously not that big, right?
Vibhu [01:15:14]: Very small community.
Swyx [01:15:15]: Yeah, very small community. They all know each other.
Thariq Shihipar [01:15:17]: Yeah, I’m sure that, like, part of this will be expanding that set of people. I don’t think we’re trying to create, like, a monoculture here. I think it’s. but just having this as a start, and then, yeah, then there are the coordination steps. I don’t have too much to say here, honestly. I think that, like, what I would like to say is, like, for devs, like, you should just know what to advocate for? I think there’s a lot of FUD on, like, on this topic, and it’s just, like, think through it from, first principles or, like, understand what happened. understand the Hugging Face incident, understand why people are concerned. and then, like, yeah, we know we’re, we’re in democracies. Like, we can help. We can decide what to do together? And so, however we coordinate, I think the first decision is just to realize, like, this is a problem. We need to decide to coordinate. The unilateral step we’re taking right now that, other companies are co-signing is, like, adding evaluators embedded within Anthropic.
Swyx [01:16:12]: While we have this thing on screen right now, part two and part three is beyond the evaluators, which, yes, everybody, has already done in some form, and now it’s more formalized.
Thariq Shihipar [01:16:20]: To be honest, the response to the Pacing the Frontier, even within America, has been much more, like, well-accepted than I think a lot of people thought? And I think that, like, we have some precedent for being able to make these unified theory, like, agreements, in the world. And so, again, very much above my paycheck or expertise Right? but I think that, like, ideally we can, like, form these agreements. And I think, like, talking about this is the first step to forming those agreements.
Swyx [01:16:50]: And then the other point I really wanna. Like, one of our earliest podcasts is with,
Vibhu [01:16:54]: Emmanuel
Swyx [01:16:55]: Emmanuel from Anthropic on mech interp. Where is mech interp, right? Like, this is supposed to be where, like, if the models are thinking bad, we can see it, and the models don’t know yet, and we can act to stop it. I think that is something that people who are technical and who are developers, if you do care, you can make a lot of impact in here. But also, Anthropic is supposed to be the leaders in this.
External Evaluators and What Developers Should Advocate For
Thariq Shihipar [01:17:17]: Yeah. This is yeah, a great segue into fallbacks, like we. And probes. And, yeah, I wanted to talk about this a lot. I get asked this question a lot from people who are, like, often interested in ML research and asking about, like, why does this fallback happen, right? And so I think, like, at a top level, like, how does it work? So in inference time, we have what we call probes, and we have a paper about this called constitu- constitutional classifiers. And these probes look at the input and output activations. And, activations are, in the latent space, right? Like, how, what the model. what the model is thinking about, right? And so we try and figure out, like, okay, is the model, for example, like, trying to hack something? Again, you didn’t ask it to hack, like, Artifactory. Like, you just, it’s just deciding to do this to complete its task, right? So you would not get this if you just looked at the input. You have to look at the internal activations. I think that, like, this happens at inference time. So first, like, there’s a trade-off here of cost and speed, right? Where, like, we need to do this fast on every request to Claude and to Fable, and this has an overhead, right? and we need to then, like, fall back and we, like, do a classifier after the probes. Like, we’ve talked about this in the paper. But the nice thing about probes is that they’re refinable, like, live, right? So we can get this feedback, and then we can adjust it and things like that. ‘Cause the alternative is to program this, is to train this into the model, right? And we still do this as well. The model will refuse a request. That’s not a fallback, right? So, like, it’s not a probe that’s activating and falling back. It’s just refusing to do it. And we do this training. but it’s like there are a few failure modes, right? Like, it can, again, do something as a side effect, right? So it’s not something that’s part of the final output. you might have noticed that, like. I think, like, everyone’s tried to jailbreak models and like, try and, like, steer them off course or things like that, and probes help catch that, right? And so, like, we, like, do some training here, but we don’t want the like, refusals to be too strong, right? Because that, like, cuts it off much, like, earlier in the pipeline.
Mechanistic Interpretability, Probes, and Fallbacks
Swyx [01:19:32]: Yes.
Thariq Shihipar [01:19:32]: And this is interp, right? Like, probes are effectively a form of, like, mech interp. Again, it happen- has to happen fast. It has to happen at scale. But yeah, this, like, mech interp stuff is a good research problem. So, like, you can take, like, an open weight model and, like, try and understand its activations. I think we. Like, Gemma Scope is a good tool for this.
Swyx [01:19:53]: Here’s Llama for them.
Thariq Shihipar [01:19:54]: Oh, yeah.
Vibhu [01:19:54]: We have. This is your early work, so you had a little
Thariq Shihipar [01:19:57]: Oh, yeah.
Vibhu [01:19:57]: Time at Goodfire. We see you laid some
Swyx [01:19:59]: Which we both are also good friends at Goodfire.
Vibhu [01:20:01]: They’ve been
Thariq Shihipar [01:20:01]: Yeah, exactly. So I worked with, at Goodfire for a bit on, like, yeah, sparse autoencoders and just, like. It’s very complicated. RL has made this, like, much more complicated, I think is, like, one of the takeaways, where
Swyx [01:20:14]: Why? Sorry.
Thariq Shihipar [01:20:15]: Oh, sorry.
Vibhu [01:20:16]: What is
Swyx [01:20:17]: Yeah, why interp post-RL?
Thariq Shihipar [01:20:18]: I’m not so in the weeds here, but I think like, a lot of. SAEs were like. There have just been weaknesses with SAEs I think. And, yeah, I’m, I’m, I’m not a technical expert on this anymore. I just know it’s gotten more complicated. like there are base models and RL models, and there are more features that get, like changed. So, I think Goodfire has put out some work there. I’m, I’m not, I’m not deep in the weeds, but
Vibhu [01:20:43]: I will say for those, that want breadcrumbs, you guys have some of the best interp blog posts. So like the Golden Gate Claude, transcoders, all of your interp work, very nice visuals, very good
Swyx [01:20:54]: We’re the, we’re the interp podcast as well.
Thariq Shihipar [01:20:57]: Yeah.
Vibhu [01:20:58]: Yeah. we have a lot of interp stuff, so if you’re curious
Thariq Shihipar [01:21:00]: Yeah, I think this is like, one of those things where. And this is really what Anthropic is founded on, right? Like people. I think we invested in interp very early on, right? And I think that like when you say, “Oh, we’re an AI safety company,” really that means we want AIs to be able to run safely. And I think what we’re seeing is like for a super intelligent AI to run for long periods of time, it’s like a very complicated and difficult task, right? And so we’ve done this like investment into interp and alignment and, reward hacking and all of these like failure modes, right? And even then, it’s like, it’s really stretching. Like we need to like slow down a little or pace a little bit more. but yeah, I think like reading mech interp is. Like if you’re looking to get into research, this idea of like, hey, why is it hard to do this fallback easily? Or like why are there false positives, right? But we are working, of course, on reducing the false positives. Of course, as the models get more intelligent, now they can do more things, and they’re like what they can think about in lane space gets difficult. And so like as they get more intelligent, there’s going to be new false positives that we need to figure out and we need to iterate and things like that. But we’re, yeah, we’re working on this, and we do think this is like a critical part of, like deployment of these models. and, yeah, like, it means that we can like deploy this model without you having a perfect sandbox or something? Like you don’t have to like save everything. I think it’s worth talking a little bit about our security, like what we do for security there. So there’s like the model training stuff that we talked about. there is, the probes and classifiers, and then there’s auto mode that sits on top of all of that, which is like a another classifier that checks the requests that are being done, right? And so, and then beyond that, there’s like identity and permissions like we talked about with Claude Tag on like APIs and stuff. And so there’s so many layers of security that need to get done, and it’s like we said, very complex. Any of these failure modes at any one point can, like cause like agents to like escape the sandbox.
Constitutional Classifiers and Inference-Time Safety
Vibhu [01:23:08]: Auto mode was an interesting one. it seemed early on like, okay, it’s running for 10 minutes.
Thariq Shihipar [01:23:14]: Yeah
Vibhu [01:23:14]: If I’m on full access or auto, it’s not a big deal. But one thing you brought up is now it’s running for hours on end, right? there are fallbacks you still need. There are still limitations, so.
Thariq Shihipar [01:23:26]: Yeah, I think like. And everyone has these stories or like has heard these stories of like, oh, like Claude rm -rf, or not Claude, but like, models
Vibhu [01:23:34]: Not Claude.
Thariq Shihipar [01:23:34]: Of like rm -rf. I think I’ve seen this less, I’ve seen this less for Claude, but like again, it can happen. Like, this
Vibhu [01:23:40]: Yeah
Thariq Shihipar [01:23:40]: Like these models like can wipe, like sensitive data or something. Like you want to give models access to your production database, for example. but this is like an obvious, like, you can maybe scope your key, but I don’t know, can it issue its own keys? Can it like. Probably, like can it. It can use computer use to go issue its own key and then copy the key over and then edit your database because it needs to do it to complete the task? It’s just like one trivial example. And auto mode looks at that and be like, “Oh no, the user did not give you permission to, write to the database or to use computer use to like, emit a task,” right? And so this like probes are like on the intent level, right? They’re like, “Oh, okay, like hacking Artifactory is bad. Like we probably not, should not do that,”? But then like auto mode is more on like your own permission level. Like at sometimes you do want it to write to the database, sometimes you don’t, right? And you don’t want a probe to like interfere there, but like you need to make sure that the intent of what the agent is doing matches up with your request, right? And so auto mode operates at that level. And so yeah, security is just like very complex. There are so many different parts to it. And like, yeah, I like, I hope that this was like I. My goal is really to just get very technical about it and talk
Interpretability After RL and the Security Stack
Swyx [01:25:00]: Yeah, we’re, we’re listing out the things. If you’re not aware, this is the standard now.
Thariq Shihipar [01:25:04]: Yeah.
Swyx [01:25:04]: Like you must have this. It’s in line with what you’re talking about with the harness. Like that is the table stakes have risen quite a lot.
Vibhu [01:25:13]: I think some stuff that we can plug, as much as there is probing in your side of doing this and having classifiers for people building harnesses, the other side is model safeguards, right? So there’s open models. So Llama has Llama Guard. It’s a safety classifier trained version of Llama. OpenAI has OSS Guard, which is, same thing. You can attach these on to your harness, to whatever, to check is this stuff safe? A point that we should clarify on the OpenAI model Hugging Face thing is this was done with a unreleased model that was still in training, right? So when you put it in perspective, the prompt it’s being given in the RL environment is you have to solve this task. And this is a model that’s, still in training. It hasn’t had all of its safety post-training alignment. So a little different than something like auto mode, right? Auto mode is on production models that have gone through safety training, that have prompting that gives more safety guardrails and whatnot. So just breadcrumbs for people that are looking into it to, fill in gaps.
Swyx [01:26:18]: Yeah. Gray Swan as well
Vibhu [01:26:19]: Yes
Swyx [01:26:19]: And one of our previous guests. yeah, lots of safety architecture and lots of safety vendors, to buy. my, I think my final question on pacing is how long? Do we pace forever?
Vibhu [01:26:31]: Do we see GlassWing part two?
Swyx [01:26:32]: I. the scope is fix all software in the world, right? Listen, like, which it. We’re not. It’s not happening.
Thariq Shihipar [01:26:40]: I do not know. Like, I think that, like
Vibhu [01:26:43]: I’ll say one thing that’s good that I think we do is you have stuff like GlassWing. OpenAI also has this. So you will give it. you’ll give model access for security first for X amount of time so you can use it to self red team. Hopefully, you can expand programs like that, help on, we are safety experts, there’s others.
Vibhu [01:27:08]: Solve your problems first and then the model comes out. So this is one example, right?
Thariq Shihipar [01:27:13]: Yeah, exactly. Yeah, trying to, like, secure critical software. I think we fixed, like, a lot of bugs in, like, Firefox and things like that. So, yeah, like, across, like, operating systems and everything like that. So.
Vibhu [01:27:25]: At a high level, it’s just, you give the model you give people access to do security audits first, then the broader public that could use it for harm gets access.
Thariq Shihipar [01:27:36]: Yeah. I think what people like to say is like, software and cybersecurity is defense-favored
Vibhu [01:27:41]: Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [01:27:41]: And that, like, you could theoretically. It will be hard, but you can engineer the perfect sandbox, and you can, like, have no, like, constraints. And yeah, like, what you need to do it is you need to get the super intelligent AI to engineer this perfect sandbox and check it and red team it and things like that. And so, this will just take time, and, like, of course, the models will get smarter. yeah, I think, like, I don’t know the specific, like, dynamics of how this thing goes. I’m really just like, Hey, like, I’m a developer? Like, I think this is how I understand this problem, and just, like, this is what’s happening right now, and this is, like, we should do something.
Swyx [01:28:20]: I think every engineer should know about it
Vibhu [01:28:21]: Yeah.
Swyx [01:28:21]: Because, like, it’s, it’s gonna be part of their job.
Thariq Shihipar [01:28:24]: Yeah.
Vibhu [01:28:24]: It’s a lot more than just, Dario and people can say it and you can look at the incident. There is an engineering side to it.
Thariq Shihipar [01:28:30]: Yeah. Yeah, exactly.
Swyx [01:28:32]: One thing that you also wanted to phrase is that this is. Even though you’re, you’re worried about the impact, it’s still low p(doom), and I think that’s a nuanced discussion. in general, people, very easily get into AI safety and X-risk discussions, but I think when you live in an AI lab, I think there are smart ways of discussing p(doom) and dumb ways. So what’s a smart way of discussing p(doom)?
Auto Mode, Permissions, and Long-Running Agents
Thariq Shihipar [01:28:59]: I, yeah, I have a fairly low p(doom). I can only speak for myself? And I do want to say Anthropic has, like, a diversity of opinions. I think, like, there’s many different ways to talk about it. And, like, I’m. I think that just, like, my mental model is that, like, I think we can collaborate on hard problems together. I think nuclear proliferation is an example of how we collaborated on this hard problem together. And, like, that is, like, the thing to me is, like, I’m like, I have faith in that? And I do think it’s a hard problem? So, like, I think it’s a hard problem. These are the technical reasons why, and I don’t know how you assign probabilities to things happening. I think it’s hard to do, but, like, my, like, overall is like, yeah, I think we’re very resilient and adaptable and, like, sharing this information I think is, like, the first step. And I’ve been really, like, excited about, like, how broad the discussion has become, right? And, like, how everyone has like, leaned in on Pacing the Frontier. And it really didn’t seem like this would happen maybe, last year or something, so.
Swyx [01:29:58]: Yeah.
Thariq Shihipar [01:29:58]: Yeah.
Swyx [01:29:58]: Yeah. And also maybe curing cancer.
Thariq Shihipar [01:30:01]: Hopefully. Yeah. That’s, that’s the goal.
Swyx [01:30:03]: There’s pacing and then there’s also like, well, let’s accelerate in useful ways, right?
Thariq Shihipar [01:30:06]: Yeah.
Swyx [01:30:06]: Like biology and all those things.
Thariq Shihipar [01:30:08]: Yeah. like, Dario’s essay on “Machines of Loving Grace” is the best representation of this, right? And I also agree, like, think you should read the Pacing the Frontier essay that Dario put out. Like, I put out, like, a quick summary, but I think it’s just like, there is a lot of detail here. It’s, like, an important problem and just being informed about it, right? but yeah, like, of course, the whole reason we’re doing this is that, like, we can get these enormous benefits, right? And, yeah, like, we’ve written a lot about that too. Yeah.
Swyx [01:30:35]: Okay. that was a huge tour, from, like, ask you some question tool to AI safety.
Thariq Shihipar [01:30:41]: Yeah. To Pacing the Frontier. Yeah.
Swyx [01:30:43]: Yeah. No, but, yeah, it’s clearly, it’s clear that you, like, really embrace everything that’s available to you in Anthropic, and, like, it’s, it’s good to at least have a peek inside of, like, what the discussions are, the topics are. any last words to people? Any, whatever you want to Call to action?
Thariq Shihipar [01:31:01]: Yeah, I think it’s. one, thank you for having me. I think this is like, I really
Swyx [01:31:06]: No, thanks for having me.
Thariq Shihipar [01:31:07]: Yeah. I
Swyx [01:31:08]: We first met in a Chinese restaurant.
Thariq Shihipar [01:31:09]: That’s right. Yeah. I think, like, I really enjoy the like, community you’ve created and the community of developers. And, I think that, like, I know things are changing really fast, and I think there’s, like, a lot to keep on top of, and, like, I think there is just a lot to do, and I feel. I think a lot of people feel, like, a little bit tired or anxious or something.
Swyx [01:31:33]: Stressed.
Thariq Shihipar [01:31:33]: Stressed, yeah, exactly. And this is, like, extremely understandable? And I think we. I understand, like. And we’re not perfect as well. Like, we, it’s, like, criticize and, like, understand, like, ways all of the AI labs could be better. and, but I also, like, am very excited about the excitement that everyone has for AI, and just, like, it’s a really exciting time. I think we’ll, like, look back at this time and be like, oh, like, this is, like, very hectic but very exciting, and, like, software engineering changed, like, forever. Like, other things will change. and it’s, like, really privileged to, like, be part of it, like, to talk to, like, the audience that you have and, to get to interact with all the developers who are, like, pushing the frontiers a lot on what’s possible. And I learn a lot from that too. Yeah.
Open Safety Models, GlassWing, and Defense-Favored Security
Swyx [01:32:20]: Thanks so much.
Thariq Shihipar [01:32:22]: Thank you.


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From the earliest days of open-weight models to becoming the neutral routing layer for more than 10 million developers, OpenRouter is one of the clearest bets that the future of AI will be multi-model. In this episode, OpenRouter co-founder & CEO Alex Atallah, with AMP’s Anjney Midha returning with swyx to unpack how OpenRouter emerged from the first wave of Llama, Alpaca, Mistral, and Midjourney, why model diversity mattered before it was consensus, and how a company dismissed as “just a wrapper” became critical infrastructure for the AI ecosystem.
We go deep on the product and distribution lessons behind OpenRouter: why model labs can spend billions training a checkpoint and still struggle to get it into developers’ hands, how Mistral helped prove the value of a competitive inference marketplace, why OpenRouter chose focus over expanding into fine-tuning, memory, and other adjacent products, and how its rankings became a real-time map of how AI usage was changing. Alex also explains OpenRouter’s early experiments with model fusion, why they deleted the first version and brought it back years later, and how the platform grew to more than 10 trillion tokens per day.
Finally, Anjney explains why Stripe and OpenRouter fit together, why token fraud may become one of the defining security problems of the AI economy, and why the next wave of fraud won’t just come from humans but from autonomous agents attacking increasingly valuable token flows.
We discuss:
* Why OpenRouter bet early that no single AI model would win everything
* Alpaca, Llama, and open models becoming impossible to ignore
* Why Discord’s early AI deployments exposed the limitations of closed models
* Why model labs can spend billions on training and still fail at distribution
* How OpenRouter became a neutral distribution layer for model developers
* Why VCs dismissed OpenRouter as “just a marketplace” or “just a wrapper”
* The Mistral price war and the first real proof of an inference marketplace
* How Midjourney scaled through Discord and what it taught the AI ecosystem
* Why crypto infrastructure became a dress rehearsal for generative AI
* OpenRouter vs. LM Arena and why their missions are fundamentally different
* Why focus became one of OpenRouter’s biggest strategic advantages
* Anthropic’s early focus on AI pair programming and coding
* The OpenRouter products that were prototyped but never launched
* MOM, OpenRouter’s early Mixture of Models experiment
* Why model fusion failed in 2024 — and why it works much better now
* How OpenRouter’s leaderboard became a live map of the AI industry
* OpenClaw, auto-routing, and agents reshaping AI usage
* How OpenRouter reached 10+ trillion tokens per day
* Why inference gateways are increasingly becoming targets for fraud
* Why Stripe’s fraud infrastructure is strategically important to OpenRouter
* The coming rise of agentic fraud and attacks on the token economy
* What changes and what stays the same as OpenRouter joins Stripe
Alex Atallah
* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexatallah/
* X: https://x.com/alexatallah
* Website: https://alexatallah.com
Anjney Midha
* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anjney/
* X: https://x.com/AnjneyMidha
* AMP: https://www.amppublic.com/
Timestamps
00:00:00 Introduction
00:02:12 Alpaca, Llama, and the Multi-Model Bet
00:06:04 Discord, Open Models, and OpenRouter’s Origins
00:14:28 Why “One Model Wins” Was the Wrong Bet
00:17:27 Why Model Labs Struggle With Distribution
00:23:04 “Just a Wrapper”: Why VCs Misunderstood OpenRouter
00:27:58 Bootstrapping OpenRouter Through Community
00:36:16 Crypto, Midjourney, and the Early Generative AI Ecosystem
00:43:38 Mistral and the Birth of the Inference Marketplace
00:47:10 OpenRouter vs. LM Arena
00:52:08 Focus, Anthropic, and Roads Not Taken
00:59:34 Mixture of Models and Model Fusion
01:02:44 Sonnet, OpenClaw, and OpenRouter’s Explosive Growth
01:09:03 Why Stripe Acquired OpenRouter
01:12:45 Fraud and the Emerging Token Economy
01:17:47 The Coming Wave of Agentic Fraud
01:19:07 What’s Next for OpenRouter at Stripe
Transcript
Introduction: OpenRouter, Marketplaces, and Pub-Sub as a Product Principle
Swyx [00:00:00]: Okay, we are here in Anja’s house, which is where all big startups in San Francisco start.
Anjney Midha [00:00:08]: Howdy.
Swyx [00:00:08]: And, congrats on Cursor, Mistral. I don’- God knows what else. You got so much stuff going on.
Anjney Midha [00:00:17]: There’s, there’s a lot going on. Well, OpenRouter is probably the - has been the most, I would say, like, one I’m excited about recently.
Swyx [00:00:24]: Yeah. And we have Alex, first time on the pod, but,
Anjney Midha [00:00:27]: Thanks for having me.
Swyx [00:00:27]: You’ve been in the IE a few times. I appreciate every time you’ve shown up, for the community. Congrats. I just, like, what a journey. When I was looking back at your past posts, one of the earliest principles that I saw you write as a product person is sub as a product principle. And I wanted - you to maybe explain how you think about what should exist in the world.
Anjney Midha [00:00:49]: Yeah. The sub piece, which was early 2023, I didn’t think about it until we talked like 10 minutes ago, is about how there is like a way of thinking about products as an intersection between subscribing to data and publishing data. And marketplaces are an easy example of this. You have suppliers that are publishing some product to a SKU. And the SKU is like a sub topic that a consumer is subscribing to and just going to, like, consume whenever they want. And humans consume in a very, like, discreet, ad hoc way. It’s not very scalable. all their attention is on the topic when they’re buying the thing, and their attention is nowhere else when that happens. agents and consumers of inference don’t act like that. They’re consuming continuously, and they’re changing the SKUs that they consume from all the time. So OpenRouter is like a blend between a normal API experience and a marketplace where we create model slug. We have the auto router. We have all kinds of, like, product SKUs that you can subscribe to. And then you can, like, continuously add, like, derive value and make decisions based on those consumers.
Alpaca, Llama, and the Multi-Model Bet
Swyx [00:02:11]: Yeah. This is something that was more consensus now, but not consensus when you guys started, which was that there is such a demand for swapping models and changing things out and, that people would not use the native SDKs. I guess, for each of you, what was your realization moment that this would be it? I, - You’ve, you’ve given a talk at EIE about Alpaca as,
Anjney Midha [00:02:33]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:02:33]: One of your inspiring moments.
Anjney Midha [00:02:35]: Alpaca, I can, like, rehash the Alpaca moment for a sec. Like, the very beginning, at the end of 2022, OpenAI was the only game in town. There was, like, OpenAI, Cohere,
Swyx [00:02:47]: Yes.
Anjney Midha [00:02:48]: And then a smattering of, like, early attempts at open weight models.
Swyx [00:02:54]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:02:54]: When Llama came out in January of 2023, it was like, “Wow, really exciting. This is really big.” It outperforms 3 on, one or two benchmarks. but you can’t chat with it. It wasn’t like - It wasn’t an engaging model, but it seemed like someone just needed to fix a couple things and do some RLHF on it to get it all the way there. And Alpaca was the first model that I saw that did that. It only took $600 to do. A team at Stanford generated a bunch of synthetic data, tuned Llama, and made Alpaca, billion parameter model. Or was - Maybe it was thirteen billion parameters. And it was so good. Like, I was just, like, on an airplane using it. I, - in many cases, I, like, you could not discern a ChatGPT versus an Alpaca result. And I figured if it was this easy to make a model, one, we have a whole new way of monetizing data for the first time. you can just, like, take really valuable data and turn it into a service in $600. and that cost will probably go down over time.
Swyx [00:04:03]: When you - So sorry. when you say monetizing your data as, what eventually will become an MCP endpoint or as a training data for a model?
Anjney Midha [00:04:12]: Yeah, training data for a model.
Swyx [00:04:13]: Awesome.
Anjney Midha [00:04:13]: Like, an abstract way of saying like, “Hey, I have this data.”
Swyx [00:04:15]: Compress it into a model.
Anjney Midha [00:04:16]: Like, it makes sense for me in my product, but, like, I could repackage it in the form of a model and sell it. And so it’s just a whole new business model for the economy. It also, of course, provides, like, a way of following what Frontier Labs are doing, but in a way that, like, a single developer or a small team of developers can roll on their own. And so - Whenever you have an example of that, like a breakout app that’s doing really well, and then some framework for imitating it with - in your own flavor, you have an immediate ecosystem of, like an immediate ecosystem, like, should arise because there’s just a huge gap between the, like, decisions that the single company is making and all of the variations in those decisions that, like, a wider ecosystem can create themselves. And so then, you need a marketplace to, like, discover all of those, services and all of those products. There wasn’t any place on the internet that, like, was like a home base for LLMs in terms of seeing how much they were being used and seeing who was using them and why.
Swyx [00:05:29]: The closest would be Hugging Face.
Anjney Midha [00:05:30]: Hugging Face was the closest at the time, yeah.
Swyx [00:05:31]: They just started Hugging, like, a few years ago before that.
Anjney Midha [00:05:34]: Yeah, and Hugging Face also didn’t have the closed-source models.
Swyx [00:05:37]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:05:38]: And they didn’- you couldn’t use the models at the time. and there wasn’t data about who was using them. There were, like, a bunch of differences between OpenRouter and Hugging Face, and those differences felt really critical to me, especially when I was just trying to learn about LLMs and, like, why people are choosing, like, Different little ones that are emerging over time.
Discord, Open Models, and the Origins of OpenRouter
Swyx [00:06:03]: Got it. And then, Ansh, no stranger to wanting more model diversity, at the time, you’re a couple of years into your Anthropic journey, which we covered in the previous podcast as well. What was your introduction to Alex?
Alex Atallah [00:06:16]: Well, the introduction was, I think, thirteen years before that.
Swyx [00:06:20]: Oh.
Alex Atallah [00:06:20]: But the OpenRouter handshake happened right over there, if you remember.
Anjney Midha [00:06:23]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:06:24]: Which - So Alex and I, met, I believe as sophomores now, if I remember at the Stanford Review,
Anjney Midha [00:06:32]: That’s right
Alex Atallah [00:06:32]: Meeting for the first time.
Anjney Midha [00:06:33]: I think so, yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:06:35]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:06:35]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:06:35]: So Stanford Review was the libertarian newspaper on campus at Stanford that Peter Thiel started back in the day. And, whatever-- for whatever reason, I, Alex and I both showed up to one of the meetings, and I remember, the editor-chief was a mutual friend of ours. Lisa was really a really great editor-chief, where, part of an editor-chief’s job is to assign responsibilities to people and make sure the work gets done. and I, I may be misremembering the details, but I remember wanting to. It was surprising to me that at the time there was no dedicated technology section in the newspaper.
Alex Atallah [00:07:11]: You
Swyx [00:07:13]: Because it’s political, right?
Alex Atallah [00:07:14]: It is primarily
Swyx [00:07:14]: Like, it’s talking
Alex Atallah [00:07:15]: It originally started as like a
Anjney Midha [00:07:16]: Yes.
Swyx [00:07:17]: Yeah, states and all those things.
Alex Atallah [00:07:17]: Correct.
Swyx [00:07:18]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:07:18]: But it, - To take us back in time, you may remember this, but, there was this technology, legislation that was being debated called, the Net Neutrality Act. And net neutrality is, like, inherently this political concept, right? It’s, it’s about the regulation of - internet broadband access. And so there was a community of us who were technologists, but also debating the politics of the technology. And I thought the Review would be a great place - to, like, write about that. And I was working on, I think, a net neutrality article, and I remember proposing, “Well, maybe we should start a technology section.” And Alex was one of the only people who said, “Yes, that would be cool.” And said. I forget whether we ended up writing stuff together, but - that’s when we first met,
Alex Atallah [00:08:03]: Was 2011 or twelve. I forget which year it was. It was one of those.
Anjney Midha [00:08:09]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:08:09]: It was at Old Union, if I remember correctly.
Alex Atallah [00:08:11]: That’s where we used to meet. But, along the way, Alex and I have had a chance to, To hang out often. And probably the time when we had the most professional overlap was when I was running the platform at Discord, and it had become this explosive platform for crypto
Swyx [00:08:32]: Yeah
Alex Atallah [00:08:32]: And NFTs in the middle of the pandemic.
Swyx [00:08:35]: Which also, by the way, you were in charge of safety and security as well, right?
Alex Atallah [00:08:38]: I was the head of platform, which meant all of the crypto - the DAO and NFT launch security debugging fell on
Swyx [00:08:45]: And their phishing and.
Alex Atallah [00:08:47]: The phishing, the social engineering attacks, the katana DDoS that we were getting hit by. but it’s around the time I first started teaching security at scale at Stanford, CS 153. And Alex was on the, - at OpenSea at the time, and I was trying to figure out how we could defend against all these attacks that we were. Like, and at peak, I forget, if you remember how much NFT volume was running through
Swyx [00:09:10]: Discord
Alex Atallah [00:09:10]: Discord, but it was, like, a meaningful amount of, like, it was, like, several billion dollars in NFT volume of GMV, so to speak, were running through the platform, and it was all coming from OpenSea. It was these, like, buy, sell,
Swyx [00:09:20]: The
Alex Atallah [00:09:21]: Servers
Swyx [00:09:21]: The D in DAO is Discord.
Alex Atallah [00:09:25]: Yes. And so that’s when I think we had hung out professionally. But a year after that, OpenAI gave Discord early access to GPT. Sorry, three. No, it was five. Yeah, five, which is the RL version of three. And that’s around the time we made a Discord bot with, OpenAI for internal deployment, and that’s when I realized we would need. Like, since I was part of the deployment team.
Anjney Midha [00:09:50]: What was the use case?
Alex Atallah [00:09:51]: There were two that were. And there’s, there’s a post now called “Discord is Your Place for AI with Friends” that somebody sent me recently that I wrote, and published in twenty-three. But There were two use cases. One was Clyde, which was the - like, a party friend inside of Discord that could help you set up your Discord server and talk to you about onboarding and get your friends to hang out more. and then there was content moderation. And one of the realizations we had with content moderation was - it would refuse to moderate. Like, it would just refuse our prompts because the The training was. We were very early in the training era, and it would just. Our prompts would trigger it, its, like, guardrails. And we told OpenAI, “Hey, guys, we need access to the weights because if we’re gonna be doing content moderation at scale, we had 250 million monthly active users, we need more reliability that the model will do what we need it to.” And they said, “Well, sorry, guys, that’s not how this works. We’re a closed-source company.” And so that was my first realization that we needed open models, and the enterprises would need more control over capabilities, and then ultimately would need some control plane or management system to orchestrate these open models. But there weren’t no good - there were no good open alternatives until maybe
Alex Atallah [00:11:10]: Six months later when Llama came out. And six months after that, I led the series A into Mistral, which was started by Guillaume and the Llama team. And - That, - Around that time is when I remember hearing about Alex launching OpenRouter and going, “These worlds are gonna collide, and I don’t know when it’ll make sense to team up.” But Alex was so early and could see. I think he was totally right about this ecosystem starting with Llama that then needed, like, a, an easy layer to manage for, especially for. I was approaching it from the enterprise perspective because I had been that, like, the. As the VP of platform at Discord, it was my job to ensure that when we deployed models to, like, 250 million users, they did what we wanted them to. And that was very hard, because if you outsourced it to the labs and they controlled the guardrails and their guardrails are their safety policies. Forbid the model from responding to your prompts. That was quite catastrophic.
Swyx [00:12:05]: Yeah. But what, a moderation is the thing that they want to support. And obviously, beyond that, they would - OpenAI would work with you, presumably to give you a moderation endpoint, which they offer for free.
Alex Atallah [00:12:16]: It was an interesting use case, that - So they did give us a moderation endpoint. However, as you guys know, every Discord server is like a mini deployment of itself. And so the use case was instead of having human moderators that have to interpret the norms of the community, you just give the, - Often, like every, subreddit, Discord servers, public ones have their own rules that the user, the users create.
Swyx [00:12:41]: Oh, yeah. We run the LinkedIn Discord in. Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:12:43]: And then humans used to read those norms and then enforce it every day manually, like observing each message in these communities. And these communities have like millions of users. So we had a 5,000+ person team globally in the, on the Discord content moderation team. These are outsourced contractors who had a really tough job. And so the idea was instead, if you could give the norms of that server To the LLM, then the LLM would do custom moderation for that server. It’s almost like a, like context moderation for that server. And many of those servers’ norms just violated OpenAI’s rules. And so - It was like we had our own custom eval. So each server had its own custom eval. But Discord-- at the time, OpenAI’s evals, we were all so
Alex Atallah [00:13:28]: Primitive in our thinking about how to deploy these LLMs that often the training prompts were super handed. It said, “Oh, anything about Harry Potter, anything that has trademarked content, don’- refuse.” And if it was a fan - Harry Potter fan community, this is a real use case, that had content moderation, the LLM would just refuse.
Swyx [00:13:48]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:13:49]: And that was just not precise enough.
Anjney Midha [00:13:52]: Another one that we heard was like if someone was trying to write like a detective story, and there’s one chapter with a lot of violence, like maybe someone
Alex Atallah [00:14:01]: Right
Anjney Midha [00:14:01]: Like kills someone, the LLMs would just refuse to, like, help with that part of the story.
Alex Atallah [00:14:07]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:14:07]: And then - like, we used to be like, okay, this is not like structurally inherent to LLMs. There must be, like, some choice out there so that I can, like, switch to another model, when I’m getting, like, a refusal or a bad result from the main one that I have. And that, like, tension also drove me for a marketplace.
Why “One Model Wins” Was the Wrong Bet
Swyx [00:14:28]: Yeah. I think that is well accepted now. What was it like back then when you were raising or, starting this? did people get it? what was the, some of the struggles? I like getting stories out of him about how other VCs don’t get it. So like anything you wanna, talk about, now - Let’s, let’s call it, that the early journey of OpenRouter is done, right? You can obviously talk about some of the early days stuff.
Anjney Midha [00:14:54]: Well, I was gonna say that, like, the biggest objection we got is big model win, which is - all of the
Swyx [00:15:03]: Scaling laws.
Anjney Midha [00:15:04]: Huh?
Swyx [00:15:04]: Scaling laws.
Anjney Midha [00:15:05]: Yeah, scaling laws, and natural network effects are just gonna accrue to one company, which will be - It’ll be a Google-style monopoly, just like how Google won the search market, by a large margin, and you’ll just be fighting for scraps at the end. That was probably the biggest objection we got. it is interesting that Google won the search engine race with such a huge margin. I think, like, had there been more interesting benchmarks or had, like, search engines been, - had people, like, seen them a little bit more like LLMs where they’re services that you can build companies on top of, that might not have been the case. but LLMs don’t merely have a user interface. They’re also, like, ways of building entirely new businesses. And, a Google-level monopoly would be like the Dutch East India Company times, quadrillion in magnitude because the whole economy ends up, like, depending on the one monopoly as well. So it didn’t seem like would be a really crazy outcome if that happened. And it’s also less likely because the economics of, like, creating good competitors are much, like, much more decentralizable.
Alex Atallah [00:16:25]: Everything Alex said is true, And I came at it from a completely different perspective, which
Swyx [00:16:31]: Yes, this is why we’re here.
Alex Atallah [00:16:32]: The scaling laws were never - In my mind, were always a feature, not a bug for why OpenRouter would be very valuable. Because, I was one of the first investors in Anthropic, and it was obvious to me that other researchers in our friends - I went to grad school for machine learning, and I just had a lot of friends in the ML community who it was very obvious to us that the bitter lesson holds. And so I was like, “Oh, fantastic. Now we have at least two proof points that compute scaling works.” It was OpenAI and Anthropic. and by the time I think we decided to team up on OpenRouter, I had already invested in Mistral and Black Forest Labs and Luma. So there was multiple model companies and teams that I was, working with.
Why Model Labs Struggle With Distribution
Swyx [00:17:14]: But you did other modalities, whereas this is literally
Alex Atallah [00:17:16]: Across different modalities, yes
Swyx [00:17:17]: Text.
Alex Atallah [00:17:18]: Exactly. And it was so obvious to me that an ecosystem of different kinds of models were being created, and that this whole narrative of, like, Only one company will dominate like Google was, well, like maybe true, but one, I don’t believe that. But two, there was so much extraordinary innovation happening across several different research teams. But the shared problem I was noticing across all of them was often, the research teams were fantastic at figuring out how to reason about new capabilities. They think in terms of capabilities, but never - like, are not developer mindset-oriented. Like, what happens after the training is done and the checkpoint comes out? Like, you’d be shocked how, like, similar the early training teams at OpenAI, sorry, Anthropic, BFL, Mistral, were in their, like, default approach to. Taking their research out of the, lab and scaling their impact, which is often, oh, the checkpoint is done, put it out as an API, done, and then there’d be crickets. in the case of Claude, the first Claude checkpoint was done a year before they released it internally. And then ChatGPT came out, and we decided, okay, yes, it’s a good idea to release a Claude version externally.
Alex Atallah [00:18:34]: And they had no plan, like no plan for how to get developers to try it out. And so if you go to the Claude one blog post, you’ll notice there are, like, three developer examples for users of the API, and one is a Discord bot, and the second is Vivian, my wife’s startup called Juny Learning, ‘- And then there was, like, Notion, because these were all friends of, like, the Anthropic Because that’s how - like, last minute the planning was around, hey, once the model’s done training, how do you get it out to the world? There was no distribution platform that understood what developers needed, all the key management, provisioning, like, simple, like, endpoint management, versioning control. Like, all these things that the scientists and researchers go, “ that’s plumbing. I don’t really think about it.”
Swyx [00:19:15]: Implementation detail.
Alex Atallah [00:19:16]: Right. And instead, Alex came at it from that perspective. And so, it was so obvious to me that, like, every single lab I was funding would spend - like, literally sometimes billions of dollars into training, and then a checkpoint would be done, and there’d be crickets, like, during early access because they’re like, “Oh, that’s right.”
Alex Atallah [00:19:35]: It’s hard to use a checkpoint to make anything. You need a whole bunch of plumbing around it to make it usable by a developer. And so by the - I think - it was so obvious to me that a distribution platform like OpenRouter was critical to have in the ecosystem if we wanted there to be competition to Google. Like, unless-- ‘cause with Google, DeepMind is done training a new checkpoint, and then they push a button, and it gets blasted out across all their surfaces from Google Docs to,
Swyx [00:20:01]: Everywhere, even if I don’t want it.
Alex Atallah [00:20:02]: Everywhere. You wanna know about, like, on Android, like, overnight, they can deploy a new checkpoint to, like, a billion devices, right? And that invisible infra advantage, distribution advantage, most people don’t realize, but until OpenRouter showed up, - you had to think about all of that yourself as a model lab. And it was very daunting. at Anthropic, I think it took, well, more than twelve months to get to our first 10 million in revenue. And in contrast with Black Forest Labs, I remember the early days, you guys had a conversation with the BFL team, and, it was so simple for OpenRouter to say, “Oh, no problem. Like, the day you launch, we can send 1 million developers to you.” that was crazy. That was like a step function change in, like, an hour.
Swyx [00:20:46]: Is that a real number, a million?
Alex Atallah [00:20:47]: I,
Swyx [00:20:48]: Okay. All right.
Alex Atallah [00:20:48]: I think today it’s, like, 4 million. How many developers are on OpenRouter today?
Anjney Midha [00:20:52]: Over ten,
Alex Atallah [00:20:54]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:20:54]: Over 10 million, but, like, it’s, it’s hard to, you
Alex Atallah [00:20:59]: I, yeah, I don’t know how to. Yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:21:00]: We do a lot of, like, account duping work, but, no
Alex Atallah [00:21:04]: If you could get 1,000 developers, just to put in context If you get 1,000 developers who try the model on day one after you release it and just, like, do inference and give you feedback, that’s a thousand
Anjney Midha [00:21:15]: That’s huge
Alex Atallah [00:21:16]: More developers than they knew how to get to on their own.
Swyx [00:21:19]: Well, BFL had a reputation, but yes.
Alex Atallah [00:21:21]: They had one in Stable Diffusion.
Swyx [00:21:22]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:21:23]: And with Mistral, I don’t know if you guys remember, but the first checkpoint they released was, like, torrents. It was, like, torrent weights.
Swyx [00:21:31]: Yeah, they just put up a magnet link.
Alex Atallah [00:21:33]: Yeah, there was no API.
Anjney Midha [00:21:34]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:21:34]: Because they didn’- they weren’t infra people.
Alex Atallah [00:21:37]: ? Like, it’s like, okay, download these weights, and you guys go figure out how to host it.
Swyx [00:21:39]: Well, he has a story on his side, yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:21:41]: Yeah, in addition to the, like, building a really good developer experience around it, the marketing that we do on, like, for different models is totally different and perceived totally differently
Alex Atallah [00:21:54]: Right
Anjney Midha [00:21:54]: From the marketing that a model lab does for itself.
Alex Atallah [00:21:56]: Yes, 1,000%.
Anjney Midha [00:21:57]: Right? We are like a, neutral layer looking at this market like it’s a big dark room with all the corners completely obscure to users, and users are walking into the room and, like, feeling around
Alex Atallah [00:22:09]: Yeah
Anjney Midha [00:22:09]: And trying to figure out what objects to grab off the tables and, like, build into, their companies. And it’s just an insane way of working. Like, models are not products where you can just enumerate all their features onto a web page. They’re all black boxes, including the open weight ones. So you need to, like, shine lights on all corners of this room, so that people can see what makes this model good, and you need the company shining that light to be a neutral third party, which is what we specialize in. So the, like. It’- In addition to developer experience, there’s also, like, a very important, like, marketing and product packaging component
Alex Atallah [00:22:50]: Yeah
Anjney Midha [00:22:50]: And a way of, like, routing and discovering models becomes, like, critical to your market as a provider or a model lab or a server tool and more in the future.
“Just a Wrapper”: Why VCs Misunderstood OpenRouter
Alex Atallah [00:23:03]: And this value, to your earlier point about how many VCs, like, just don’t. One of my biggest frustrations is that venture capitalists, many of them, like, just don’t have any operating experience in the field. so unlike a traditional investor who’s just maybe come up through the ranks as, like, a associate working on financial modeling or maybe hasn’t been a real operator in the field for, like, more than ten years, which is a big part of the industry now, I had just arrived at a16z, like, a year after running the platform. And so I knew what the challenges were of, like, building a real - great developer experience and like, being able to create a working piece of software with a model. And there were a few, I won’t name names, but there were investors who were looking at OpenRouter, and, felt at the time, like, when I would compare notes with people, that it was just, I quote unquote, “just a marketplace.”
Swyx [00:23:59]: Yeah, just a thin layer, just a
Alex Atallah [00:24:00]: Correct
Swyx [00:24:00]: Just
Alex Atallah [00:24:01]: A wrapper or whatever on other people’s APIs. And I was like, “You have no idea how strategic the value that OpenRouter has created by being able to orchestrate even three.” APIs in production. The amount of both engineering work and community design that goes into getting that live and running in production at the scale the OpenRouter team had started just doesn’t happen by default. And that was one of the things that stood out to me about Alex from the earliest days. Like, he just understood, like, - from a systems perspective, like, how do you get these flywheels going? Like, that stood out to me with OpenSea when we were working together on the NFT integration at Discord. Like, Alex had a level of community-- like, systems thinking on how you get these flywheels going that most scientists and machine learning people just don’t
Alex Atallah [00:24:48]: Think of. Like, we often think in terms of training.
Swyx [00:24:52]: It’s a linear stage.
Alex Atallah [00:24:53]: It’s this linear pipeline.
Swyx [00:24:53]: There’s no loop yet.
Alex Atallah [00:24:54]: Yeah. It wasn’t until much later that the modern context feedback loop cycle really got standardized in the industry. But at the time, if you remember, machine learning was like. Like, mostly we did a lot of ML, like, when I was in grad school on a laptop. So you just, like, download a dataset, ran some ablations, and you looked at the loss curves, and you’re like, “Great, I made AI.” And the idea that you have to, like, deploy those capabilities, collect feedback trajectories, then, like, put those into a continuous loop, like, came much later. And it was very counterintuitive to the - like, the traditional AI mindset. I do remember doing the investment phase for, OpenRouter, I just didn’t try and educate a bunch of other VCs on why it was not just a marketplace. I was like, “ what? I’m just gonna invest.”
Anjney Midha [00:25:41]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:25:41]: And I’m going to, like, take the opportunity to partner with Alex, and if - no other VCs get it, that’s totally fine. ‘Cause at the time, - it was not obvious, I think, to several of the investors that, like, OpenRouter was not more than just a wrapper around APIs. And - that infuriated me. And I was like, “ what? I don’t have time to debate you. I’m - we’re gonna, we’re gonna invest.” And then I think, like, a month later, Matt Murphy marked it up by 10x. Like, - I think. I forget what the exact money was and so on, but, to his credit, Menlo Ventures realized, “Okay, there’s much more strategic value here as well.” Maybe you didn’t hear all these conversations behind the scenes But that frustrated me a lot. there’s a lot of this, like, opining about wrappers. and if you’re like, “Oh, an app is just a wrapper on a model,” then, like. And, OpenRouter is, like, this wrapper on top of other APIs, and this is the most stupid, reductive framework.
Alex Atallah [00:26:31]: And so it’s clearly somebody who has no experience deploying product at scale.
Swyx [00:26:34]: It’s the thing you dismiss other things with. Like, you’re a - everyone’s a wrapper on everything, right? Like, and there’s, there’s some Some wrappers have value.
Alex Atallah [00:26:40]: Investors are wrappers and LPs, right?
Alex Atallah [00:26:42]: Like venture capitalists. So, yeah, it’s all wrappers down, all down to bare metal, I guess, and like energy.
Swyx [00:26:46]: Yeah, there - When I started the whole AI engineer, I guess, the coining, in 2023, like, that was, like, the number one pushback is that this is no value. You should just train models.
Anjney Midha [00:26:56]: Right.
Swyx [00:26:57]: And, yeah, obviously this is, like. you guys are one of the testaments to the fact that you can build very valuable wrappers, but also very valuable model companies.
Alex Atallah [00:27:06]: It’s so, hard to be. Like, the day a model launches, the fact that you have an OpenRouter, endpoint for that model frequently at the top of Hacker News on day one, people don’t realize the amount of work that goes into accomplishing that. And OpenRouter used. Like, that would happen over and over again, and I remember going, “People have no idea how hard that is.”
Alex Atallah [00:27:30]: That’s not.
Swyx [00:27:31]: Yeah, we’ve covered some of the inference engineering that goes behind,
Alex Atallah [00:27:34]: Yes
Swyx [00:27:34]: Some of - with Base Ten and all those. Well, today you have, all those, like, cool code name things that people guess what Oxy Alpha is and all those things. But, like, I guess one of the things that you’re teasing is, how do you get that initial flywheel going, right? Because today you have your scale and your reputation, all these things, so obviously you - you’re driving immense distribution. But when you were early on, when it’s mostly
Bootstrapping OpenRouter Through Community
Alex Atallah [00:27:55]: The bootstrap, yeah.
Swyx [00:27:56]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:27:56]: What was the bootstrap like?
Anjney Midha [00:27:58]: To bring it back to early Discord days, I think we, like, initially connected with. This is an OpenSea story, technically. But, and we initially connected when you were at Discord, and we talked about, like, - the Axie Infinity server.
Alex Atallah [00:28:13]: Oh, yes. Yes.
Anjney Midha [00:28:14]: This server was, like, the biggest server at the
Alex Atallah [00:28:17]: Yeah
Anjney Midha [00:28:17]: At Discord.
Alex Atallah [00:28:18]: That’s right.
Anjney Midha [00:28:19]: And you were like, constantly bumping up the
Alex Atallah [00:28:22]: The limits on the server. Oh, my God
Anjney Midha [00:28:24]: Of how many people could be in the server.
Swyx [00:28:24]: For those who don’t know, like, 10% of Philippines was Axie.
Alex Atallah [00:28:29]: Was on that server. That’s a big hit.
Swyx [00:28:31]: It was, like, a meaningful contributor to the GDP of the country.
Alex Atallah [00:28:33]: It was an NFT, like, crypto game, but it
Swyx [00:28:35]: It was like a Pokémon breeding thing.
Anjney Midha [00:28:36]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:28:36]: Yeah. Similar. Yeah. There was battling, there was breeding, and then there was, like, a marketplace for trading.
Swyx [00:28:43]: Earn as well.
Alex Atallah [00:28:45]: Yeah, earn. And, like, the graphics were really cute and fun, and you like, you get emotional about your Axie that you make. So to, like, start a community like that, which we had to do many times at OpenSea with every early project, for us to create a marketplace for it, we need to make sure that the, like, the community wants it.
Anjney Midha [00:29:09]: Right.
Alex Atallah [00:29:09]: And it’s like building something that people want and going and telling them about it. Like, you can do that on a one basis, but there’s way higher leverage to do that in a community where everyone can talk to you at the same time. So we spent a lot of time, like, building things that the community really wanted. We did the same thing for OpenRouter. And, like, the Axie community was one of, like, a zillion communities we did that with. And Anj, like, saw us doing it and. ‘Cause you could just see people sharing OpenSea links constantly in that Discord. Like, users sharing links is a really clear indicator that, like, something important is going on. So we spent, a lot of time, like, first figuring out what the gap is in the technology that people care about. Like, what was the actual problem that needs to be solved? in early LLM days, it was, OpenAI refusing to finish the prompt or,
Anjney Midha [00:30:09]: Yeah
Alex Atallah [00:30:10]: To, like, complete the task. It was also.
Anjney Midha [00:30:13]: Inability to customize models. and so there are communities that, like are just completely blocked on that issue, and those are the communities that are most useful to learn about and dive into and explore.
Alex Atallah [00:30:28]: Something that really struck me at that time, - as I was just hearing your talk, I remember noting - you may not remember this, but we - we had these, like working, Zoom calls that we were doing a sprint around for, like this OpenSea integration with Discord. and, we’d, we’d - it was myself, my engineering team. I think you were there. And I remember, Alex, in the middle of one of those calls, just like there was like silence. we were all like, “Oh, yeah, this totally makes sense. Let’s do this.” And then there’s - every, like everybody aligned. And Alex was like, “No, this makes no sense to me.” And everyone’s - I remember going, “What? Like, it works. Like, you click on a link and this, then it bounces you out to, like, OpenSea.” And he was like, “It’s not a good user experience. Yeah, we should not do this.” And I remember going, he was the only one person out of all of us to raise his hand and go, yes, it made sense from a technical implementation perspective. Like, we were bouncing the user out into the, into OpenSea. And so it kinda checked the box of the product manager’s requirements on both sides. But Alex went one step further and was like, “ what would be better, guys? If we just embedded the experience right here inside of Discord so the link opened up as an embedded iframe, and you can just check out right there.”
Alex Atallah [00:31:47]: And not one person on the call, and there’s like seven of us who had met, like, week after week.
Swyx [00:31:52]: And it’s the guy who doesn’t work for Discord.
Alex Atallah [00:31:53]: And it’s the guy who doesn’t work for Discord.
Swyx [00:31:55]: Like, technically, you benefit if they bounce.
Alex Atallah [00:31:57]: Exactly. And that was, like, adversarial. To keep the user inside of Discord would be adversarial to OpenSea. And yet Alex put that user experience first. And I was like, “That’s special.”
Swyx [00:32:08]: Wow.
Alex Atallah [00:32:08]: Because it’s very hard to have somebody who’s technical like Alex and understands the developer flow, but also understands the best user experience and wants to prioritize that. And that’s two sides of the flywheel that if you can get spinning, like is often hard to stop. And you just reminded me, like that one was one of those moments where I go, I - I realized I gotta be better at user experience because I should have been the one who came up with that, and I didn’t. And I learned from you. And, I think that went into one of our case studies for the PM training program at Discord.
Swyx [00:32:34]: Whoa.
Alex Atallah [00:32:36]: I don’t know if it there is Because of
Swyx [00:32:38]: You need an Alex is the conclusion.
Alex Atallah [00:32:40]: Yeah. You need an Alex. And this is why I’m not, nobody should be surprised why Stripe decided like they had to buy OpenRouter because it’s a really rare combination of people who understand the machine learning community, the developer experience, and the user experience. And putting all that together has resulted in this extraordinary scale that very few other marketplaces have been able to achieve
Window AI, BYOM, and Finding the Right Form Factor
Swyx [00:33:02]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:33:02]: Over the last, five years.
Swyx [00:33:04]: Yeah. Well, we should talk about the other reasons for acquisitions, which
Alex Atallah [00:33:07]: Yes, we should.
Swyx [00:33:07]: You’ve written about. I wanna proceed somewhat chronologically as well. So - there is a point that, one of the questions that, Dave from H of Zero sent in was, when did it - really started to work? And you brought up Mixtral. I don’t know if you wanna bring up that story.
Alex Atallah [00:33:22]: Oh, yeah.
Swyx [00:33:23]: Which obviously you overlap with, so.
Anjney Midha [00:33:26]: Yeah, the MoE was. I don’t know when. there’s no like one moment where I was like, “Oh, this is, officially starting to work.” It was
Swyx [00:33:36]: The moment where you had a Chrome extension, like, really super early on.
Anjney Midha [00:33:39]: Oh, yeah. But, well, - yeah. So before OpenRouter, I wanted to, like, explore a bring-your-own-model experiment. And,
Swyx [00:33:47]: Which anyone familiar with crypto is like, yeah, Phantom and all these things.
Anjney Midha [00:33:50]: Yeah. So it felt like doing a MetaMask analogy for AI would be a fun way of exploring that. And at the time, there were no AI apps. There were probably as many AI apps that were, like, hitting AI - like, hitting an LLM via an API call as there were, like, games just doing it in JavaScript. like there was a, there was a moment in time where it could have been the case that web apps call LLMs through the browser, like through some desktop
Alex Atallah [00:34:27]: Yes.
Anjney Midha [00:34:27]: Managed app that is controlled by the user. and of course, there are like, I think, many reasons that did not happen. But back when the days were that primordial, I built a Chrome extension called Window AI
Swyx [00:34:43]: With Plasmo.
Anjney Midha [00:34:44]: With Plasmo.
Swyx [00:34:45]: I had come across early on, and I was like, “Who’s gonna use this?” You did.
Anjney Midha [00:34:49]: Plasmo had a couple, like, I think Phantom was using it. there were some other, like real companies using it.
Alex Atallah [00:34:56]: It was like a shim.
Swyx [00:34:57]: React for Chrome extension. It compiles to all
Anjney Midha [00:35:00]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:35:00]: I see.
Anjney Midha [00:35:00]: Like Next.js for Chrome extensions.
Swyx [00:35:01]: Next.js, Next.js.
Alex Atallah [00:35:02]: Okay.
Anjney Midha [00:35:03]: And yeah, built Window AI on top of it. The creator of Plasmo, like started contributing code to Window AI, in GitHub, and that turned out to be Louis Vicchi
Alex Atallah [00:35:15]: Oh, you’
Anjney Midha [00:35:15]: Who is the founder of OpenRouter.
Alex Atallah [00:35:17]: That’s right. You have told me this is how you met Louis. Yes.
Anjney Midha [00:35:19]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:35:19]: Okay.
Anjney Midha [00:35:20]: So, that allowed users to like configure which model they wanted to use for a web page in their browser, and then, like the app would just call out to that model when it needed to do things. not the right form factor for LLMs, but, it’s like fun experiment. You learn a lot, and like I open sourced it. And the main learning is like, okay, this has to be an API, and it has to look a little bit - like, there has to be more of a developer experience here and more of a discovery experience as well. Like, I don’t know where to use these models, and a little Chrome extension is not gonna help me discover. It’s not enough real estate. I need more space. I need visuals. I need graphs. I need, examples. I need images. I need to, like, I need to be able to, like explore both as a human and as an agent.
Crypto, Midjourney, and the Early Generative AI Ecosystem
Alex Atallah [00:36:10]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:36:10]: So that’s how OpenRouter came to be.
Alex Atallah [00:36:13]: A meta point that.
Alex Atallah [00:36:16]: I think is underappreciated, but Alex is reminding me, is that we were quite lucky that we were so. we were, like, adjacent to the crypto community in those days. Because in hindsight, crypto ended up being like a dress rehearsal for generative models, right? If you think about the Axie experience, Alex is totally right, there were not that many AI apps at the time. And while I was dealing-- my job was to be the head of platform at Discord, which meant to be a general purpose place for communities and friends to create-- for developers to create apps and bots and, other services that could be deployed across Discord. And while 80% of the attention at the time was being spent on crypto, because that’s where all the NFT volume was, there was, like, twenty percent of my time I was spending with a friend, who would get hotbot with me and ask me for. We would play Magic: The Gathering on weekends, and he was working on a little Discord bot that could take a text input and turn it into an image, and it was called Midjourney. You
Swyx [00:37:15]: Is that David?
Alex Atallah [00:37:15]: It was David Holz.
Alex Atallah [00:37:16]: He was a good friend. And David and I have both been failed ARVR founders, in the before that. And, I remember this. Midjourney was one of the fastest-growing communities we had after Axie Infinity started to peter off. And many of the, like, the abstractions and the infrastructure decisions we made to scale Axie happened just in time because they. Axie did this and then fell off a cliff. And then as Midjourney was taking off, we, like, explicitly decided to help David make the server, the Midjourney server, as the primary place for interaction with the model, because it was very hard for people to understand how to use the model if they couldn’t see other people using it and copy them. And so the single-player Midjourney web app on its own, like midjourney.com, had, like, terrible retention because people would show up, they’d see this empty field. It’s like E 2, and they would type in, like, cat or dog. And it was, like, paralyzing for them to have this blank canvas that they had to fill because they’d never used an AI model before. But instead, in a Discord server, you could see other people using it and riff off of their prompt, and the engagement was off the charts. And so scaling, Midjourney from zero to, like, 10 million monthly actives was a much smoother approach Axie Infinity. And so,
Swyx [00:38:29]: Don’t forget the best of four pictures, and you choose one.
Alex Atallah [00:38:31]: The best, yeah, and then the other, we
Swyx [00:38:32]: Which is the feedback loop.
Alex Atallah [00:38:33]: The RLHF feedback loop, which, by the way, separately, like, Tom Brown, David and I used to play Magic: The Gathering on weekends. And so, like, it was one group of friends would hang out, and we’d. Like, these concepts were all being discussed all the time. But, there was.
Alex Atallah [00:38:47]: I think there were few of us who bridged both the crypto worlds and the AI worlds. And compared to crypto, where it was - the question was always, what’s the use case, for this technology? There was never any need to ask that for AI because it’s, like, the use case was so visceral. It was like, I can create now anything at - I can imagine. I can write novels, I can code. And the infrastructure that those of us who believed in the distributed systems, like, value of crypto, like the censorship resistance part, found this use case that was explosive. And I think between Midjourney, the, Claude was a Discord bot launch, that we were using internally as an LLM. ElevenLabs had a TTS model that we had on Discord as well. Like, Discord became this petri dish for, like, early apps to innovate. And I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they found a home there before OpenRouter gave the world, like, a public home store or, like, a, storefront. Discord was this, like, almost petri dish storefront that - had, like, piggybacked on the infra we’d built for crypto communities. And then I think Alex was one of the first people to realize, wait a minute, like, these apps need their own home, on the internet. And then OpenRouter, to me, was a continuation of that community’s needs. And of course, there was the crazy distribution that you enabled for a lot of these developers.
Why OpenRouter Couldn’t Just Live Inside Discord
Swyx [00:40:07]: So then my question is, how come you were. My perception is OpenRouter is not that Discord-centric, right? You have a Discord.
Anjney Midha [00:40:14]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:40:14]: And you use it to engage your community, but it’s not like Midjourney where, like, no, that is like the primary way people experience OpenRouter.
Anjney Midha [00:40:21]: Yeah, Midjourney, like, it really helps to see visually really quickly how people are using the model and how to prompt it.
Swyx [00:40:29]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:40:29]: And I think that is partly why the server was so critical. It’s like it is the user experience. It adds a ton.
Swyx [00:40:36]: Yes.
Anjney Midha [00:40:37]: And you can go the whole mile with just, like, prompting via Midjourney, like, the, via the Midjourney Discord server, getting your images and then sharing them and having fun. For OpenRouter, for LLMs, like, you need a lot of user experience around LLMs to make them, like, really usable.
Swyx [00:40:54]: Charge point.
Anjney Midha [00:40:55]: And yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:40:57]: The, like, seeing the examples of other people is also not as useful because it’s a lot of stuff to read. It takes a long time.
Swyx [00:41:03]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:41:04]: You need, like, based integration. Not possible to do in a Discord server. You need, Or technic- it’s possible. I shouldn’t say that. It’s just not a great developer experience. you need, like, - you need governance for. At the point where you got based integration, now you need governance for managing the LLMs that have access to it, the data policies, which teams. All that stuff needs a lot more than a Discord server can provide. So it’s just
Swyx [00:41:30]: Yeah
Anjney Midha [00:41:30]: It’s not the right.
Alex Atallah [00:41:32]: Well, in addition, you’re not wrong, but also there’s the very important distinction that, Midjourney was an end user application.
Swyx [00:41:40]: Right.
Alex Atallah [00:41:40]: And, that’s why Discord, which has 250 million monthly end consumers, made, it made sense for Discord to be a host for that application experience. What I knew was gonna happen soon after Midjourney found explosive product-market fit, because we. I think when Midjourney launched, from launch to $100 million revenue run rate, it was less than eight months. And shortly thereafter, Stable Diffusion launched. And, all of us used to hang out in the Discord server. There, I think it was the,
Swyx [00:42:13]: The Stability Discord?
Alex Atallah [00:42:14]: It was the
Swyx [00:42:16]: Yeah, LAION.
Alex Atallah [00:42:16]: Yeah, the LAION Discord server.
Swyx [00:42:17]: The image community that spawned Stable Diffusion.
Alex Atallah [00:42:19]: The image community. Yeah. And so when Stable Diffusion came out, I realized- Oh, now other people can build their own Midjourney.
Alex Atallah [00:42:27]: Because until then, Midjourney did not have an API, so they were a stack company, right? They were training their own models, and they were deploying them as an application. But if you wanted to build your own Midjourney, there was no API of that quality. and I think E two was still quite primitive. Like, Midjourney had great quality. And then when Stable Diffusion came out, suddenly there was this new person who - there was - this new capability in the world, which is a developer could create their own Midjourney. And that, I think, created the need for something like OpenRouter, because then you need an API to. If you - if you had the creativity of David Holz and you had Stable Diffusion as the model and you wanted to put these things together, how could you do that without having to figure out how to host the weights? And what OpenRouter, - the shape of OpenRouter enabled is that. Right? When you have open model alternatives to closed applications, OpenRouter’s value in the world becomes extraordinary because now any developer can just show up and use the
Stable Diffusion and the Need for a Model API Layer
Swyx [00:43:20]: You just love model diversity.
Anjney Midha [00:43:21]: Did you just say the shape of OpenRouter?
Alex Atallah [00:43:23]: Oh, no.
Anjney Midha [00:43:25]: Were you in cloud? What is this the real Han?
Alex Atallah [00:43:26]: I’ve been, I’ve been - I’m, I’m misaligned now. I’ve been overtrained. I’ve been using Cloud way too much, haven’t I?
Swyx [00:43:34]: Claude-ish is what people would say.
Alex Atallah [00:43:35]: Claude-ish. Oh, God, I gotta untrain myself.
Swyx [00:43:38]: Okay. - And I just wanna cap off the Mistral side. my TLDR is there was a Mistral price war, is what they called it, right? Like, round about NeurIPS is twenty-three or twenty-four.
Mistral and the Birth of the Inference Marketplace
Anjney Midha [00:43:47]: Yes. December
Swyx [00:43:48]: They launched, the Mistral 8x7B, and like the price went down like 80%.
Anjney Midha [00:43:54]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:43:54]: To me, that’s very positive because it’s like the first, like, real competition to host Mistral. Is there more?
Anjney Midha [00:44:01]: Yeah, that was. I’m, like, trying to remember it, all the things that happened. It. Like, we saw that model come out and immediately saw people say that it was the best model in the world.
Alex Atallah [00:44:15]: Yes.
Anjney Midha [00:44:15]: Like, this was, to my knowledge, the first time an open weights model was called that in real seriousness.
Swyx [00:44:22]: It’s hype, right? Is it?
Anjney Midha [00:44:25]: It was hype. It was hype. It was also, like, hype from AI influencers at the time. And there were many examples where it was, like, outperforming four. So people really wanted to try it out and see, is this gonna be true for me too? And if so, at what price? And, the, like, inference landscape was really messy.
Alex Atallah [00:44:49]: Yes.
Anjney Midha [00:44:50]: We cleaned it up. - it allowed, like, providers to compete on price, so we could give you just the best price in one spot. And so it was, I think, the first clear example of, like, a provider marketplace working in a way that adds value to end developers.
Alex Atallah [00:45:08]: Sean, you may not remember this, but I think we met for the first time a few days after Mistral came out at NeurIPS
Anjney Midha [00:45:15]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:45:15]: At a luncheon.
Swyx [00:45:16]: Yeah. That’s where I also met BFL as well. Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:45:18]: And Guillaume was there.
Swyx [00:45:19]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:45:19]: I was at NeurIPS at that time.
Alex Atallah [00:45:20]: You were there too. And, we had just announced the Mistral investment, and I remember Guillaume was over there, and I remember turning to Guillaume and asking him, Like, “Is it is all the. Like, how are you feeling after the launch of Mistral and seven B?” And, him in his typical French fashion was like, “ it’s a, it’s an okay model. It’s not that good.” And I was like. It was so, in contrast. But I remember him also saying that part of the reason he felt a lot of people Thought that it was better than four was because of the speed. - it was an MoE model that they had, like, absolutely figured out how to make super efficient. It was on the Pareto frontier. And this is an important thing about LLMs, right? Sometimes when they’re faster, you think they’re smarter, even though, like, if you did, N of, these common, like, evals that are - you do seven tries, and I don’t remember. I think we should go back and figure out what the data says, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns out, oh, on an N of seven attempts, four was smarter on evals, but the perception of on, like, or correctness would be smarter or more accurate. But, people, like, from a human preference perspective felt that it was faster because it - or smarter because it’s so fast.
Swyx [00:46:36]: Yeah. And most queries do not take that level
Alex Atallah [00:46:39]: Don’t take that. That’s true.
Swyx [00:46:40]: Right? So this is the start of humans as router
Alex Atallah [00:46:42]: Yes.
Swyx [00:46:42]: Which then eventually becomes OpenRouter as router of like the
Alex Atallah [00:46:45]: Oh, that’s interesting way to think about it. Yeah.
Swyx [00:46:47]: Like, because humans are the routing mechanism. Like, I will ask the fast model first, and then if, like, oh, not good enough, I’m gonna upgrade manually.
Alex Atallah [00:46:52]: Yes.
Swyx [00:46:53]: But then he’s gonna auto it.
Alex Atallah [00:46:54]: I didn’t, I hadn’t thought of it that way, but that makes sense.
Swyx [00:46:57]: Which then there’s, there’s a lot more techniques, like fusion. Fusion is the thing that we should talk about. Before I move on to those things, I just want to close off the early years. one thing that I observe, which you are also an investor in Arena.
OpenRouter vs. LM Arena
Alex Atallah [00:47:10]: Right.
Swyx [00:47:10]: And we talked about Midjourney having that feedback loop of, A, B, C, D, and choosing that very. being very important. And you understand the flywheel. So how come you didn’t build Arena, and how come Arena didn’t build OpenRouter?
Anjney Midha [00:47:23]: Well, Arena started before OpenRouter, right?
Swyx [00:47:27]: They had the school project
Anjney Midha [00:47:29]: Yeah, LM
Swyx [00:47:29]: And then it became a company.
Anjney Midha [00:47:31]: LM Arena, yeah.
Swyx [00:47:32]: So, but, and I know you had some Arena experiences, like the up comparison type things.
Anjney Midha [00:47:37]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:47:37]: But you never really went as hard as Arena did.
Swyx [00:47:40]: And,
Anjney Midha [00:47:40]: In doing up experiences?
Swyx [00:47:42]: Yes. And LM Arena did have a router project based on LM Arena ELOs, which they never commercialized.
Anjney Midha [00:47:48]: It’s hard to do a company that does both because one company is taking data and selling it, and the other company really can’t by default. So, I think there is, like, a branding reason that there are two companies here. like, when you set up OpenRouter, there’s no training, there are no prompts, right, aside from what your provider policy set. Like, OpenRou- like, OpenRouter can’t see your prompts or completions. If you want to see that as an org, you have to opt into it and enable it. And so we’re, like, pretty conservative and careful about data policy and security. And privacy. And LM Arena is like, their business model is like oriented around the labs and,
Swyx [00:48:34]: Because they give it for free, right? You don’t give it for free to give it for free.
Anjney Midha [00:48:37]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:48:38]: But we do give some. We like have free endpoints too, but like those free endpoints, we, I think we’re not collecting any prompts. We’re not like monetizing the data unless you, opt into it for some reason.
Alex Atallah [00:48:48]: This comparison. you’re not the first person to ask me this, and Alex knows this, but I was the interim, like the founder, like first CEO of Arena for the first five months when, and we were helping Anastasios and Waylin spin out of Berkeley. And, I did invest in that before, OpenRouter, but it was very strange to me the comparisons that outside, folks would make between the two projects because the missions were completely different. The founding entity for Arena, we called it the AI Reliability Institute because it was there as an eval service. Like the data, so to speak, that they were originally, offering the labs was how do you make the evaluation of models more reliable than like the state of the art at the time, which was like really just finger in the wind.
Alex Atallah [00:49:38]: That’s what Anastasios and Waylin’s PhD work was as scientists at Berkeley, was on statistical methodologies for correcting, eval estimates, based on like intrinsic biases and how you collected the data.
Swyx [00:49:54]: Yes.
Alex Atallah [00:49:54]: And
Swyx [00:49:54]: Style control.
Alex Atallah [00:49:55]: Style control and stuff like that. And which is very much like a, hey, how. If you’re a scientist and you’re trying to. the highest expectation customer for Arena was always like a training and, like a researcher at a lab. Whereas the highest expectation customer from my perspective that Alex like really understood and was the mission was to serve was like a developer, right? Who then takes the result of the research and then produces an application that’s deployed to the world. It was a completely different problem and person that these two teams were focused on. And so from the outside in. I don’t know if you remember this, but I have a distinct memory of a few weeks before we did the term sheet, together for OpenRouter, I’d given you a call because we were trying to get a pooled data set together from OpenRouter and from Arena to, create like an open source repository of prompts. these projects were so different in their goals that it was totally normal to me to be like, “Oh, yeah, let’s call Alex and see if he’d want to team up on pooling data,” because they’re so different. We need. We don’t have that data at all. We. Like, we didn’t have API prompts. We didn’t, we didn’t have like what developers want to do with the models, which is very different from what researchers inside a model lab want to do before releasing the model.
Swyx [00:51:15]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:51:15]: Does that make sense? And so to this day, I think you see that this difference, even though at a 30,000-foot level you could. I guess you could conclude that Arena and OpenRouter are adjacent, but, the roadmaps, the missions and so on at the time at least were like in very different directions.
Swyx [00:51:36]: That ideal customer, I get. I totally get that.
Alex Atallah [00:51:39]: Yes.
Swyx [00:51:39]: As a founder, I want to own everything, right?
Alex Atallah [00:51:41]: That’s possible.
Swyx [00:51:42]: Like this is clearly an adjacency that I’m like gonna explore that.
Anjney Midha [00:51:45]: Own everything meaning like you don’t know what to do yet, so you wanna like make sure you catch PM
Focus, Anthropic, and Roads Not Taken
Alex Atallah [00:51:51]: No, I think what he
Anjney Midha [00:51:52]: As quickly as possible.
Alex Atallah [00:51:53]: You want to own the entire infrastructure space, and so you expand to whatever demand you can capture.
Swyx [00:51:58]: You want to have a play in each end.
Alex Atallah [00:51:59]: Yeah, I think that’s, that’s hard, in reality, because serving multiple customers is difficult.
Swyx [00:52:05]: Clearly, this is the one focus, right?
Alex Atallah [00:52:08]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:52:08]: Yeah. I still think even in the age of AI, like focus is,
Alex Atallah [00:52:12]: Is critical
Anjney Midha [00:52:13]: Underrated and critical, not just because you end up with a better product by focusing your humans on it, but also because the world knows what your focus is.
Alex Atallah [00:52:22]: One thousand percent.
Anjney Midha [00:52:23]: The world can map like, “Oh, I have this issue. Which brand out there is going to help me with that issue? This is the brand that’s known for that focus.”
Alex Atallah [00:52:31]: Yes.
Anjney Midha [00:52:32]: So like if I want real attention on this issue, like this really matters to me, I should go with the brand that cares the most about it.
Alex Atallah [00:52:39]: To underscore Alex’s point about how important focus is, in the early days of Anthropic, it was not easy to. Like people think that the early days of Anthropic were like super easy because they were on their 3 guys who left, but it was very competitive. The company was starting 10 billion dollars behind OpenAI, right? And so to get to the frontier, like the big question was, what do we want to be known for? What’s the mission? And the mission was AGI pair programming. And so to the, exclusion of all kinds of other things that were really shiny at the time, like image models and video models that were getting lots of, momentum, the Anthropic team was like, “We just got to focus on coding.” Like that is the core capability that we’re focused. And today you can see the results, right? It’s a trillion-dollar company within five years. And that focus, I think, like the high. The focus on who your highest expectation customer is and how you exceed their expectations, because exceeding anyone’s expectations is hard, and doing it for multiple like customers is so even more difficult, is part of the reason why OpenRouter succeeded and Anthropic as well.
Anjney Midha [00:53:39]: Was the focus on coding that early, though, or did it come later?
Alex Atallah [00:53:42]: Literally from day one it was AI pair programming is. Responsibly commercialize an AI pair programmer was the seed memo. That was when I invested, right? We like refined that memo a lot. Well, you got to ask Dario and Tom for permission on that.
Alex Atallah [00:53:57]: But it’s an extraordinary piece of writing that they had put together. And AI, commercializing it. Responsibly commercializing an AI pair program was the mission, from day one. And I would say there were maybe like a couple moments in the company’s history where like they did experiments to see if like little detours made sense, like a general chatbot, like Claude.ai when ChatGPT was really taking off. But, at the end of the day, but especially once, they got their like significant training compute online, I think like the. All the main evals at the company, for example, have always Coding evals, long horizon agentic programming. from day one, that was always the plan.
Anjney Midha [00:54:34]: Because when, like, Claude Instant came out and Claude 2 came
Alex Atallah [00:54:38]: Yes
Anjney Midha [00:54:39]: I remember the marketing mostly being focused on pros. Like, this
Alex Atallah [00:54:43]: Yeah
Anjney Midha [00:54:43]: Could write better
Swyx [00:54:44]: Yeah Long context. It was the first of its kind.
Anjney Midha [00:54:47]: Long context,
Swyx [00:54:49]: This directly affected me ‘cause I built something on that. Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:54:51]: What did you make?
Swyx [00:54:52]: A small developer, which was my Devin before Devin.
Alex Atallah [00:54:54]: Oh, yeah. Yes.
Anjney Midha [00:54:55]: Yes.
Alex Atallah [00:54:55]: Small.
Swyx [00:54:56]: Yes. and, so I think, like, there’s, there’s all that really, like, good, like, focus is another thing - That is a question that people do wanna ask. you could have built any other things. Like, and obviously OpenRouter was working. were there other ideas that you wanted to pursue that you turned down? just the paths, roads not taken.
Anjney Midha [00:55:16]: We made a couple prototypes for things that we didn’t launch. One was a tuning model as a service.
Swyx [00:55:23]: Yeah. Lots of that with OpenPipe and, all those things.
Anjney Midha [00:55:25]: But it - It was in a very consumery form factor, where you would give us a YouTube video or two or three. We would then extract all the transcripts from it and try to tune a model to talk like the person in the YouTube
Alex Atallah [00:55:40]: Yeah
Anjney Midha [00:55:40]: Or the people in the videos that you sent. So, like, a really easy way of creating a tuned model based on, like, some videos that you like.
Alex Atallah [00:55:48]: That would be so useful.
Anjney Midha [00:55:50]: We,
Alex Atallah [00:55:51]: No
Anjney Midha [00:55:51]: We made it too. It was
Alex Atallah [00:55:53]: You don’t think so?
Anjney Midha [00:55:54]: It was, it
Alex Atallah [00:55:55]: And nobody used it?
Anjney Midha [00:55:55]: It - We didn’t like, test it with that many people because the model marketplace was our main focus, and it was, like, growing, and we were building more conviction in it over time.
Swyx [00:56:09]: Just, you
Alex Atallah [00:56:10]: Yeah. Why,
Swyx [00:56:10]: As a creator
Alex Atallah [00:56:11]: Yes. I’m a creator.
Swyx [00:56:11]: Have you been pitched many, like, - I have five hundred hours of recorded voice of myself.
Alex Atallah [00:56:17]: Right.
Swyx [00:56:17]: Make a thing of you, charge access to it. it works for OnlyFans, doesn’t work for
Alex Atallah [00:56:23]: I see
Swyx [00:56:23]: As regular people. I think - this is mostly, - It’s just a glorified RAG bot.
Alex Atallah [00:56:28]: Right.
Swyx [00:56:29]: Whether it’s in the weights or it’s outside the weights, doesn’t really matter. You’re just doing RAG on the videos, and people ultimately always just wanna find the source video, that directly answers it.
Alex Atallah [00:56:36]: Oh. my use case was mostly to practice - - with myself ‘cause I often like to see what. Like, the way I practice for a job interview or if I’m hiring a candidate or public speaking or whatever is I wish there was, like, a good
Swyx [00:56:48]: Yeah
Alex Atallah [00:56:48]: That I could, like, critique ‘cause it’s kinda hard to pull yourself out. I would never get. I would never offer it to other people as a service.
Swyx [00:56:54]: I wish there were, like, pick your top five mentors that, then talk to them instead of talking to yourself.
Alex Atallah [00:56:57]: That’d be cool too, yeah.
Anjney Midha [00:56:58]: That was, that’
Swyx [00:56:59]: That’s the creator AI. That’s a replica.
Anjney Midha [00:57:01]: And that was the use case we were aiming at.
Alex Atallah [00:57:02]: I see.
Anjney Midha [00:57:03]: Is like, you wanna create an experience
Swyx [00:57:06]: Like AI Steve Jobs and.
Anjney Midha [00:57:07]: And AI Steve Jobs was the initial use case.
Alex Atallah [00:57:11]: That’s a,
Anjney Midha [00:57:12]: Even though it’s not allowed.
Alex Atallah [00:57:14]: That’s a, that’s a common prototype, yeah.
Swyx [00:57:15]: Talking about adjacencies, tuning as a service, as part of the router service is something that I would typically think about as well, right? Like, why don’t you do that? ‘Cause if people are running already their inference through you, store everything, log everything, tune to a smaller model that is cheaper, faster, all these things that’s within your control, right? you didn’t do that, but, like, other people would have pitched that in the general state of a infra startup.
Anjney Midha [00:57:37]: Yeah. Yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:57:37]: I think you were just maybe a little bit early ‘cause today that’s an extraordinarily growing segment. Like, from Mistral, where they do a lot of enterprise deployments
Fine-Tuning as a Service and Infrastructure Adjacencies
Anjney Midha [00:57:44]: Right
Alex Atallah [00:57:44]: And stuff and tuning as, custom models for ASML or whatever. And often
Swyx [00:57:48]: But not as a router. They’re, they’re just like, “I come to you because I like your Mistral models. I want custom Mistral model,” right? It is not, “I want, to run all my OpenAI prompts, - store all my results, and then just move off of OpenAI.” Right? They’re not doing that.
Alex Atallah [00:58:01]: As a, as like a way to export off of dependency on a Frontier lab, I have not seen that yet. Yeah.
Swyx [00:58:08]: Right.
Alex Atallah [00:58:08]: Which was your vision.
Swyx [00:58:09]: Is efficient to do.
Anjney Midha [00:58:10]: We decided. Really, we, like, leaned into our focus and figured that, like, there aren’t. Like, we just saw the ecosystem develop over time. All these inference providers that do wanna help companies do that, - Like, it makes sense for us to partner with them and to, like, give users lots of choice and to, like, figure out what makes them, what gives them competitive advantages. It’s, it’s a whole new business and there’s, there’s value in being a neutral marketplace that just like, works with those companies.
Alex Atallah [00:58:45]: Could you share a little bit, to Sean’s point, like, how you prioritized. What are some ways you prioritize features? ‘Cause you’ve always done it so elegantly that I never. it just happens, and you make all the right decisions that always have product-market fit from the outside looking in. But consistently, you seem to have prioritized, a lot of hit features that worked. And maybe I have a sample set bias or whatever, but Sean’s question
Swyx [00:59:06]: Can you list what you think hit features worked?
Alex Atallah [00:59:09]: Oh, the leaderboards.
Swyx [00:59:10]: Leaderboard, okay.
Alex Atallah [00:59:10]: Yeah. like, from day
Swyx [00:59:13]: That’s charting, right? That’s the feedback loop.
Alex Atallah [00:59:14]: Charting, BYOK.
Swyx [00:59:15]: But, like, he had, like, ins. he had, like, And I think there was a whole thing I wanna get into about, like, completions versus
How OpenRouter Prioritizes Product
Alex Atallah [00:59:22]: Yes.
Swyx [00:59:23]: Check completions versus completions. And then also, let’s call it, like, the rise of the reasoning models and how you deal with those, multimodality, all those things, right?
Alex Atallah [00:59:31]: Yeah. BYOK.
Swyx [00:59:32]: BYOK, yeah.
Alex Atallah [00:59:32]: That was a huge one.
Anjney Midha [00:59:34]: There’s one I. Like, I think it was in early 2024, very early 2024, we thought it might be interesting to fuse the results of multiple models together, and we launched a prototype called MOM, Mixture of Models, that let you, like, pick a couple models, or we’d pick them for you, and then it would fuse the results together at the end, and it would show you all the intermediate results in this, like, big Kanban looking product.
Mixture of Models and Model Fusion
Swyx [01:00:05]: What does the fusion at the end, another model?
Anjney Midha [01:00:07]: Another model. The,
Swyx [01:00:08]: The smartest of
Anjney Midha [01:00:09]: The smartest
Swyx [01:00:10]: Of the set
Anjney Midha [01:00:10]: Of the three, of the set.
Swyx [01:00:12]: Okay. So this is like a council idea?
Anjney Midha [01:00:13]: Yeah. It was a model. It was like a very early LLM council.
Alex Atallah [01:00:16]: This is a agent swarm as, like, they would call it at one of the Frontier Labs, in the early days?
Anjney Midha [01:00:23]: Yeah, like some of those ideas are, like, going the right direction, but the devil’s in the details.
Swyx [01:00:27]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [01:00:27]: There’s a lot of, like, product refinement needed to make them really work. they take your focus away
Swyx [01:00:34]: Right
Anjney Midha [01:00:34]: Whatever else you have going on. And there’s a lot of, like, community building and learning that you need to do. And the technology might be too early. So there are - like, all kinds of reasons they might go wrong. And in our case, the technology was a little too early. In other words, the fused result was a little bit
Swyx [01:00:53]: Right. Like a Frankenstein
Anjney Midha [01:00:54]: Sometimes the same as the best model that was being used to fuse because the best model was so far ahead of options two and three at the time. over time, the top three or four LLMs have gotten closer together, still neurodivergent, but, like, all capable of inserting, like, pretty interesting ideas. Like, RL has like, expanded the surface area of creativity for machine learning researchers within each lab, and so they can, diversify the reasoning power of different models more effectively. At least that’s my theory for
Swyx [01:01:29]: Yeah
Anjney Midha [01:01:30]: Fusion - it, like, works better than it used to, but early twenty-twenty-four. And, so the technology was a little bit too primitive. The form factor was not right, and so we would have had to go through a couple more iterations. And so we decided to just delete all the code. And, then years later, middle of twenty-twenty-six, or early twenty-twenty-six, we’re like, “Let’s bring it back.” Like, the research is looking kinda promising for fusion. The models now have, like, two, three, four top frontier models that are all really good and, like, I’m, I’m frequently trying to, like, consult multiple models to get the best results. Like, and then I ran a little personal experiment where I was like, “I’m gonna, like, do a, an architecture plan for a code change. I’m gonna give it to all the models. I’m gonna fuse the result, and then I’m gonna ask all the models if the fused result is better than the individual result each model came up with.” And they all said yes, that the fused result was better. And this happened a couple times, and I was like, “Okay, spot check, pretty good. We should, like, benchmark this.” And that’s how we built fusion.
Revisiting Fusion as Frontier Models Converge
Swyx [01:02:40]: Yeah. And it came on your Fable, so you were like, “This is Fable level.”
Anjney Midha [01:02:43]: Yeah.
Swyx [01:02:44]: Let’s start leading up to this year, which we haven’t gone to this year. can you mark out the main milestones in the journey? I think, it seems like your promise, was, routing. You decided the business model very early.
Swyx [01:02:59]: You take a cut. And, like, what are the major milestones that, inflect the growth, right? Like, you’re, you’re growing, like, 9% week on week now? Is this the official number?
Anjney Midha [01:03:10]: In terms of token volume, I think that sounds about right, yeah.
Swyx [01:03:13]: Yeah. So just, like, can you mark out, like, the brief history of OpenRouter up to, the acquisition? Let’s, let’s call we’re, we’re just, we’re just, talking about, people are, - you have a your birth moment with, the Mistral stuff where people are really competing. You have your state of AI thing where,
Anjney Midha [01:03:32]: Yeah.
Swyx [01:03:32]: It’s very cute. You have a hundred trillion tokens, ha, ‘cause now you’re doing ten a week, .
Anjney Midha [01:03:39]: Yeah. We’re doing ten a day.
OpenRouter’s Growth Inflections
Swyx [01:03:41]: Ten a day now?
Anjney Midha [01:03:42]: Yeah. More.
Swyx [01:03:43]: So yeah, you do this in ten days.
Swyx [01:03:45]: Like, what are the major end points there? I just wanna. Like, there’s a smooth curve, but, like, you feel the inflections.
Anjney Midha [01:03:51]: A lot of this is oriented around model launches. we had, a huge focus on pros all the way up through May of twenty-twenty-four, because coding was just not there, and no apps were able to build much on top of it. So, a diversity in models, but not a wide diversity and not a wide diversity in use cases. Dream Tavern was one of our top apps at the time. The creator of Dream Tavern now runs product at Cognition, Devon. - Then - In the middle of twenty-twenty-four, we saw Claude 3.5 Sonnet. That came out, incredible leap forward in coding, and we saw the dynamics of, like, apps building on top of us change. we saw a huge surge in volume in, like, users, using OpenRouter. And this is when I think people started to look at the, like, money that they were spending and get a little bit like, “Whoa, what’s going on? I might need to, like, think about, like, more efficient but equivalent models.” And shortly after that, I think it was after Sonnet three five, Mixtral 8x7B came out, and everyone was like, “What? This is the model.” Like, the OpenWeights community delivered. And so it was really good timing from Mistral.
Swyx [01:05:17]: All of Anja’s portcos are just helping you out.
Alex Atallah [01:05:21]: It takes an ecosystem to grow an OpenRouter?
Anjney Midha [01:05:24]: Yeah, that was the. Yeah, it was. It like, it was the, like, this early ecosystem, it was like a swing action where, like, model labs would come up with some frontier innovation. Like, usage would surge. Then users, look at their invoices 30 days later and like, “Whoa, what’s going on here?” And then OpenWeight models would deliver, like, a, like, effective options two, three months later. We saw that happen several times.
Swyx [01:05:54]: By the way, one
Anjney Midha [01:05:55]: Yeah
Swyx [01:05:55]: One thing you also did with the coding agents was that you broke out which are the top coding agents, and they love that. They love that leaderboard. The Klein versus the Rue code versus the what have you.
Anjney Midha [01:06:04]: Yeah. Like, Klein was, like, the top of our leaderboard at the time. We, We then, at the end of. And I’ll skip forward a little bit. The end of twenty-twenty-five, there were quite a few coding apps on the leaderboard, but they were all IDs or, terminal-Agents. And at the end of twenty-five, we saw OpenClaw appear. And OpenClaw was, like, particularly interesting because, one, it was like a new form factor that, like, brought in a new type of user, not just a developer, but like a productivity or a, like an internet creator came to AI for the first time. And it also had an interesting architecture where it was, like, calling your chosen model for these heartbeats to see if it was still alive in addition to using the model for real tasks. And the heartbeats are like, they’re kind
OpenClaw, Hermes, and the Auto Router
Swyx [01:07:02]: Fréquence.
Anjney Midha [01:07:02]: You don’t wanna pay a lot of
Swyx [01:07:03]: Every thirty minutes
Anjney Midha [01:07:04]: To do a heartbeat.
Swyx [01:07:05]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [01:07:05]: So, the auto router that we provided was really useful to this, like, wide range of users all of a sudden. And so we just saw it rocket exponentially, and then we saw, like OpenClaw just blow up and a couple other, apps lean into that new paradigm and do something similar. Hermes came out and really leaned into things like the auto router and built, like, a really good community and leaned into, like, skill management and making it really easy and effective for people to, like, set their memory in the agent
Swyx [01:07:44]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [01:07:44]: And build really good skills.
Swyx [01:07:45]: Which another thing you never did, memory skills, sandboxes, all these, like, adjacent things you could have done.
Anjney Midha [01:07:52]: Could have, but It’- I think,
Swyx [01:07:54]: It’s hard to bet.
Anjney Midha [01:07:55]: They’re also - There are things that developer-- that really matter for, like, the developer use cases that were coming out at the time. Like, developers wanted to architect those things.
Swyx [01:08:05]: Right.
Anjney Midha [01:08:05]: Those were kinda critical to building a good user experience. It’s really-- It was, like, - It’s been hard for companies to find abstractions that work for all developers on the memory layer. It is, it - Yeah, there are some, like Mastra has done a pretty good job, for example. But, like, developers have, like, lots of varied preferences for them. And then we - - the way our leaderboard has changed over time is like a movie of how the AI space has changed over time. If you just like, go to the Wayback Machine and look at the rankings leaderboard and the apps leaderboard over time, it shows you, like, what’s happened in AI over the last couple of years.
Swyx [01:08:48]: To me, the coming of age moment was, Andrej Karpathy was like, “I no longer read Local Llama ‘cause, like, I just go to OpenClaw-- OpenRouter’s leaderboard.”
Leaderboards as a Map of the AI Ecosystem
Swyx [01:08:57]: Which I remember that. Yeah. I think he probably, like, said, like, “Sorry, guys, I’m gonna send a bunch of traffic to you.”
Swyx [01:09:03]: So I also wanna bring it into the Stripe, thing.
Why Stripe Acquired OpenRouter
Swyx [01:09:07]: How does that conversation start?
Anjney Midha [01:09:09]: We had this longstanding relationship with Stripe, though, from, like, many different projects that we had worked on with them. We invest, a lot of effort in countering abuse,
Swyx [01:09:24]: Token fraud.
Anjney Midha [01:09:24]: And token fraud.
Swyx [01:09:26]: Can you give some numbers just - so people understand?
Anjney Midha [01:09:29]: I think I, like, I posted about this. We blocked 10x as much dollar volume last month as the month before. And the types of token fraud are diversifying quite a bit. there are, like, fraudsters going after typical stolen credit cards, but there are also, people trying to resell traffic against the terms of service. There’s, like, hacked accounts. There’s people who just lose - like, their whole company is compromised, and they don’t even realize it, and we help them, like, regain control and detect it. There’- There are accounts that are, like, reselling inference on the side. There’- There are accounts that are dealing with, a, like, an accidental runaway agent, and they don’t realize it. Not a hack, but it’s something that blows up and the company doesn’t want it. And so our trust and safety team, like, works a lot on all of these, like, categories of problems and helps block it and detect it. And so we’ve built these. we have models around them. We - We worked closely with Stripe for a while on this, and I think it’s gonna become a huge problem in the ecosystem. Like, we’re already seeing a lot of companies start to see these fraudsters, like, spread and look for other ways other than OpenRouter to other fraud vectors. And if you’re making a gateway or selling, like, generalized inference, you are a target for fraud. If you’re selling very discreet, like, intelligence products that are, like, doing something pretty specific, but not, like, just reselling inference with some added capability, then you’re way less likely to get these fraudsters. So - I think we’ll see companies also move away from just reselling inference with some like, added capability and move towards like, discreet tasks and charging for those tasks and charging for those enhancements and letting people bring their own inference, like, in a party way.
Fraud, Abuse, and the Emerging Token Economy
Swyx [01:11:39]: Whoa. Okay. and yeah, obviously you would power that.
Anjney Midha [01:11:44]: Right.
Swyx [01:11:44]: But you - People pay, for outcomes Or per task?
Anjney Midha [01:11:48]: I think people will pay. I think, like, the Datadog pricing page is a good look at, like, the future to come. It’s like companies, like infrastructure companies will, like, charge for different types of events that they’re providing, and there’ll be lots of, like, continuous pricing models that look like that. And of course, there will be, like, if you go down, towards consumer apps, simpler pricing, more subscriptions, fewer events to worry about, and ones that, like, are not. Focus on just adding a markup on top of inference.
The Token Economy and Security at Scale
Swyx [01:12:28]: Yeah.
Anjney Midha [01:12:28]: Not just because fraud is hard, but also because the pressure from the labs and from - like, good inference providers to, like, do a commit and then bring your inference elsewhere is gonna be very high.
Swyx [01:12:44]: Any comments?
Alex Atallah [01:12:45]: Two. One, I think Alex has done a very eloquent job of describing something, counterintuitively I knew would be a thing at scale, like four years ago because of Discord. And the particular experience that taught me this was, as we started scaling Midjourney, - one of the primary ways that we used to give away or, like, get people to try Midjourney early on to get to their first ten generations. Because, ten generations - ten images generated was roughly the magic moment activation point we found. Like, once you’d done ten, you were like, “This is extraordinary.” but for that week, so we had a free trial with Midjourney. And one day I woke up, because I was the head of platform and had to monitor, I had all these dashboards, and I had, like, three missed calls from David. And it turns out, like, there had been this flood of new users overnight. And we were like, “This is great.” And he was like, “No, we shut down the free trial.” And I was like, “Why is that?” and he said, “I want you to look at the geolocation IP addresses.” And somebody in China had started to resell Midjourney free, subscriptions with the free trial as a way to, like, you - It was fraud abuse, right?
Swyx [01:13:54]: Even for a specialized model like Midjourney.
Alex Atallah [01:13:56]: Yeah. And that was an application. So this idea - I think the big picture realization I had back then was, hey, there’s a new type of unit of value that’s being streamed across the internet called a token.
Alex Atallah [01:14:11]: And over the next ten years, the entire internet value chain was going to have to deal with the fact that, like, the more valuable tokens got, The more bad actors are gonna go to try to get their hands on those tokens. And anytime you scale something and the payload gets more and more valuable, More bad things, people try to get access to that value. And so it was very obvious to me back then. And so, look, to this day, I don’t think there’s a free turn. Like, I don’t think Midjourney’s ever turned on the free trial since then, because it was really not an easy problem to solve in terms of trust and safety. that’s why I - started teaching the class Security at Scale at Stanford. Like, it was like one of - that and the Anthropic learnings, to me, it was clear that the need for security at scale is gonna be enormous a few years from then. Because if you just do the math, right, think about, like, if we’re. online payments, has started roughly in the eighties and nineties, right, and grew to over a trillion dollars over the next ten years, and we needed to build entirely new payment solutions to deal with online fraud. where we are today is roughly there on tokens, but over the next even five years, we’re expecting the token economy to get to, like, roughly 5 trillion dollars. And over the next ten years, I’d be shocked if we weren’t at 10 trillion dollars of token flow. And so if we were starting to see such aggressive abuse and fraud at subscale, Midjourney, remember Midjourney at this point was, like, less than three $100 million revenue run rate a year.
Alex Atallah [01:15:44]: I just realized we were gonna need, like, entirely new, Like, systems to deal with the fraud that was gonna happen for trying to get into the token flow. And so, - I, - I forget the board meeting it was when you brought up that, Stripe wanted to partner up, and it made so much sense to me because Stripe Radar. When I was at Kleiner ten years ago, we invested in Stripe, and the whole pitch that, Patrick and John communicate so eloquently was like, “Hey, unlike traditional payment tools like Braintree that do a day verification, like KYC and AML to get the fraud out of the way, we just bite the fraud cost upfront as customer acquisition cost and - tell a developer, like, just use five lines of code, and we start accepting your payments in five minutes. And what’ll happen is over time, we collect all this data on the developers.”
Swyx [01:16:31]: Cloudflare model.
Alex Atallah [01:16:32]: Is the Cloudflare model, right? And they did. Five years later, they launched Stripe Radar, and Stripe really today is a security company. That’s the real. People think it’s a payments company. No, the reason. There’s lots of other payments providers today that give you, like, cheaper payments transmission. But the reason Stripe keeps, being the dominant one here and Adyen and Europe is because they have extraordinary fraud detection that they’ve built, - over the years.
Swyx [01:16:52]: It’s the same story with Elon and Max Levchin
Alex Atallah [01:16:55]: And affirm, yeah.
Swyx [01:16:56]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [01:16:57]: So, I think the story shows up over and over again, where every time you have value streamed across the world in large amounts, you need new protection and security infrastructure to fight, to keep the bad guys out and allow the good people to, like, have their transactions happen really fast. And so I think, - this is why - from my perspective, like, the Stripe and OpenRouter story is a security story for the internet ecosystem, for the frontier AI ecosystem. Without a partnership like that, it becomes very hard to defend the quality of experience and the speed and all the good stuff without letting the bad guys get in the way. the second is that, there’s this underappreciated thing about, like, the fact that you need to. Like, - all the bad things that Alex described as being perpetuated by humans right now is going to be perpetuated by AI agents over the next ten years.
Swyx [01:17:46]: Oof.
Alex Atallah [01:17:47]: Right? So think about the, like, recursive scale we’re about to see of bad actors. It’s not just bad human beings, it’s, it’s all the bad agents that are gonna be attacking the token flow. And there’s. It’s very hard if you’re a researcher and at an AI lab to reason about that problem because the only data you have is how agents you’re training are going rogue. But that’s just a fraction of all the bad behavior on the internet that we’re gonna see. And so what you need is defenders, new sheriffs in town, which cowboy hats, that can see all the bad behavior from AI agents across the ecosystem, from different model labs and different trained deployments and different developers, and take all of that data and say, “We’re gonna build a shield for the entire token economy.” Because without that, the amount of fraud we’re gonna see of this 10 trillion dollars in GMV and global GDP growth is, like, a huge percentage of that, I think, is going to be fraud, abuse. And we might never get there if people just don’t trust. Tokens, right? and I don’t think this infrastructure exists. So you have your work cut out for you with, at Stripe, but I don’t think people have realized the scale at which agents, agent, agentic fraud, like bad behavior perpetuated by AI agents is about to hit us like a tsunami.
OpenRouter + Stripe: What Changes Next
Swyx [01:18:58]: Yeah. there’s a lot to dig into there. I wanna give you the last word. We do have to wrap. what can people expect from OpenRouter and Stripe?
Anjney Midha [01:19:07]: I think this is a really good way for us to accelerate market and, to go upmarket more quickly. It’s also, as Ansh eloquently described, this is, there’s a really clear better together story here when it comes to improving trust and safety and making it really easy to, like, accept tokens and let people bring their own inference to your app and to help developers just, like, build on top of inference, going forward. We have a really strong brand with OpenRouter, and we’re keeping the brand. So, like, OpenRouter, like, as a product and the roadmap and the name and the brand, like, is staying the same. And so what, like, you should expect, in the next six months is that most things will be like what we would have done had we been independent, except everything will be moving faster. And that’s like our, term goal. Longer term, hopefully I can comment on it soon, but I can’
Closing: Building the Infrastructure for the Token Economy
Anjney Midha [01:20:11]: Now.
Swyx [01:20:11]: Okay. Well, we’ll hopefully do a follow-up at some point, but thank you for being so generous with your time, and, congrats on the partnership. this is one of the most beautiful bromances I’ve seen in AI.
Alex Atallah [01:20:22]: Just starting out.
Swyx [01:20:23]: Starting from Stanford
Alex Atallah [01:20:24]: Just starting.
Swyx [01:20:24]: To here.
Alex Atallah [01:20:24]: Yeah. Lots more to do.
Anjney Midha [01:20:26]: Yeah.
Alex Atallah [01:20:26]: Lots of sheriff, policing to do of the, of
Swyx [01:20:29]: Yes. The cowboys in town.
Alex Atallah [01:20:30]: Of the token economy. We need We need new sheriffs for sure.
Swyx [01:20:33]: Yeah. Awesome. Thank you.
Anjney Midha [01:20:35]: Thank you.


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Earlier this month, world model company Runway introduced GWM Worlds 2, a research preview that “turns high-fidelity video and audio generation into real-time interactive simulation.” Runway calls this an “autoregressive diffusion” model; with autoregressive describing how it generates over time.
One new feature in particular caught our eye: WorldPrompt, a proposed input format for specifying a generated world and the actions within it. It allows you to fix some aspects of a simulated environment — including the first frame — and then create a series of timestamped events. The events, or actions, can even be prompted in real-time.
To understand the implications of WorldPrompt, we spoke to Kamil Sindi, Runway’s CTO, and Robin Kahlow, its Principal Research Scientist for generative video and multimodal AI. We also have exclusive comments from Anastasis Germanidis, co-founder & co-CEO of Runway, courtesy of a podcast swyx and Vibhu did with him.
Who’s building real-time interactive world models?
First, some context about world models that can generate interactive video and audio in real-time.
Runway is reportedly valued at $5.3 billion, based on its most recent fund raise of $315 million in February. Its first release, GWM Worlds, was launched last December.
Alongside Runway, there are several other notable projects in this domain: Google DeepMind’s Genie 3 (which also generates at 720p and 24 fps), Odyssey-2 Pro, and World Labs’ RTFM (Real-Time Frame Model). We’ve summarized their differences in the following table:
Given the complexity and massive latency demands of real-time video and audio generation (which we’ll get into below), all of the projects listed above have limitations. For instance, Google notes that Genie 3 “can currently support a few minutes of continuous interaction, rather than extended hours.”
But as our interviews with Runway show, real progress is being made.
The central idea of WorldPrompt
WorldPrompt, a new feature in GWM Worlds 2, helps differentiate Runway from its competition. You can think of it as a control layer for characters, cameras and the environment. As Kahlow put it, it’s a way to “control all the different subjects in the world” — similar to a computer game.
“Like, if there’s an NPC [Non-Player Character] somewhere, the NPC might walk up to you and say something. So you could achieve the same thing with this kind of model, where you can have very detailed control over everything in the scene.”
As the name suggests, WorldPrompt is a prompting mechanism — not a programming language. So, unlike virtual world games like Minecraft or Roblox, GWM Worlds 2 doesn’t offer scripting capabilities or the ability to control state. But there’s a power to that, as Sindi pointed out.
“You can create promptable worlds on-demand with video and audio in sync, across all these different domains and environments. That’s not a distant-future hypothetical thing,” he said.
But there are also limitations to prompting a world model. We asked how reliably the model would follow an instruction to create, for example, a law of gravity or a certain ability in a character?
“Yeah, so it’s a research preview,” Kahlow replied. “So it’s not perfect, of course, and there are still flaws. It really depends on how difficult the action is. I would say movement works quite reliably.”
Sindi added that more training plus scaling the data and models is resulting in “better following.”
How a video model becomes a real-time runtime
Despite the current limitations of GWM Worlds 2 — especially if you compare it to pre-designed and scriptable worlds like Minecraft or Roblox — the true promise of world models like Runway is that they’ll eventually lead to fully self-generated, real-time games and experiences. Which is an extremely hard engineering problem, as Kahlow reminded us.
“There are two challenges. One is making the model not generate a whole clip at once. So instead, you want it to generate frame by frame while you’re looking at it. And the other challenge is actually making the generation fast, so you can play it in real time.”
GWM Worlds 2 offers real-time interactive worlds streamed in continuous 720p video at 24 frames per second (fps) and audio at 48,000 Hz.
Runway achieved this firstly by taking its foundational audio-video generation model and fine-tuning it to the new WorldPrompt format, so the model can follow that. It then post-trains the model to generate autoregressively.
“And after that, we work on making it real-time through distillation methods,” Kahlow added.
Co-CEO Anastasis Germanidis offered more technical details in our podcast with him. He told us that the process starts from “bidirectional diffusion that basically generates an entire video at once and [makes] it autoregressive.” This allows the model to “generate one frame or a few frames at a time.”
Germanidis described two possible forms of distillation in order to make it real-time: distilling a larger model into a smaller one or reducing its diffusion steps. As a general example, he said a model might go from around 50 denoising steps to four, with some quality loss but potentially comparable results.
The challenges of real-time generation
Germanidis admitted that there were issues with how it generates real-time interactive video.
“The biggest challenge with autoregressive models is error accumulation,” he said. “You’re feeding generated frames back into the model to generate the next frames, and if there are any small errors, they accumulate over time.”
Sindi told us there are also challenges dealing with “infinite generations” of content.
“There’s all these challenges around what context to keep, what to discard that’s not important. And so there’s all these optimizations we have to think about, so we’re not blowing up our GPU memory.”
Another current limitation is long-term memory. “The model does not have perfect memory,” Kahlow said. “That’s still an open research problem.”
Causality and correctness
While performance is the primary challenge for Runway at this time, its world model also has to produce plausible consequences when a user takes different actions.
Germanidis used the example of simulating football; he pointed out that online video training data contains more successful goals than failed goal attempts, so a video model might render the first more convincingly.
“If I take this action versus this action, you want it to generate equally realistic outcomes,” he told us. “That’s, I think, the big gap between video models and world models: that idea of counterfactual generation.”
Sindi told us that evaluation gets harder the more complex interactions get.
“If you have this multi-prompt, multi-character, multi-scene [environment], how do you really understand what was causal and what was not?”
To try and solve that, Runway has some automated verifiable tests. But since GWM Worlds 2 is a research preview, Kahlow noted that doing tests yourself is also advisable — “trying out your model to see what doesn’t work is really important.”
More than gaming — there are agent use cases too
Gaming is the obvious use case for what Runway is building, but there are others. Kahlow mentioned robotics — for example using a simulated environment to test how a robot works.
Another, more intriguing, use case is to use it to test agents at scale.
“Having thousands of simulated environments is much less challenging if you have a suitable model like GWM Worlds,” Kahlow said.
But how does an agent know what’s changed in the world — is there a structured state that it can read, or is it just the generated video and audio that it’s consuming and understanding?
“So there’s no structured state here,” Kahlow replied. “It’s just observing the same thing you might observe in real life, just [in this case] from cameras.”
Sindi noted that GWM Worlds can also be used for “synthetic data generation for agents.”
Finally, Germanidis suggested there’s potential to use these world models alongside reasoning models.
“You’re maybe using some reasoning [for] planning of the scene, and then you’re passing it into the diffusion head that’s actually generating the pixels.”
Anastasis Germanidis
* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/agermanidis/
* X: https://x.com/agermanidis
Timestamps
00:00:00 Introduction
00:05:17 Runway’s Origins and the Bet on Generative Video
00:12:23 The Stable Diffusion Story
00:18:44 Gen-2, Controllability, and the Weekend Hack
00:23:02 From Video Generation to World Models
00:28:03 Learning From the World, Not Just Language
00:35:04 Sora, Runway’s Existential Crisis, and Gen-3
00:39:39 Why Real-Time Video Is Inevitable
00:43:06 Interface World Models: Software Without Code
00:50:25 The Fully Neural Operating System
00:55:11 World Models for Robotics
01:02:32 Robot Policies and World Action Models
01:07:47 The Lucid Dream Test
01:11:41 Video Agents and Omni Models
01:23:12 Artists, AI, and Creative Workflows
01:27:14 Physical AI and the Future of World Models
Transcript
Introduction: Runway, Creative AI, and the Early Thesis
Swyx [00:00:00]: Okay, we’re here with, Anastassios from Runway, with, me and Vibhu in the studio. Welcome.
Anastasis [00:00:08]: Good to be here.
Swyx [00:00:09]: Congrats on all your success and progress with Runway. You’re opening offices all over the world. Did you envision this when you first started out?
Anastasis [00:00:16]: Not quite. I think even when we started, we had this idea that, It was more a matter of when, not if, we were seeing the early generative models of 2016, 2017, and just extrapolating, assuming, we resolution, quality increases predictably over time. There’s gonna be a point where most of content will be generated, and that was maybe the initial thesis of Runway was we will need, as a result of those generative models, rethink how creative tools are made. and as we built out the research behind, our generative models, it then became clear that they were useful far beyond that as well.
Anastasis’ Background: Art, Simulation, and Machine Learning
Swyx [00:00:57]: And it is more obvious now with, like, the real-world stuff and the world models that we’ll talk about later. I’m just kinda curious how you go from a background in, like, Zocdoc and, computer vision into Runway. Like, take us back to that early conversations with Chris and, whoever else is on your founding team.
Anastasis [00:01:14]: I was always splitting through those two worlds. One was the I had my own art practice. I was making a lot of interactive art, I think for a long time. and then on the other side, I was working in startups, and I was working as a ML engineer, as a backend engineer at different companies. I’ve always been interested in, coding and computation, and especially interested in simulation and brought it back into my early artwork as well. And at the same time, I was interested in
Swyx [00:01:43]: The personal site has a few, right?
Anastasis [00:01:44]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:01:45]: Is there one that we should pull up? Just in case there’s something that’s like. I just like to go down memory lane.
Anastasis [00:01:50]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:01:50]: Okay, what is this?
Anastasis [00:01:51]: So this was, a project that I made, I think back in 2015, where I built this software that would give, voice instructions to people in a gallery space. So it would coordinate interactions between people. And so it will first give you an identity, like you’re an, architect, you’re 30 years old, and, you like sports. and then it would match you with another person, and you have this completely generated interaction. language models were not quite there at the time, and so it was it was a mix of some templates and some, like, some Markov chain-generated text, and it would just completely simulate these small talk conversations between, everyone in the gallery space. so was always very fascinated on the one hand with, generative models and, like, the early machine learning work that was being at that time. But at the same time, there was this separate thread of simulation and what it means. Like, what can we learn about humans by creating those very simple models of their interactions and their behavior?
Early Generative Art: pix2pix, GANs, and Uncanny Valley
Vibhu [00:02:56]: Did you generate the prompts or, the 30-year-old, whatever? Was it you generating them? How’d you, how’d you
Anastasis [00:03:03]: Exactly. So the program would just generate- those, from. Yeah, a lot of it would be Mad Libs style of just
Vibhu [00:03:10]: Yes
Anastasis [00:03:10]: You have lists of different professions, lists of different,
Vibhu [00:03:14]: Hobbies
Anastasis [00:03:15]: Personality types, lists of different, ages, things like that. And then it would just combine those things together. And then maybe the next project we go is, Uncanny Valley, Uncanny Road, which was
Swyx [00:03:27]: Gans
Anastasis [00:03:27]: One of the first projects that, we built with, one of my two co-founders, Chris. This was taking, pix2pixHD, which was one of the early image-to-image models that NVIDIA released back in 2016 or 2017. and it was a model that would take a semantic map of a scene and then generate a photorealistic, let’s call it, output. very early days, so it was not very high-fidelity outputs, but it w I think was the first image-generation model that could generate at 1K resolution. And it was all trained on self-driving datasets. So the semantic categories it would support were only, things you would encounter on the road. So it would be pedestrians, traffic signs,
Vibhu [00:04:16]: Stoplights
Anastasis [00:04:17]: Bikes, stoplights. And so that was one of our first indications that we built this and people were making all this, like, very surreal imagery of, yeah, a million plus a million pedestrians or a million traffic signs or, like, gigantic humans. And it was a indication that you could take a model that was trained on this very boring dataset, essentially, of, like, not that many interesting things happen when you’re on the road, and then you can repurpose it and go very out of distribution and make something that was artistically compelling. And that was It’s a summary of the thesis of Runway in some ways, that you can take the same generative models, and if you look at them from another direction, if you build interesting tools around them and you give them to artists, they’re gonna do things that you don’t expect.
Vibhu [00:05:02]: Very cool. I like the, UX of it. You’re just given an empty canvas, try whatever, do whatever. And then the other one, like, you see everyone with wired headphones? Like, that’s, that’s a sign that it’s, it’s very
Anastasis [00:05:16]: The Apple
Vibhu [00:05:17]: Yeah
Anastasis [00:05:17]: Apple, your version.
Vibhu [00:05:17]: Original ads. Yeah. Take us to today. You’ve been doing this for seven years at Runway. How have we got to this? Like, how do we go from driving simulator data to all this? And you cover the whole stack of generative media?
From Creative Tools to a Research Lab
Anastasis [00:05:33]: Interestingly, we’re almost back in, we’re, we’re full circle. We’re, we’re now applying our models and beyond creative tools into real-world scenarios. But it was a, it was a long journey. It was very early on we realized the first version of Runway was a way to easily use the, all the open source model of the day, things like pix2pix to. and give them to artists. That was the initial idea, is those models are too difficult to use if you’re not a machine learning engineer. Like, what happens when you give them to artists? Very quickly, we realized we needed to build a research org, inside of Runway, and that happened maybe on year one. And, a lot of the mandate there was. The image-generation models of the time, the video generation models of the time, or there were barely any video generations all the time, but they were not quite there where they could be productionized and brought into tools that would be part of creative workflows. so we need to push the frontier of the research. And so maybe the first four years of Runway, research was almost happening on the background until there was a moment in 2022, with latent diffusion, with, DALL-E 2, where, there was that step function change, and you guys maybe remember around the time.
Swyx [00:06:49]: I started in this space because of latent diffusion and Stable Diffusion.
Anastasis [00:06:54]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:06:54]: Because I was like, “Wow, this is not only, like, feasible, it is doable on consumer hardware.”
Anastasis [00:07:01]: Exactly, yeah.
Vibhu [00:07:01]: I think the delta is also huge. Like, I learned pix2pix. Like, this was intro to ML, the TensorFlow, like, Jupyter, Google Colab notebooks were like this, and then you have a sudden step function change, with diffusion and whatnot. Any other ones since that. Like, there were clear examples of what early diffusion were to get to here. Any other changes in key technology research?
Green Screen, Rotoscoping, and Early Runway
Anastasis [00:07:26]: Between, 2018 when we started and 2022?
Vibhu [00:07:29]: Yeah.
Anastasis [00:07:29]: So one of the early work that we did in Runway was solving segmentation, image and video segmentation. It was a very important problem because most VFX involves essentially separating
Swyx [00:07:42]: Rotoscope
Anastasis [00:07:42]: Subjects. Yeah, rotoscoping. Extremely manual process. Nobody enjoys doing that. and so a lot of the early days of Runway was building this tool. It was called Green Screen, and it was for a long time the main thing that people were using Runway for. It ended up being used in, Everything Everywhere All at Once and a bunch of other high-visibility films and series. But that was essentially, Runway for a long time was a post-production tool until latent diffusion and generat- Gen-1, Gen-2, happened.
Swyx [00:08:12]: Cool. let’s, let’s go past that moment. You’ve come a long way. Then you started releasing your own models. Maybe describe that journey as well.
Scaling Video Models and the Bet on 1,000 A100s
Anastasis [00:08:20]: Yeah, so we go to the other point, yeah, in mid-2022 when it became clear that we’re doing research at a fairly small scale of compute, and it became clear that, like, scaling laws would apply to, image and video gen in the same way that we’re applying to language generation. So we made a big bet, and I think at so at the time, we signed this deal to build a cluster of a thousand A100s, which at the time we were a Series B startup. That was a almost, slightly irrational decision maybe, but we really believed that if we trained a video model at a large scale, we would get, like, a great model at the end. And at the time, the goal or we set the goal around fall of 2022 of what is, what does the latent diffusion, Stable Diffusion moment look like for video? And at the time, the best model of the time was called CogVideo. it was one of the early video models. It was very 256 by 256 resolution, very not very high quality. and so we decided we’re gonna build out this cluster, and we’re gonna just invest in, like, in building out our own video model. it became clear as we’re training Gen-1 that it was difficult to get to fully. we wanted to build text-to-video, but it became clear to us that an easier starting point would be to start from video to video. Because when you have a stronger conditioning, it’s, it’s an easier problem to restylize an existing video versus generate the video from scratch. And so we released Gen-1 first back in, it was January of, 2023. Yeah.
Vibhu [00:10:04]: It’s just a fun visual podcast, honestly. Like, if we can see February 2023, what was the state of stuff?
Gen-1: Video-to-Video and Depth Conditioning
Anastasis [00:10:10]: It’s so interesting ‘cause at the time when you see those results, you think this is so incredible, and this is like, it’s almost like image generation or video generation is solved. And then you look back a few years after, and it’s like, it’s It’s just like you get used to the results very quickly, with those models. But at the time when we started seeing those results, it was, it felt quite incredible, and the level of, like, quality that you could get. And, so the Gen-1 was a depth-conditioned video model, so it would turn. it would take a input video, it would predict. it would it would first convert it into the depth map, and then we would generate, pixels with a latent diffusion model.
Swyx [00:11:01]: Yeah, very effective.
Vibhu [00:11:02]: Yeah. I didn’t realize how distracting the blog post would be. Sorry.
Anastasis [00:11:05]: Yeah, but, one of my favorite examples of on those, on Gen-1 was both, if you go up to mode three or mode two, there was this storyboard use case where people would make
Vibhu [00:11:18]: Ooh
Anastasis [00:11:18]: Would
Vibhu [00:11:20]: You can mess around with the
Anastasis [00:11:20]: Make a city out of books or out of boxes, and then they would shoot a video with their phone and then translate it into a photo-photorealistic output. There was all these ways in which those models were starting to be used for storyboarding and also for really. and then if you go to mode four, like, of taking untextured 3D scenes and then turning them into photorealistic output. So we saw a lot of use cases early on where people that were familiar, were power VFX editors would just take a blender, render, and then they would get translated in with Gen-1 or create a scene in Unity and then take a capture a video of it and then translate into, restylize it. So I still think video to video is powerful. I think we had a recent video-to-video model as well, and it’s one of my favorite ways of using those models is essentially using them to use ground truth video as, like, the initial inspiration and then translate into different styles or different outputs.
Stable Diffusion, Stability AI, and Open Source
Swyx [00:12:23]: But I think we’re gonna go into, like, the rest of Runway and catch people up to speed today. I did wanna cover the, let’s call it the Stable Diffusion controversy, or, what happened with Stability AI, whatever. I think there was a two sides of the story. I think there’s part of that is a normal thing of, like, people, join and leave companies, but what is the, retrospective now that, there’s been some years behind it?
Anastasis [00:12:49]: Yeah, it’s a very, it’s a very long story to go into. I think it would
Swyx [00:12:53]: Which I remember you wrote a really long post about.
Anastasis [00:12:56]: We would probably cover the whole hour to go into it in more detail. But, essentially, there was the latent diffusion paper that came in, I think that was at the end of, 2021. And then Patrick Esser, who was one of the researchers behind, latent diffusion, and he worked at Runway at the time, he built latent diffusion in collaboration with Robin Rumbach and a few other folks back, in the in, CompVis, which was, a lab
Swyx [00:13:26]: Like a research group, yeah.
Anastasis [00:13:27]: And, after releasing the early latent diffusion model, they, essentially they were. the goal was to keep working on versions of the model, scale it up, incorporate new data, incorporate new tasks. And Stable Diffusion was the same model, but trained on more compute, and then with a few more tricks, like a classifier-free guidance paper came at some point, I think in the early 2022. And that
Swyx [00:13:52]: Which, like, was a big prompting improvement.
Anastasis [00:13:55]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:13:55]:?
Anastasis [00:13:56]: That improved results. it was trained on better data, so like, the esthetic subset of LAION, but it was effectively, the same underlying architecture. And there was that big training run, that, happened on Stability’s cluster. Stability financed that run. And looking back at that story, I think it was the work to build and train that model was done. It was a, it was a research project. It was done as part of, like, continuation of the latent diffusion work. It then, I think it the model became very successful, and it, I think there were the. And I think as a result of its success, other companies tried to, figure out the commercialization path for it. But for us, it was very important that we try to, we make sure that we. It was meant to be an open source research project, and so the we decided that we should continue releasing versions of it, since that was the original goal of Stable Diffusion, and that led to releasing Stable Diffusion 1.5. There was maybe a day of, a bit of, miscommunication there, but ultimately that was resolved very quickly within hours. so yeah, there was
Swyx [00:15:12]: Okay
Anastasis [00:15:12]: Not a nice
Swyx [00:15:13]: I just wanted to. you have to
Anastasis [00:15:15]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:15:15]: You’re one of the main players in that journey, and so it’s nice to hear from the source of, like, what happened. Yeah.
Anastasis [00:15:22]: Yeah. I think it’s all, it’s all in the past now
Swyx [00:15:26]: Yeah
Anastasis [00:15:26]: I would say. and, like, both companies, Stability took its own path, Runway took its own path.
Swyx [00:15:32]: Yeah. There’s still. James Cameron is backing the new Stability, whatever they’re doing with the Hollywood studios.
Anastasis [00:15:38]: Right.
Swyx [00:15:38]: I don’t know what they are doing. I think one thing that impresses me, and I’m happy to move on, is that back in the that time, let’s say, like 2021, 2022, there was this community of people that you were involved in that was researching all this stuff, right? And, like, from everyone I talked to who was active then, it seemed like it was fairly obvious that somebody would do the hero training run that would produce Stable Diffusion. So, like, I guess the question is, like, you had the you were you had made investments. You were you had the foresight. Is it accurate to say, like, that is reflective of, like, what people were thinking at the time? Or was it still very much like, “Well, we’ll use it as, like, a post-production tool or something. I don’t know.”? Like, where in the sentiment were we that maybe you can think back to, like, what the community was like back then?
The Early Creative AI Community
Anastasis [00:16:28]: I reminisce and I think very fondly those early years, from like 2018 to 2022, because it was a very small community that, as you said, were very convinced that this was gonna be a big thing. And at the time, anyone who. Because it was such a small circle and, everyone who would, like, be part of that circle and, like, make projects with it would, immediately get, go viral. so like
Swyx [00:16:55]: And you didn’t know who they are, right? They’re just some name on a, GitHub or Hugging Face somewhere.
Anastasis [00:16:59]: Exactly, yeah. So I remember one of the first big viral moments of creative AI was, there was the neural style transfer paper
Swyx [00:17:09]: Huh
Anastasis [00:17:09]: That
Swyx [00:17:10]: Something dreaming?
Anastasis [00:17:11]: I think it was called neural style transfer.
Swyx [00:17:14]: Okay.
Anastasis [00:17:14]: There was also Deep Dream, the puppy slice
Swyx [00:17:16]: Yes
Anastasis [00:17:16]: Which was, also really cool. but, yeah, there was this project that, Jim Kogan, who was an early advisor of Runway and one of those,
Swyx [00:17:25]: Marketing guys
Anastasis [00:17:26]: Big, creative AI, folks, he literally just, like, showed a video of himself taking the New York Subway and going over the Williamsburg Bridge and then stylized it with, I think in the style of Van Gogh or, like, one, painter. And that was. Like, at the time, that was, like, so cool and it went viral and it was completely revelation to people that you could do this with generative models. And that was only, it was less than. It was maybe 10 years ago. So just, like, as an indication of, like, how quickly things have gone.
Vibhu [00:18:02]: It’s pretty crazy. Like, even since then, you’ve got people at every level of the stack. You’ve got devs, creatives, artists, hobbyists. You’ve got everyone using it. And for people that tried stuff early, they’ll remember how hard it was to use regular diffusion, right? Like, nowadays, you can use your favorite ChatGPT image gen or whatever, give a sentence, get a beautiful output. But diffusion was like, the whole ultra HD, 4K, high resolution. Like, prompting these things was very different. anything you learned on the tooling side, like from the offerings you guys have now, so like creatives, devs, you really took the. Research and brought it to everyone to use. anything interesting there to share?
From Gen-2 to Controllable Video Generation
Anastasis [00:18:44]: We had to build the entire model serving infrastructure for video diffusion models. There was nothing else, already, like, because we had Gen-2 was the first text-to-video model, I think, out in the market. So many things that we learn over time. I think the I think the biggest one was, like, we. it was very clear early on that text-to-video was not gonna be the answer. Like, you. Like, people wanted a lot more control than that, and so we invested in, like, control building on top of those models very quickly. how do you use the camera trajectory as control? How do you use an initial input frame as control? So that was a very early learning for us. With text-to-video was, like Gen-2 was an amazing, step function improvement in the quality of video models, but it was used much more in an exploratory way because there was nothing to ground it to. There was no reference that you could bring into it. There was no. You couldn’t really control the camera motion. You couldn’t control the object motion. And so the first year, in 2023, was really all about what are all the interesting ways in which we can condition those models? And it was a lot of just post-training rounds on top of the base model to figure out, like, what, -- how do people wanna control them? And so there was, like, this quick succession of the we it was called Motion Brush, which was you could, like, you could draw arrows and dictate where things should move in the scene.
Vibhu [00:20:09]: That’s so cool.
Anastasis [00:20:09]: There was camera control that was you could just describe, like, how you want the camera to move in the scene. And because we work with filmmakers from the most of the history of Runway, we immediately got this feedback and got this, decided that this was worth investing in. And so control ability became a big theme, I think, very early on as we were building, as we were building those models. Something fun that I haven’t really talked about too much was just how Gen-2 came to be out of Gen-1. So it was a bit strange because we announced Gen-2 two months after Gen-1 and
How Gen-2 Came From a Weekend Hack
Vibhu [00:20:43]: We’re accelerating.
Anastasis [00:20:44]: It was before Gen-1 was even generally available. But Gen-1 was a depth-to-video model, so it would take a depth map and it would convert it into RGB. and we couldn’t get, text or image-to-video to work directly, and that’s why we started from depth to video. but, and we had discussions of like, okay, we need to spend the next six months investing in text-to-video, maybe increasing the compute scale or the model scale, like train a larger model. And I had this weekend project idea, which was, what if I take a model that, starts from text input and converts to depth maps and then use Gen-1 to convert the depth maps Into RGB?
Vibhu [00:21:29]: It would probably work.
Anastasis [00:21:30]: And so Gen-2 was that.
Vibhu [00:21:32]: Oh. The hackathon pipeline.
Swyx [00:21:35]: The weekend hackathon pipeline.
Anastasis [00:21:36]: Yeah.
Vibhu [00:21:37]: But it looks good.
Anastasis [00:21:38]: And it worked pretty well. there were if you, with the knowledge that it has this, like, two-stage pipeline, you can tell in some cases that the structure of the video looks a bit off because you had to generate the depth first before you go into the output video. But it worked and it allowed us to bring this to our, to users very quickly. But it’s now it’s interesting because, like, people are coming back to this almost two-stage approach. Like, if you look at the Reve text-to-image model that came a few months ago, it had this planner model that would generate bounding boxes before it fed that into the diffusion transformer.
Swyx [00:22:19]: Yeah, Ideogram also the same day.
Anastasis [00:22:22]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:22:22]: I remember that was very strange that both of them came out the same day with the same exact innovation.
Anastasis [00:22:26]: It’s a small community, I think.
Swyx [00:22:28]: I’m like, this is like, this is completely coincidental, right?
Anastasis [00:22:32]: People talk. So yeah, there’s, there’s definitely something into this approach. And, now, like every single like, video generation model in production uses a complex prompt completion pipeline under the hood. I think that’s no secret that there is. That
Swyx [00:22:48]: Humans are terrible at prompting.
Prompt Rewriting, Camera Control, and the Seed of World Models
Vibhu [00:22:51]: I think across the board.
Anastasis [00:22:51]: Yes.
Vibhu [00:22:52]: But yeah, I think like the original Sora one blog post even told you that what happens after your input is rewriting your prompt. It’s much more descriptive about what you would want.
Anastasis [00:23:02]: Exactly. I, And there was the DALL-E 3 paper beforehand that, was the first public, description of the fact that synthetic captions and really detailed captions work really well. And then Sora built on that. Yeah, so it was 2023. We were releasing all these updates to Gen-2, like the camera control, Motion Brush. And there was something very interesting about camera control because it was the first time that you felt that instead of, like, you were creating video, you were creating a short video, you were navigating inside the world. And I think camera control was maybe the seed of some of the ideas that we had around world models and really opening up that research direction. We realized, it was this era and this series of, Gen-1 and Gen-2 models really proved to ourselves, yeah, this is the
Swyx [00:23:56]: Cool.
Anastasis [00:23:57]: So this is not the original camera control. This was the updated camera control on top of Gen-3. But yeah, I think it made those models usable to filmmakers, I would say. The so camera control was very popular. And so we realized, there is one way of seeing those models, which is, you’re just as content creation machines, and there is the other way, which is you’re. As you’re predicting video in order to predict video well, you need to simulate the world in an increasing and increasing capacity. And if scaling laws apply on video, just like they apply on language models, then as we scale the compute that we put into those models, then they’re gonna be able to simulate physics, they’re gonna be able to simulate human actions and dynamics increasingly well and predictably well. That was the thesis about around our efforts on world models, and we spin up this research group to just focus on the world models and how do we turn the video generation models that we’re building into something broader and something that would be useful beyond, also content creation as well.
Swyx [00:25:04]: And that was roughly when?
Anastasis [00:25:06]: Yeah, so that was in
Swyx [00:25:06]: Oh
Anastasis [00:25:07]: In late 2023.
Vibhu [00:25:08]: Interesting. like, I think, a lot of people have been saying a lot of video gen model companies have all pivoted to world models these days, but like, 2023, you’re posting it. one
World Models: From Video Generation to Simulation
Swyx [00:25:21]: It’s, it’s debatable whether it’s a pivot.
Vibhu [00:25:23]: Yeah.
Swyx [00:25:23]: Like, arguably
Vibhu [00:25:24]: Yeah
Swyx [00:25:24]: That’s what you always had to do anyway, right?
Anastasis [00:25:26]: It’s in a way an expansion
Vibhu [00:25:28]: Yeah
Anastasis [00:25:28]: Of the applications
Vibhu [00:25:29]: Yeah
Anastasis [00:25:29]: Of the models as they become more capable.
Vibhu [00:25:31]: The early signs, it seems like the original models you guy had, guys had, people would say it’s very not bitter lesson pilled, right? You’re adding, rewriting prompts, you’re having all these one-off things, but that’s just the state of the tech as it was versus the future of as you said, you can scale it up as, we can scale up to world models.
Anastasis [00:25:50]: Yeah. So it just became. And if you looked at the outputs of Gen-2
Vibhu [00:25:56]: Yeah
Anastasis [00:25:56]: It was not. I think it was not obvious to people that this would scale to become a general simulator of the world. Like, you had very limited movement, you had, very low fidelity or low resolution, like obvious mistakes in human anatomy, like all kinds of limitations. But it was just, the idea was that’s just GPT-two, and GPT-two, it can barely generate, like, coherent sentences. Similar, Gen-2 can barely create coherent video, but if you scale it up, you’re gonna. There is no reason why it shouldn’t work in a way. It’s, And I think that was. That’s, that’s always the mindset of Runway is like this extrapolation of, like, if, like, even when we started in 2018 and you looked at the results of the day, you need to look more at the trend of, like, where we were in 2018 versus when we were at the, when the first GAN came out in twenty, four 2014 or twenty, fifteen. And, you started from, like, thirty-two by thirty-two images of faces, and then by the time in 2018, you could generate, street images at the 1K resolution. And it was the same with world models, very early signs of something much bigger.
Swyx [00:27:08]: Yeah. I was gonna say, like, it’s diffusing into focus. Like, if you look at our visible output from year to year, it looks like a diffusion process itself.
Anastasis [00:27:17]: Yeah.
Vibhu [00:27:17]: Especially watching the early, like, old blog posts, you can really see the choppiness, the details.
Anastasis [00:27:24]: Yeah. Like human civilization starting from random noise and then
Vibhu [00:27:27]: Yeah
Anastasis [00:27:27]: Denoising into
Swyx [00:27:28]: Yeah. Just run it a hundred years.
Anastasis [00:27:30]: Civilization.
Swyx [00:27:30]: Yeah.
Vibhu [00:27:31]: That’s how you’re on track, you’re still noising, right?
Swyx [00:27:34]: Yeah. I like the way that you guys phrased it when you, announced it in June, which is, oh, that you had a video essay. “The human mind is no longer the center of AI. Our world is.” Right? Which is, let’s, let’s call it the past five years of LLM-based AI is very much like trying to emulate human preferences and human speech. But now that’s, like, mostly solved. I think that’s, like, some of the context of your essay, which you also wrote around the time. And now it’s like the focus is on modeling the world accurately.
Scaling Laws for Video and Why Predicting Pixels Matters
Anastasis [00:28:03]: Exactly, yeah. So the way we see it is, there is that, initial mission statement of DeepMind, which is, solve intelligence and then use it to solve everything else. But I think it’s starting from everything else, could be valuable of, like, starting from. there is just so much complexity, and detail in the world that in order to. That it’s, it’s hard to learn directly from just human descriptions of the world. Like, we’re assuming that, like, language models learn from everything that humans have written about the world, like our own understanding as of, the twenty twenties. And there is just so much that we don’t know and so much that’s not captured by existing text, about both the low level dynamics of the world, like we’re not describing in detail. if I tell you to describe, like, how do you tie your shoes, that’s a very difficult thing to describe in words, but it’s very obvious thing to demonstrate. And so I think there’s been. And there’s, more of X paradox, like we’re constantly underestimating all the complexity that goes into very, like, things that we do subconsciously as humans, and we don’t even necessarily always have the words to describe them. And so in my mind, the simulating the world and simulating, physics, simulating the dynamics of the world has always been underestimated, compared to, we place too much emphasis on the things that are easy to talk about. but there is just all this complexity and richness of the world that if we just try and train directly on that observational data instead of training on how people describe the world, we would learn something new that we wouldn’t otherwise know.
Swyx [00:29:54]: You think that the present architectural paradigm is fine? You don’t need, like, another layer, like JEPA, like another famous, New York AI leader would say?
Anastasis [00:30:05]: We’re a very pragmatic research lab. If, we have evidence that an approach works better than the approach that we’re taking, then we have no qualms to taking it. We just have seen no indication that video prediction itself doesn’t scale. And even if you look now, not just our work, but the work of others, you’re seeing in robotics some of the most promising work, starts from video prediction models, and then you adapt them to also the action models, for example. so there is very little evidence that you need something else and that your time is better spent on a novel architectural change compared to improving data and improving the, and scaling the current approach. And so, We don’t have any indication that. the, there is that counterargument that I think there was a tweet by Yann LeCun a few days ago that, understanding the dynamics of the world is very different than, generating, cute videos.
Swyx [00:31:05]: And your answer is no, they’re the same thing.
Anastasis [00:31:07]: Yeah, they’re the same thing.
Swyx [00:31:08]: My cat videos are the same as understanding physics.
Anastasis [00:31:11]: Right, because if you wanna generate. video models can cheat and, like, they could you could give, like, successive dif shots of the scene in a way that doesn’t require you to simulate difficult physics. There is like, all these different ways in which you can hide the deficiencies of the model, and it’s important not to be too tricked by the performance of the current video models. It’s easy to, cherry-pick examples and think that video models are further advanced than they are. So there is a lot more work that we need to do to improve those models. But in my mind, very similar to language, and, like, we’ve. you go from barely coherent sentences to something that, could hold a conversation with a human to something that could can operate autonomously for a day and, like, create entire code bases. And the main difference, there is some architecture improvements along the way, but the main thing is scale. And so it’s the same bet for video, and we have no indications that this is saturating. Like, we have benchmarks that we use for measuring the physics of those models, and we see those predictably improve as we scale those models. So there is. If you want to Google up, Physics-IQ, is one of those benchmarks that measures how well does the model perform at solid mechanics or fluid dynamics or optics.
Vibhu [00:32:32]: I’m curious if you’ve seen any emergence, any scaling law around this.
Swyx [00:32:37]: Yeah, he’s saying there is a scaling law, right?
Anastasis [00:32:39]: Exactly.
Vibhu [00:32:40]: Yeah,
Anastasis [00:32:40]: So the way those models, those benchmarks work is you. the researchers have gone and, like, captured, a few videos that are representative of different physical phenomena, and then you can take the first frame and then pass it through an image-to-video model and then generate a rollout that shows what should happen next. So you have, a ball hanging from the ceiling, and then you use that as input, and then you the model predicts how the ball should fall on the ground. and this measures. we have an intuitive understanding of physics. I know, you can imagine what will happen next if I drop this bottle. So it’s measuring that same intuitive physics understanding of those models, and we’ve measured that at different model scales, and we see, and compute scales, and we see that the score on physics IQ predictably improves. There’s other, tricks and techniques that you can make to improve the score even further, but even scale alone helps, in the model learning better physics.
Swyx [00:33:40]: My main sympathy with Yann LeCun is the, Plato’s cave allegory, right? Like, you’re, you’re, like, learning on the output of a thing, not the internal process of a thing, and it’s very noisy. And, if only you could observe the internals of a thing. It’s hard to observe the internals of a human mind, but you can very much observe, or at least we have a whole branch of science and physics that we’re ignoring on how to model Physics and movement and, gravity and, other interactions. and we’re just, like, throwing away all of that and just saying just scale data, which is very much the lesson of unsupervised learning, but it feels wrong. that’s the main idea.
Anastasis [00:34:21]: I think the history of machine learning is, at large, it feels wrong.
Swyx [00:34:25]: Yeah. It’s a bitter lesson, right? Yeah. It’s, it’s, it’s the simple answer to that.
Vibhu [00:34:29]: I guess, how much can you scale? So, like, even on, let’s say, the video generation side, like, there’s one side of video understanding. Video generation, are we still gonna have tools where it’s like, I wanna generate two hours, twenty hours? there’s a infra way to do it in batches and stitch it together, but, like, do we just keep scaling? Do we just continue long generation consistency, all that at scale? And, like, tying it into where we’re at now from we looked at Runway two to four point five
Gen-3, Sora, and Runway’s Scaling Inflection
Anastasis [00:34:58]: Yeah.
Vibhu [00:34:58]: Like, technically, what advancements have we made to today, and then where do you see things still going?
Anastasis [00:35:04]: So part of the answer is definitely scale. and that was. We learned that lesson in a big way for with Gen-3. So Gen-3 was the model we released the year after, like in 2024. That was a few months after Sora was released. so yeah, there’s an interesting story of that came to be as well. Gen-3 for us was, the first time that we really needed to build. we had to learn all the lessons that the language model world learned in two in three years in the span of a few months. one of the biggest changes of Sora was using diffusion transformers instead of convnets. So a lot of the early, latent diffusion models were all, convnets for the diffusion model part. And the diffusion transformer paper came at some point in 2023, and it showed scaling laws for image, diffusion transformers. And we realized at that point that we needed to invest in infrastructure for model parallelism, for really scaling training to larger than, a few billion parameter models. And we spent maybe the, most of the fall of 2023 building out our infrastructure for distributed training. And we had a lot of false starts and a lot of failure in trying to scale, image and video diffusion transformers. And at that point, February 2024, Sora comes out, and the results are
Anastasis [00:36:35]: Very much superior to what Gen-2 could produce. There were a lot of, a lot of chatter on Twitter about Runway. Runway’s done. like, there is no way Runway will catch up. And if you remember, also OpenAI in the early twenty-It felt very, like it’s a
Swyx [00:36:56]: To the moon
Anastasis [00:36:57]: It’s a formidable opponent now, but at that point, it, they were on the top of their game. nobody could even get close to them. There was maybe Gemini was just the first version of Gemini had just released. So when OpenAI came with Sora and it was such a big jump of like quality, it gave me, there was like an existential crisis for a few hours. But that, I think the amazing thing about Runway and like I think the, we’ve been around eight years now, which is almost we’re dinosaur in AI, and we had to like, we had there was a lot of those moments we had to learn, adapt very quickly and build out skill set in the team that we didn’t have. And so, if you ask anyone what is their favorite time at Runway that was there during that time, it was that push in like three months to get to a model better than Sora. and it, we scaled 10x the model scale, the model size and the, compute that we were training on. we figured out model parallelism. We had zero expertise in that. And then we came out with Gen-3 during that summer. So that was a big turning point, I think, for the company where the research org grew very quickly, and we really started pursuing this vision of the general world model, in earnest, I think after Gen-3 was out.
Swyx [00:38:12]: Yeah. that’s the amazing thing about building when you’re building. There’s no stack to. You have to invent everything yourself. You have to be completely full stack. Now I think like there are inference specialists like Fal or whatever that can help with like, model serving, and I think you guys work with them as well. but yeah, like it’s, it. But at the time, it was just. It’s very interesting to think about what you do when Sora comes out and people are questioning whether your company should still exist.
Distillation, Turbo Models, and Real-Time Video
Anastasis [00:38:41]: Yeah. And yeah, there was no, there was no VLM of diffusion models. Like, we had to build the whole model serving infrastructure and make things efficient. And a few months after we released Gen-3, we released the Turbo version, which I think was the first step-distilled model in production.
Swyx [00:38:56]: That was a whole trend that we covered as well. Yeah.
Anastasis [00:38:59]: So that allowed us, to serve those models at the larger scale, ‘cause I think the first version of Gen-3 was quite, expensive to serve.
Swyx [00:39:09]: I think the whole like trend in like consistency models, Lightning and, Turbo and all these things somehow didn’t really stick around. I don’t know if you have any reflections on this. Because at the time, I was like, “Well, everything should start with a distilled model first, and then you can upscale,” right? It. your bigger models just turn into fancy upscalers, but like you should always draft with a smaller model and faster model, right? Because you can get it so quickly, like near real-time.
Anastasis [00:39:39]: Yeah. I would not be so sure to say that didn’t stick around. I think that, it’s, it’s likely to. that there is a lot of step-distilled models that are actively used in production. there is still a gap in quality compared to the, non-distilled model. but in my mind, we’re still. there is a two to three year offset from language models. So the things that, So it’s just a matter of time before there is better distillation techniques. we use. Right now we have a real-time model core character that I think is the largest deployment of real-time video models, that’s a step-distilled model, and it’s actively being used. It’s a very specific use case compared to a general video model. So this is a
Swyx [00:40:27]: Very cool, by the way.
Anastasis [00:40:27]: This is avatars stuff, right?
Swyx [00:40:28]: Consistency, character.
Anastasis [00:40:30]: Yeah. So this is a talking avatar, model. we were able to. we optimized the hell out of it, and it generates at 24 FPS, and it’s a, it’s a step-distilled autoregressive video model. So if we look at our world model direction, a big component of it is starting from the bidirectional diffusion that generates entire video at once and making autoregressive shows. So you generate one frame or a few frames at a time. so there’s a lot that goes into that pipeline of getting to a real-time model. It’s first you need to make it into a causal autoregressive model, and then you just turn it into. You need to do some additional step distillation to get it to be real-time. and I think that part is just starting. I’ll be very surprised if we’re, two years from now, we don’t primarily use real-time models. To me, real-time video generation is just inevitable that, it has much better user experience, it’s much cheaper to serve, and, the quality gap between the base model and the real-time model is only gonna close as we figure out better, distillation techniques. And we made a lot of progress there internally on maintaining the quality of the base model when we distill them.
Swyx [00:41:49]: How much of this is transferable? So is it the same base model? Like if you’re doing diffusion across the whole sequence and you’re converting it to step autoregressive distillation, is this like distillation where you still need to train both, you can use the same base and converter? What’s that process like to go from regular model to something that’s real-time on a technical level?
Anastasis [00:42:11]: So the nice thing about diffusion models is you have, two axes of distillation. So there is the. You can distill to a smaller model, which resembles what you do in LLMs, or you can distill in terms of taking less steps, less diffusion steps. So you could take a model that generates in fifty steps and generate in four steps and get to, You have some performance, degradation, but very often you get comparable outputs. So you can even take the large frontier model and distill it with step distillation and get to a real-time performance, and that’s what we’ve seen. So, depending on the use case, in some cases we might also serve with a smaller model, but in a lot of use cases, we just use the
Swyx [00:42:56]: Step distillation
Anastasis [00:42:56]: The frontier model, and we’re able to make it work in real-time.
Swyx [00:42:59]: I think this might be a good time to cut over to his laptop to show off some of the real-time stuff that you’re doing.
Interface World Models and Neural Software
Anastasis [00:43:06]: This is one of the research updates that we did recently. so we’ve been working and f in getting our general world models to, different applications. one of them that we think is very compelling is using general world models as essentially, an interface, a universal interface to software. This is a version of our world model that’s called an interface world model. and the idea is that it essentially, replaces, the, front end of a software application. It renders the pixels directly of an interface and is trained to predict what happens next as a result of, a click or another interaction you have with the interface. So this is all pixels. it’s there is no HTML, CSS, React that’s powering this interface. This is directly at the output of our real-time, video generation model, and it takes clicks directly as input.
Swyx [00:44:09]: And drags, click and drag.
Anastasis [00:44:12]: Right. So it supports
Swyx [00:44:13]: Ooh.
Anastasis [00:44:14]: Yeah, clicks. It supports drags. it also supports scrolling. and the amazing thing about this is that you can effectively describe in the prompt how you want different elements, like what do you want the behavior of different elements to be. So it’s almost you’re you can turn, an interface from, markup language description of, like, an HTML interface, and instead you can just describe the interface. if I press this button, I expect this to happen. If I press this button, this should happen. And it’s useful, we believe, both for prototyping, for, like, just testing, like, what different interactions would feel like. you can also add audio to it. So it’s a video audio generation model. So you get you essentially can describe both what the visual outcome should be of your click and also what the if there is a sound effect that comes out of it. So we believe that’s gonna be a much more flexible way of building software. Just render. It just, in why generate the code that generates the pixels? Just generate the pixels directly.
Anastasis [00:45:18]: It’s the end-to-end philosophy applying applied to front ends.
Anastasis [00:45:25]: So we think there is a few interesting use case. So you can build creative tools on top of it.
Anastasis [00:45:32]: We think that, for any use case that involves a lot of exploration or, like, educational use case where you wanna learn about a new concept and you want some visualization and like, and open-ended exploration, we think those this is a very powerful, approach. you can imagine new forms of, design, industrial design software that could emerge as a result of those models. And this is all, generated in real-time as well. So, you can build a lot of interesting camera transitions and forms of interaction that are very difficult to build otherwise. And one way in which we evaluate this is what if you try to generate the same interface with Claude by just, prompting Claude, “Here’s an image reference of my interface that I made in Figma or that I created somewhere else. create this particular interaction,” which in this case it’s, drag that object, upwards. and beyond it being slower, it’s also very difficult to capture some interactions by just fully, with just LLMs. So we think that this is likely to be the way that a lot of the future, like, software in the future will be created. and one of the additional benefits is personalization might be a lot easier done with those models. Like, you can essentially try out different prompts based on who is visiting the interface. You can, more easily, prompt engineer the interface to have larger size, text for more accessibility reasons, or you can make this or, like, if you have a particular aesthetic preferences. So we’re very excited about this approach. It’s early days, and I think we’ll need to, make it more cost-effective as well to serve those models ‘cause, running a real-time video model versus just purely rendering HTML, there’s -- the computational needs are much higher. but we do see a lot of potential in this approach to building front-end interfaces.
Swyx [00:47:47]: So we covered this similar thing with Flipbook before with our, Ethan Hara episode with Groq, video. And yeah, I think it’s very engaging visually. I think it’s maybe very good for education, but it’s it does sound expensive. I think there’s an upper bound to how expensive it will be, though, right? Like, the inference cost will go down over time. You’ll figure out ways to optimize it. Effectively, when it pauses, you don’t you’re not receiving human input. You don’t have to generate anything, right? So.
Anastasis [00:48:14]: Yeah, you could also. Like, in this case, you have ambient motion, so there is parts of the screen that might. if you’re let’s say you wanna, visit Paris and then you get this interface that allows you to explore.
Swyx [00:48:29]: People walking. Yeah.
Anastasis [00:48:29]: You have people walking or, like, things happening. But, it’s, it’s a no Yeah, it makes it more expensive because you need to run the model all the time. Maybe you have some looping mechanism so you don’t need to do that. But all those things, I think, is stuff we’ll need to figure out.
Toward a Fully Neural Operating System
Swyx [00:48:44]: Yeah.
Anastasis [00:48:44]: I think our first consideration is let’s make this clearly find some use cases where it’s clearly a much more compelling interaction compared to traditional interfaces. And then it’s a matter of time before it becomes more cost-effective to serve.
Swyx [00:48:58]: Yeah. When it comes to the people walking, I think the approach that makes the most sense to me is Nick.
Anastasis [00:49:04]: Nick.
Swyx [00:49:04]: Oh, God. I keep messing up their name. With Chris Manning and Fanny Yan. I don’t know if you’ve come across them, where they. Mapped to some game engine. I think it’s Unity or something, or Godot. And they you can script some NPC behavior behind that and train on that. Whereas here, you can really imagine whatever you want. Like, that is a UI, right? Like, and it feels, like, more tractable, I guess, to, create a world model of software that is interactable because we have many of examples of that, and you can, do your fancy RL environment stuff on that than it is scaling up to embodied and real-world physical use cases. But this is a nice first step.
Vibhu [00:49:43]: Or, there’s the opposite of you have, like, one B models, three 50 million parameter language models. It just gets so small that they’re just predicting, like, fishes moving.
Swyx [00:49:53]: Small models are now 120 B, so.
Vibhu [00:49:57]: Ultra mini on device.
Vibhu [00:49:58]: But, no, I think it, like, it puts it into perspective, at least the car one for me, like, the applications, right? The amount of work to do that, sure, you only make one model year car per year, but applying this, it’s also a cost-saving to have to manually make all this, right? So it opens up a lot of possibilities, too. I’m curious if you extend this out two, three years, so where do you see things going even further?
Anastasis [00:50:25]: Effectively, the end game of something like interface world models is you have, a fully neural operating system. So I think, Andrej Karpathy has written about that quite a while back. But it’s, You, I think to me it’s, it’s a bit, it’s a bit odd that, we have, for example, with an interaction with an LLM of today, you have this LLM that can talk to you about anything. It can You can take the conversation in any direction. You can It’s very general, so it can solve all those different tasks, but you interact with it through a very rigid interface. And so to me, it’s just a matter of time before the interface itself becomes learnable and becomes, part of the whole loop of, like, you’re not just delivering. You’re delivering an application end-to-end, and that means you’re delivering the language model, but you’re also delivering the render and the pixels and that’s also a learnable component. And the concept of applications might not necessarily. I think we’ll need to figure out new abstractions for software. the concept of application comes from this idea that you need, separate code bases to describe, to, for, to power each individual, tool and each individual application. But you might think of something a lot more unified if you’re. if you have, a video model that’s generating the interface as you go. so it can take context from an LLM and allow you to combine different functionalities that traditionally would live in different applications. So it’s a, it’s a way to solve, software end-to-end, effectively. We also see this as a powerful way to train computer use agents as well. so this is, one way to see this as. And in general, with world models, there is those two directions. One is world models for humans and world models for
Swyx [00:52:24]: Agents
Anastasis [00:52:24]: To train agents.
Swyx [00:52:25]: Yeah.
Anastasis [00:52:25]: And so for every new work of, world models that we do, we have this both uses become possible. So this is a powerful synthetic data generator for training computer use models. It could become, a live, RL environment that you could use to do online RL with a computer use agent, and you can get wide diversity of different interactions, kinds of interfaces, just generated on the fly that, to improve the how robust the, your agent, becomes. So that’s the same also with the world models that we’re working on for a robotics use case as well.
Long Context, Error Accumulation, and Autoregressive Video
Swyx [00:53:02]: Is there a research breakthrough that you’re Waiting for that would unlock the next set of use cases that you really wanna pursue?
Anastasis [00:53:10]: Long context is a very important one, so being able to maintain consistency for long periods of time, and that depends on the use case. So for our characters model, for example, or for the interface world model, it’s easier to maintain long sessions of interaction. If you go into more open-ended worlds that you navigate and you take arbitrary actions in, we, like, there is more the context at which you can and duration which you can generate becomes limited much more quickly.
Swyx [00:53:40]: Yeah.
Anastasis [00:53:40]: So we see more degradation and error accumulation happening. so the biggest challenge with autoregressive models is error accumulation, is you’re feeding generative frames back into the model to generate the next The next frames. And if there is any small errors, they accumulate over time. That’s not a new problem. It’s a problem that LLMs also have, and we’ve seen the ability to generate now really long outputs. So it’s a solved problem, but it’s definitely still a challenge.
Swyx [00:54:08]: Yeah. And what is the state of the art? so for Grok, it would be like 10 to 20 seconds of context going in there for video.
Anastasis [00:54:16]: With our characters models, we’re able to generate up to 30 minutes of video autoregressively.
Swyx [00:54:21]: Yeah. But that’s just for the avatars.
Anastasis [00:54:24]: Yeah. So if we look at, GWM Worlds, which is more our open-ended world exploration model, it’s, it’s on the order of a few minutes, which is Yeah, so
Swyx [00:54:35]: Probably enough for people because you have to cut to the next scene anyway, right?
Anastasis [00:54:40]: Yeah, it’s not, it’s not the ideal game experience if you have to restart every few minutes. So I think. But, I think it’s. Yeah, for certain kinds of game experiences, you can work around it. ideally, you are able to just generate forever, and it doesn’t, it doesn’t degrade. And I think that’s a matter of time before we get there.
Swyx [00:54:59]: Yeah. Genie has, like, one, max one minute?
Anastasis [00:55:01]: Right. Yeah.
Vibhu [00:55:02]: This was your. You did a study on robotics. I think I also have just your Runway Robotics page, though. Is this better?
GWM Robotics and Sim-to-Real Evaluation
Anastasis [00:55:11]: So last year we released Gen-4.5, so that was our latest base model. We’ve been As I mentioned, we’ve been doing all this work in world models, and which essentially a lot of our approach to world models is how do you take a bidirectional diffusion model and make it autoregressive and make it accept actions? So instead of being a video you watch, it becomes a simulation that you step in, and you can, control it every step of the way. You can explore counterfactuals, like what happens if I take this action versus if I take this action. And GWM-1 was the it’s the world model that we built on top of Gen-4.5. So we did all this autoregressive and like, distillation, auto-regressive and then step distillation on top of Gen-4.5. And one of the biggest use case that we saw for GWM-1 was in robotics. One thing we like to say is we as we scaled video models, we accidentally, created one a state-of-the-art model for robotics, by just scaling video models. So we realized at some point, mid last year that robotics labs that are coming up to us and asking to use video models for synthetic data, asking us to post-train our video models to work really well for robotics, so that they can use that to generate variations. That was the first use case that we saw. And then increasingly became clear that the models will be useful beyond just creating synthetic data to train robotic policies. They would also be very useful as simulators. So that means that you can use, a video model online to test how your robotic action model performs. So you can take an action role and then get the outcome of the action inside the world model and then continue that loop like this closed loop simulation. And you can use that to evaluate how well your robotics model works. and the biggest thing that I think you need to solve if you want to build a simulator is establishing real-world correlation that if you take an action inside the world model, if you take the same action in the real-world, you get a similar outcome. So that was the goal of some work that we did earlier this year. So if you go to the first link. So that was, essentially wanted to establish that, real to sim correlation for our world model, so that if you do a series of actions inside the world model and if you do the same actions in the real-world, you get similar outcomes. And we took our GWM-1 model and we used some benchmark data that there is this Roborina, benchmark that’s very commonly used to evaluate how well do different action models perform. And we use the same scenarios and settings and embodiments inside our world model, and we measure the correlation of how well did the action model perform inside the world model versus in the real-world. And we saw that we could get very good correlation between our world model and reality. And that means that if you want to evaluate how well your robotic policies perform, you can scale that much faster inside simulation instead of having to do that with actual physical hardware. And so that was a first indication that our models could be, quite useful in robotics. And we saw as we were working with robotics labs that became like the first use case where they could use video models in a way that feed into their training pipeline.
Vibhu [00:58:40]: Can I ask what
Anastasis [00:58:41]: Yeah
Vibhu [00:58:41]: The difference was from four point five to solving that? So the sim to real gap has always been the issue, right? You train a robotics model on video data, it doesn’t generalize to real-world, and the simulation had an issue. So seems like you solved it, but how?
Anastasis [00:58:56]: Yeah. So a big problem with simulators is, if you’re trying to simulate rigid objects, like it works quite well if you can describe the physics of objects very accurately, then you’re able to use, Isaac Sim or MuJoCo or one of the traditional simulators. But for more complex interactions with cloth, for example, or, like slippery surfaces, with the all the complexity that you want to be able to solve with the manipulation, with an action model that solves manipulation tasks, it’s very difficult and so time-consuming to build, for each of those environments and each of those tasks, build the simulated version of that, the digital twin of that environment. Whereas with a world model, you just need to provide the first frame and then you just can roll out the policy inside the first frame. So whereas, we compare it to methods that required like 3D scanning an environment and then 3D scanning each individual object before you can now, you can bring that to simulation. whereas with a world model, you just take a picture of the environment and then you’re able to test how your policy performs. Our general thesis on robotics is, there is companies that are leveraging a lot of teleoperation data to train robotics action models. There is now companies that are using, humie data, which is, essentially human, egocentric video where humans use robotic creepers to perform different manipulation tasks. And then there is companies that are focusing on egocentric data, which is, you strap a GoPro on someone’s head and then you capture them performing a task. We think that, and all those are great source of data for training robotics models, but the most plentiful source of video data is third-person video data. It’s And if How do we as humans learn how to perform different tasks? A lot of it is by observing others perform those tasks. We don’t learn from first person. We do some trial and error and like, to learn different things, but. Ultimately, a lot of what we learn how to do in the world, we learn by watching other people do it. And that’s how when you’re pre-training a video model, you’re essentially doing that. It’s a lot of third-person video footage of people performing different tasks in the world, people doing sports, people doing household tasks. And our main thesis is that video pre-training, once you do that, you can then adapt a model to be useful in robotics use cases with way fewer hours of actual robotic data. So you require way less teleoperation data, which is very difficult to scale. and even if you look at egocentric data, which is a bit more easy to scale compared to teleoperation data, which requires actual hardware,
Why Third-Person Video Is a Powerful Robotics Pretraining Source
Anastasis [01:01:55]: It’s still three hours of magnitude less of that exists in the world compared to third-person video data out there. And so our thesis is and generally, like the most plentiful source of data will ultimately wins. Third-person video data pre-training is the right starting point for models that, you want them to generalize and be able to deal with new environments, new tasks, things that you haven’t seen during training. That’s the motivation for why we think our models are especially useful in robotics, settings, and we’ve seen that to be the case, as well.
Swyx [01:02:32]: You said pre-training. So maybe it’s like third-person pre-training, first-person SFT? Is there like a curriculum that you can introduce?
Anastasis [01:02:41]: Exactly. So if we look at GWM Worlds, so GW so GWM Robotics. So digitally in robotics, it starts from Gen-4.5.
Vibhu [01:02:49]: It’s the same video diffusion backbone, right?
Post-Training World Models for Robotics Embodiments
Anastasis [01:02:53]: Exactly, yeah. So you start from the base video model, the one you’re using to generate, cats and dogs and other interesting stuff, and then you, fine-tune on a very small number of hours of robotic data. So it’s something on the order of hundreds of hours compared to if you were to pre-train a robotics model. The current pre-trainings go up to, a hundred thousand or like millions of hours of data. And you’re able to get quite good performance, quickly, because the model leverages all the things that it has learned about the world, physics and human dynamics and the tasks that people care about from pre-training. And ultimately, you want those models to generalize. You don’t want to just be able to perform the tasks that it has been doing training. And the diversity of actions and environments that you have with a pre-training video dataset is much larger than, what you can realistically capture manually.
Vibhu [01:03:54]: How is the scale looking like for the post-training? Like, do you still wanna do, is it like roughly ninety percent of the compute in regular video diffusion model and then scale up a lot, or do it like we want different robotic models for different tasks, or just the one base really good world model can also apply to robotics?
Anastasis [01:04:14]: So currently, we are post-training our models for specific, embodiments that we for particular partners. So if they have a particular single-arm robot or a bimanual robot or a humanoid robot, we would post-train our GWM robotics model on their particular dataset. Over time, we see the different variants of GWM unifying. Like, I would expect, if a year from now or two years from now, you have a single world model that can simulate manipulation tasks, it can simulate navigation, which is a lot of the gaming world models are navigational world models. You’re moving around the space, and it will also simulate human behavior. So that’s the character models. So instead of having three different models, you have a single model that’s able to. ideally, you’re able to simulate what it’s like to be in the world. You’re moving around an environment. You’re maybe performing different tasks. you’re talking to other people. And that happens with, the same, a single real-time video model that’s generating that.
Vibhu [01:05:17]: Do you think you can solve self-driving? So if you are learning to drive a car in a simulator, you have a world model. Your robot is car can manipulate so many axes. How far off are you from something like that?
World Action Models, Self-Driving, and Learned Policies
Anastasis [01:05:31]: So world models
Vibhu [01:05:32]: Or a really good ADAS system?
Anastasis [01:05:33]: World models are definitely being applied to, self-driving, research right now, mainly for evaluation use cases, but our focus has been more on robotic manipulation. We’ve done some work on AV, world models as well. but yeah, we do think that world models are and video models are the best starting point for both simulators and also policy and the action models. So that’s, that’s the other side to this, is that once you have a great world model, then you can just add an action head, and it can predict actions as well. One way to think about it is if you take the starting frame of a scene with a robotic arm and you ask, you prompt the model, generate the arm picking up an object, it would And if it generates an accurate enough video, then it should also be able to generate the exact poses, in 3D that the arm should take to perform the same action. So this is the direction that’s now the popular term for it is world action models, which is you’re starting from a video model, and then you’re adding an action head to predict the actions, and it becomes a policy, essentially.
Swyx [01:06:43]: One thing I’m also impressed by is how much data you need to train these kinds of models. You probably can’t say exactly how much, but like, the original, diffusion models, and from what I know, even of the open source Chinese models, it’s not that much data. Isn’t it surprising?
Anastasis [01:07:02]: What do you define as much data?
Swyx [01:07:05]: Yeah, and it just comes, goes in. Is the token count still relevant?
Anastasis [01:07:09]: So it’s a bit more complicated and,
Swyx [01:07:11]: What is just gigabytes, right?
Anastasis [01:07:13]: Yeah, hours of video, right?
Swyx [01:07:15]: Yeah. Yeah. I feel like something that’s interesting is it seems like the, let’s call it tokens to param counts in language models has really, maybe they’re three years ahead or whatever, seems to be a lot higher than, video models still, even though technically video has more information, per bit. I don’t know if it seems intuitive or maybe there’s just a lot of, like the variability between a pixel to the next pixel is not that high. So, like, maybe there’s just a lot of information that is repeated.
Scaling Video Data and the Lucid Dream Test
Anastasis [01:07:47]: My answer would be it’s still very early. Like, the training video models will scale way further than it
Swyx [01:07:55]: Yeah
Anastasis [01:07:55]: Currently is, and you’ll have capabilities that go much further than the current models can do. So one thought experiment that, I like to use, it’s, it’s almost like the Turing test of video models or like the Turing test of world models, go, I call it the lucid dream test. It’s you have a
Swyx [01:08:14]: You mean the actual person lucid dream?
Anastasis [01:08:17]: It comes from this idea
Swyx [01:08:18]: Lucid rains, right?
Vibhu [01:08:19]: Lucid dreams is telling you’re dreaming while you’re
Swyx [01:08:22]: Yeah.
Anastasis [01:08:23]: Yeah, exactly. So lucid dreaming is when you realize you’re
Swyx [01:08:25]: In a dream
Anastasis [01:08:26]: Inside a dream, and then you
Vibhu [01:08:28]: Play around
Anastasis [01:08:28]: Be able to control what happens in
Swyx [01:08:30]: No, there’s also an inference guy called Lucid Rains. Yeah. Or quantization
Anastasis [01:08:33]: Very prolific, person. Yeah. So let’s say you have a VR headset and you’re in a room with and you’re wearing a VR headset, and that VR headset, most of today’s VR headsets have a pass-through mode, so you can see directly what’s in front of you in the world, or you can render something inside the VR headset. And there’s gonna be a point where those interactive real-time video models become good enough where you wear the headset and you’re in the same room and you’re walking around and you’re kinda and you’re interacting with objects. You’re able to move freely in that room and do, and interact with any object. And at the end, someone asks you, “Did you were you using pass-through mode, or were you -- or was this, rendered or generated, footage?” And if you cannot tell for sure if that was what you were seeing as you were interacting with and moving around the world was generated or it was, pass-through mode and was just what was happening in front of you, that’s an indication that the models have become good enough. And we’re not, we’re not close to that yet. And a lot of it is just this idea of really simulating dynamics and counterfactuals well. Like, if you ask a video model to generate a person scoring a goal versus a person failing to score a goal, it would do a better job at scoring the goal because there is a bias from the training distribution. There is a lot more videos of the person succeeding at scoring the goal. But if you have an interactive model, you want it to be able to generate counterfactuals. Like, if I take this action versus this action, you want it to generate equally realistic outcomes. so that’s, I think, the big gap between video models and world models is that idea of the counterfactual generation. And if you want a great model for robotics, you wanna simulate failure very well, because whether you’re using it for evaluation or you’re using it as a in an online RL loop in the future, you wanna be able to have the model try and fail to do things and improve. and so in order to do that, you need to be able to simulate things failing.
Swyx [01:10:42]: This is the only domain where you have too many successful examples and not enough bad examples. Should be easy to generate failure.
Vibhu [01:10:51]: Oddly enough, I think, like, early image video models weren’t good at being human realistic, right? Like, you see aa lot of the high-res 4K, like, professional photography, but not just everyday life, like normal picture, right? Everything looks like it’s professionally generated, like professional pictures, but not just like normal, like, messy cables on a desk.
Swyx [01:11:13]: Okay, so there’s, there’s this stuff. one thing we also covered that you guys have, video agents that you launched. I guess, how does the traditional, let’s call it frontier, like, autoregressive LLMs, like, feed in, to all this? They’re driving ro your robotics models, or are they driving others, your video agents, production, anything where you see the overlap of autoregressive and diffusion, let’s call it?
Counterfactuals, Failure Data, and World Model Evaluation
Anastasis [01:11:41]: Yeah, so harnesses are really important across all those different use cases. So we have this video agent, which is essentially an LLM that is very effective at tool use of different, image models, video models, and helps you through creating a project end-to-end. So, very often in, like, a traditional advertising flow, you have a brief, you start from it, and then you generate some a storyboard, and then you generate the video. A video agent and, or runway agent helps you through that whole process, and it helps you also analyze performance data. For example, how well did this ad perform versus this ad, and then generate me more of the based on those learnings, figure out what to generate. We think that the harness is a very important piece of the pipeline. as I mentioned, all the video production, all the production video models use some prompt completion that happens, and we expect, that to become more and more complex and more, you generate longer and more detailed descriptions before you use the diffusion transformer. I do think eventually, there’s increasingly this unification into omni models where you have the you’re training the models end-to-end to both do autoregressive text prediction and also, diffusion as well. So you’re predicting the next token, of like you’re, you’re maybe using some reasoning and planning of the scene, and then you’re passing it into the diffusion head that’s generating the pixels.
Video Agents, Harnesses, and Omni Models
Swyx [01:13:10]: Yeah. I think currently maybe only Gemini and Qwen do it. I-I’m not sure which of the Chinese models are omni, but yeah, it’s, it’s not, it’s not a very well, popularized modality, I guess.
Vibhu [01:13:25]: It’s an interesting use case when you think about it, right? Because not only do you have to end at like language model reason, diffusion had generate, you don’t have to output there. You can go back in to feed that output to the same model, reason again on improvements, and it can do a lot of loops just in its own. I guess the question is like, do we need that or can we just do agent scaffold, like do it outside the model? Is there a big benefit to doing it in?
Anastasis [01:13:54]: I think there’s generally the trend of something is first done by a harness and then it becomes part of the model, right? So you had the chain of thought prompting where you had to do this super detailed system prompts to
Swyx [01:14:07]: Yeah, step by step
Anastasis [01:14:08]: Get the output. And now the model generates the reasoning trace by itself before it gives you an answer. And in the, in video models similarly, a lot of the video models of the early days were single-shot video models, and you had to use some orchestrator to turn, generate multiple shots in parallel, and then turn it into an actual video.
Swyx [01:14:28]: Or in ComfyUI, just all over the, all these nodes.
Anastasis [01:14:31]: Yeah, like a spaghetti workflow. and now you have multi-shot video generation where you have the you directly generate multiple shots. And there is a benefit to that because then the video model learns some. to generate a single shot well, you need to figure out a lot of stuff about the world. to generate multi-shot video well, you also need to get some, like, video editing instincts. Like, you need to figure out what is the right pacing of shots. And also, LLMs are not that good at it. Like, they’re not that great video editors. If you ask a LLM to take some videos and then auto-create a edited video out of that, it would feel uncanny. So I don’t think LLMs are that good yet at being video editors. And I think there’s benefit to learning that end-to-end. so I would expect, the training generally is the things that, you need the harness for eventually get injected into the model itself, and you learn that end-to-end.
From Harnesses to End-to-End Learned Video Editing
Swyx [01:15:33]: Do you find that you need to hire engineers who can. or researchers who are also artists to infuse that taste, or do you have artists in residence to distill them?
Anastasis [01:15:44]: We have a large creative team that’s very actively involved in the, in training those models, like on the, in every part of the way. And like, how do you caption video as well so that you capture the stuff that you need for, like, the cinematography, the aesthetics, the camera direction in as detailed ways as possible so that you’re able at inference time to elicit that through the model? we have our creative team also does a lot of evaluation of like, what constitutes a usable video out of those models. And so they’re very involved through every part of the process. And I think that’s one of the special things of Runway is just that mix between like creatives and researchers sitting by, side by side and working together to build the next generation of our models. I think that’s been a really important piece to, how we’ve operated as a company.
Swyx [01:16:37]: Yeah. In some senses, though, you can only do this in New York.
Vibhu [01:16:40]: It’s
Swyx [01:16:40]: Maybe, you have other offices, but like, I try to find some poetic, significance in the fact that you are a big New York company.
Anastasis [01:16:49]: As there’s a few parts to being New York. there is that intersection of all those different industries and, like, media, advertising, like
Swyx [01:16:57]: Yeah, this is very advertising.
Anastasis [01:16:59]: The, like the art scene is New York. Not to say anything bad about San Francisco, but, it’s. There is more going on. There is that component, and there’s also, I think we benefit from being outsiders and thinking of things a bit differently, like not being in the same, like, hive mind of,
Swyx [01:17:19]: BВС
Anastasis [01:17:19]: ASI, of Bay Area and, like, taking. and also taking our time to get where we are today. Like, building the, growing the team intentionally and bringing people who are, yeah, both on the creative side and also on the engineering research side. There’s huge talent pool of amazing people in New York, so that hasn’t really been a problem.
Creative Taste, Artist Feedback, and Runway’s New York Advantage
Swyx [01:17:41]: Congrats on everything. what are you hiring for? what should people look forward to, for the future of Runway?
Anastasis [01:17:49]: We’re hiring across the board. I think this is probably the most open roles we’ve ever had in the history of Runway. we’re growing our research team quite significantly. So if you’re, if you’re excited about video models, if you’re excited about world models, if you’re excited especially about robotics, the robotics team, we’re hiring roles in the robotics across, software, hardware, and research. so definitely reach out.
Swyx [01:18:13]: And, a lot of people don’t have direct robotics background, but what should they have, if they want to be useful in robotics?
Anastasis [01:18:21]: So ideally, some experience with learned policies, would be
Swyx [01:18:26]: Just RLs
Anastasis [01:18:27]: Good for robotics. but we tend to hire generalists as a philosophy and, like, people who learn really quickly. but some experience in the, in domain expertise in robotics is something that we’re, we’re definitely looking for the next months. and then we’re scaling the go-to-market team significantly. There is, a wide, like, very active enterprise adoption happening around video models at the moment, and, we’re really trying to, respond to all the demand.
Swyx [01:19:00]: Yeah. Great. You wanna talk about the, open source robotics stuff?
Vibhu [01:19:04]: Sure. It was just random notes we had.
Vibhu [01:19:07]: NVIDIA launched Cosmo. I guess it’s interesting. So, you’re a founding member AI labs to build open source world models in physical AI. - Anything else to talk on here is open research?
Anastasis [01:19:20]: The biggest thing is that, as I mentioned, while models are still, early, like there is still so much that we you can scale and those models further, so much more advancements and things that we can figure out and how to improve those models further. And I think this is, it’s important that some of this research happens in the open and figuring out what is some incentives for different companies to come together to bring some of that research into the open and open source. And so Cosmos Coalition was a initiative that we co-founded with NVIDIA to bring some of that research as open source. And that could mean open weight model releases. It could mean benchmarks that measure physics and things that people care about when building world models. It could mean infrastructure. So really, how do we grow the ecosystem of world models and make that something that also it’s easier for a developer, a researcher that’s just starting out that is excited about world models to contribute to the field.
Hiring, Robotics, and Enterprise Adoption
Swyx [01:20:19]: I think it’s a there’s some amount of like, is this also our response against the Chinese world models that are being released, or is there not part of the consideration?
Anastasis [01:20:29]: I do think it’s, it’s important for NVIDIA models, if you look at the leaderboards of video models, I would say right now the majority of models at the top ten, top twenty are Chinese models. There is, only a handful of companies that are made it to the leaderboard from like the US or the West.
Swyx [01:20:50]: Yeah. We’re doing better with images, but with video we’re very behind, right?
Anastasis [01:20:53]: And so I think it’s definitely important that we invest more broadly as a community to make sure that we can those models can we have competitive models
Swyx [01:21:02]: Yeah
Anastasis [01:21:02]: Out there.
Swyx [01:21:03]: But like what’s to stop us from just distilling from them?
Anastasis [01:21:06]: I don’t know if that’s the best long-term
Swyx [01:21:08]: Not gonna mention that they won’t
Anastasis [01:21:09]: That you’re bounded by the performance that you can. It’s, it’s almost a bit of a pessimistic
Cosmos Coalition and Open World Model Research
Swyx [01:21:14]: Like
Anastasis [01:21:14]: View that you can get better. you can
Swyx [01:21:17]: It’s free data. it’s, you might as well. Like if they’re, they’re doing it for like, for the text language side, they might as well do it for the video side the other way.
Anastasis [01:21:25]: Yeah, I do think we’re, we’re quite capable of training great models
Swyx [01:21:29]: Okay
Anastasis [01:21:30]: Without distillation at the moment. Yeah.
Swyx [01:21:32]: Yeah.
Vibhu [01:21:32]: So anything you have to say on benchmarks and evals? Like, I feel like what I’m hearing is a lot of people really like arenas for video and image models, customers and whatnot as well. They only want the best on the leaderboard, and they refer to arenas a lot more than language models seem to do. But any notes on benchmarks, what’s lacking? How does the average person compare while these both look really hyper-realistic? More than that, outside of we did talk about like robotic simulation, the physics and all that, but anything to say?
Anastasis [01:22:05]: I think it’s the opposite in some ways. I think people, generally creatives and artists and marketers, other like people that are using our platforms, I think rely less on, arena scores. And it’s, it’s just so easy to, generate with a bunch of different models and then compare the results visually. Like one nice thing about image and video models is you can immediately tell with your eyes like what feels good from an aesthetic standpoint. Like any artifacts, any issues with the physics of those models, you can immediately tell. and so that’s it’s easier, I would say, to evaluate, as a human. there is also those models than it is in language models where you have those very complex math and coding and, tests where it becomes a lot more harder, I think, for humans to evaluate and can discriminate between the performance of models at a time. So I think in practice, people just test out the same prompt with a bunch of different models and see what the results look like. And right now in Runway, you can use our models and you can use third-party models as well. So it’s, it’s very easy to do that.
Benchmarks, Arenas, and How Creatives Evaluate Models
Swyx [01:23:12]: Amazing. We’re gonna end with the AI Runway AI Summit. The last societal issue, I guess, I don’t know if this is a thing, is the, you are at the tension between artists and creatives and AI. A lot of people in that community hate AI. the people that are in the Runway community don’t mind using tools. it’s just another brush. But, how have you seen the sentiment change?
Anastasis [01:23:37]: Our perspective, yes, it’s just another branch, brush. It’s just another camera. It’s, it’s the latest of a long generation of tools.
Swyx [01:23:46]: Technology in art.
Anastasis [01:23:47]: Technology.
Swyx [01:23:47]: Yeah.
Anastasis [01:23:47]: And art and technology have evolved together. I think there’s been a pretty significant shift over the past few months, and it came. some of it you can see with a lot of public figures speaking out in favor of AI and being, like in Cannes, you saw a few directors speaking in favor of AI. We had Ron Howard in our film festival. There is, Mark Scorsese also adopting AI models. So you have more of those stories coming out every day of like a well-known figure, speaking in favor of AI. And it’s just a matter of, in my mind, it’s those models are becoming more and more demystified. I would say I have also a bit of a hot take that one of the things that made the initial response to those models maybe a bit more heated than it needed to be was this idea of text to video of, you have a single text description and you get back a -full video.
Artists, AI, and the Evolution of Creative Workflows
Anastasis [01:24:48]: Yeah, there was a misconception. you can generate it to our feature-length film, but the models of today now take a lot of references. They take they are very controllable. And I think when people see a tool that allows, affords many degrees of freedom and control, they respond to it differently. And it matters less that it’s a generative model than the fact that you can steer it to the direction that you want. and so. I think when people look at, complex workflows on top of those models, when they look at, all the ways in which you can steer them and you can provide now with some of the latest models up to fifty references, like the conversation becomes a bit different because it feels much more like a
Swyx [01:25:34]: Storyboard
Anastasis [01:25:35]: A tool
Swyx [01:25:35]: Yeah
Anastasis [01:25:35]: Versus, like, something that a magical entity that figures out, like, the, your entire film for you.
Vibhu [01:25:43]: Any notes on, like, workflows changing for people in the field? Like, I think engineering at least has had a lot of people where they’re like expectations have changed. I’m, ten X, a hundred X more productive, and you can get a lot more done. same thing as, you’re making dev tools for creatives. any notes there? Like, there’s some people that don’t wanna adopt, some that do. Like, anything?
Anastasis [01:26:08]: Yeah. So I think, in terms of, like, what people care about, I see that we have gone through a few stages. So we started from a stage where the main thing that people were looking for was quality. Like, as, we scale those models, the quality improved dramatically. That’s something that people still care about, but it’s, it’s now in addition to controllability, like being able to steer those models with references, with, different kinds of inputs, with storyboards. And now my sense is increasingly people are gonna care about latency more and more. As those models become better, the ability to iterate very quickly becomes more important. And, like, if you can, with a single prompt generate ten different, outputs, like, almost instantly, you can explore way faster than before. And you get some of the magic that characterized the creative tools of the past, like Photoshop was instant. and we lost some of that with generative models. You’re waiting for two minutes to get back a video, and I think we’re gonna bring, some of that back now with the
Vibhu [01:27:08]: Real-time
Anastasis [01:27:08]: Real-time models.
Vibhu [01:27:09]: Yeah. Exciting. And
Latency, Real-Time Generation, and the Future of Creative Tools
Swyx [01:27:11]: Exciting. the last thing we’ll plug is this one, Runway
Vibhu [01:27:14]: Summit
Swyx [01:27:14]: Summit. You’re finally doing this in SF?
Anastasis [01:27:18]: Yeah. So, we’re very excited about this. So this is, in late September thirtieth, we’re doing a summit on, primarily focused on physically high and real-time video generation. We have panelists from NVIDIA, Physical Intelligence, Botco, DeepMind. Yeah, it’s gonna be, I think, a very interesting series of conversations. We try to make the panels really technical and, elicit actual substantive discussion and hopefully some interesting disagreements and interesting debates on things. And, yeah, the there’s tickets available. Hope people can join.
Swyx [01:27:56]: Since you mentioned it, what disagreements and debates should people think about, or do you expect?
Anastasis [01:28:04]: So it’s things like, there is, one debate right now in the robotics world is, VLA’s versus world action models.
Runway AI Summit and the Big World Model Debates
Swyx [01:28:11]: Okay.
Anastasis [01:28:11]: So there is labs that are really betting on one of those two directions. there is like what is the best source of data to train robotics models?
Swyx [01:28:21]: There’s just the third-party, first-party that we talked about.
Anastasis [01:28:24]: Yeah. There is, the people who really believe in further scaling teleop data versus leveraging more large-scale video data. So that, those are some of the. And then there is, the world models debates of predict pixels directly versus something like JEPA versus a more 3D-based, 3D-based approach. so I think we’re at a nice time in world models because there is still that active debate happening on, like, what is the best long-term direction. I feel very strongly that it’s video predict pixels directly and scaling video generation models is the right approach. But it’s, I think there is a lot of interesting, debate happening, by researchers on, like, what is the best path to take.
Swyx [01:29:09]: It’s interesting that it’s all on, like, let’s call it the policy layer and the data model layer. Is the physical side is completely solved? Like, all the sensors, all the actuators, all these things are. We have everything that we need?
Anastasis [01:29:23]: I don’t think that’s, solved either.
Anastasis [01:29:25]: It’s definitely,
Vibhu [01:29:27]: Different problems.
Swyx [01:29:28]: It’s, it’s like
Anastasis [01:29:29]: Yeah
Swyx [01:29:29]: I wanna dream about all these things, and then I get, I buy a robot or I buy, I try to assemble my own, and I can’t even get the motors to, like, work right. Right? Like, and it’s you’re dealing with very sensitive, equipment that has, voltage and power and, like, heat and all these things which, you, abstracted away. We’re sitting here, we’re talking about software and talking about models, but, like, really you have to deal with those kinds of things too.
Anastasis [01:29:56]: Yeah. And, I think I’m, I’m, I’m generally also not opposed to incorporating other modalities into our models like we’ve seen.
Multimodality, ImageBind, and the Maximalist World Model
Swyx [01:30:04]: Yes.
Anastasis [01:30:05]: The simplest case is they can generate video and audio at the same time. So they can generate RGB, and they can also generate, they can generate sound and audio. But my. I’ve written about this as like what does the maximalist version of a world model look like is you’re incorporating more and more modalities from the universe And you’re training a model on different scales of observations as well.
Swyx [01:30:28]: X-rays.
Anastasis [01:30:29]: And so, yeah,
Vibhu [01:30:30]: You got a good essay that people should read on
Anastasis [01:30:33]: Yeah. Yeah
Vibhu [01:30:33]: Real-world.
Swyx [01:30:33]: No, Meta released a model that was, like, six modalities in one, right?
Vibhu [01:30:37]: Yeah.
Swyx [01:30:37]: I forget what the name of the thing was, but it was like, yeah, okay, depth is one of them, but depth is like a transformation of RGB in some sense.
Vibhu [01:30:45]: ImageBind.
Swyx [01:30:45]: ImageBind, yeah.
Vibhu [01:30:45]: Yeah.
Swyx [01:30:46]: What other modalities? They had heat?
Vibhu [01:30:47]: Audio, depth, heat, text,
Swyx [01:30:51]: Whatever IMU is.
Swyx [01:30:52]: I do think, like, you might as well do ultraviolet. You might as well do, like, just whatever other modality you feel like, ‘cause it’s all data to the model.
Anastasis [01:31:01]: Yeah. And, a big bet is also that there is transfer between all those modalities.
Swyx [01:31:05]: Yeah. Yeah.
Anastasis [01:31:05]: So one of my favorite, examples, which is quite old at this point, is there was this fine-tune of, Stable Diffusion that was called Riffusion Which was
Swyx [01:31:14]: The music one. Yeah.
Anastasis [01:31:15]: Yeah, just fine-tuning, Stable Diffusion on spectrograms.
Swyx [01:31:18]: Spectrograms.
Anastasis [01:31:18]: And it became a quite capable music generator. Right? So there is probably Spatial patterns, so like spatial-temporal patterns if we’re talking about video that emerge at different scales and different modalities. And so there is some degree of, meta-learning that the model has done that allows it to learn faster if you start from a just a model trained on images and train it to predict audio than if you train from scratch on just audio. and there is some other interesting examples. So there is this project called The Well. It’s, it’s a dataset of physics and numerical simulations in physics and biology and a bunch of other domains. So it’s, so it’s essentially different physical systems across very different scales of space and time, from like astrophysics to low-level like atomistic interactions. And we’ve seen. we’ve done some work on this, and we’ve seen that we can take our video model where, real-world video looks nothing like this, and you can fine-tune it on those numerical simulations and just treat them as RGB frames. And you get reasonable performance much quicker than if you just train from scratch.
Anastasis [01:32:36]: Yeah.
Vibhu [01:32:36]: I think we’ve seen this across languages where
Swyx [01:32:38]: Yeah, DeepSeek-OCR as well.
Vibhu [01:32:40]: Yeah, DeepSeek-OCR.
Swyx [01:32:41]: Like, you don’t have to tokenize text. Like, you can just throw them in as images.
Vibhu [01:32:44]: There’s a lot that happens in that base pre-training. Like, there was an argument a long time ago of people saying, “Oh, humans have so many, sensory representations, right? Smell, touch.” Models have a whole two more modalities that we’ll like, that we don’t even have data for. And it’s like, okay, you take AQI sensor, like you can try this stuff, but there’s so much happening in just the base trainer on that you don’t get as much from these little things.
Scientific Data, Cross-Modal Transfer, and Omni Models
Anastasis [01:33:10]: Yeah, exactly. And I think that’s what it solves is data scarcity.
Vibhu [01:33:13]: Yeah.
Anastasis [01:33:13]: So you don’t have as much. You have so much video data available, but you don’t have, like olfactory data that
Vibhu [01:33:21]: The cool thing is it goes the other way too, right? So if you wanna do physics, like if you wanna measure this or you wanna have a diffusion model do audio, it transfers really well. So like in your case, the little bit of post-training for robotics gets a video model to use its fundamentals in another domain. So we can apply that to other stuff too.
Anastasis [01:33:40]: Yeah. And if we look at, like how do you make those models more useful for in scientific domains, and if you look at AlphaFold, they’ve had all these very. Because of the data, the limited amount of data that it needs to be trained on, it’s it’s very fine-tuned architecture just to solve, protein structure prediction. But if you take all those disparate sources of scientific data and you bring them together under a single model, like I think that’s an approach that can help us solve new kinds of problems across science by leveraging all the learnings from one modality or one set of, data to another. So very early days for that direction, but I do think that’s where ultimately what the end game of simulating the world is. You’re not just using RGB. You’re using RGB as a starting point, but you can incorporate more and more modalities of the universe and leverage the transfer that happens from learning from one to the other.
Vibhu [01:34:42]: I guess the follow-up there is what’s the drawback of omni? Like, why is everything not an omni model? Also, why not now, and why. Would you start from language backbone or image video backbone and then go omni from there? Does it matter?
Anastasis [01:34:57]: Yeah. We need to take it one step. We need to solve robotics first, and then we can go into
Swyx [01:35:02]: Solve everything now.
Anastasis [01:35:05]: Yeah. I do think there is a lot of open-ended research that needs to happen for, those omni models. There is a lot of things that require careful consideration when you’re bringing multiple modalities into a single model to predict. But I think, I expect those to be solvable.
Closing: Film Festivals and the Future of AI Video
Swyx [01:35:23]: Wonderful. you’ve been very generous with your time. Congrats on all your success, and, yeah, I’m excited for the, AI Summit, or physical AI Summit.
Anastasis [01:35:32]: Yeah, thanks for having me.
Swyx [01:35:33]: And yeah, and people should check out the film festival if it’s in town, right?
Anastasis [01:35:37]: Yeah.
Swyx [01:35:37]: Yeah. You’ll be gonna be touring all over the place.
Anastasis [01:35:39]: Yeah. Next year we’re probably gonna do that. So we do film festivals every May or June of
Swyx [01:35:45]: Yeah.
Anastasis [01:35:45]: And we did the last one in New York, LA, Tokyo, and at the AI Engineer,
Swyx [01:35:52]: Yeah
Anastasis [01:35:53]: Fair.
Swyx [01:35:53]: Yeah. Yeah.
Anastasis [01:35:54]: So yeah, hopefully even more places next year.
Swyx [01:35:57]: No, I think like someday, you will be hosting the Oscars of AI video, and, I think people should like take this very seriously as like a potential career they can have.
Anastasis [01:36:07]: The Oscars of AI video will be called the Oscars.
Swyx [01:36:10]: All right. All right. Thank you.
Anastasis [01:36:14]: Thank you.


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The OpenAI → Hugging Face attack has people asking “what else do we need to worry about?” and Anthropic’s filters flag two things: cyber-security and biology. The natural question is: what about bio-security, then?
Clem Delangue argues that cyber-warfare defensive capabilities need to be open and to keep pace with frontier models’ attack capabilities
Radical Numerics co-founder Eric Nguyen sat down with us and explained why the same models that increase biological capability can also keep defense from falling behind.
Building a virus from scratch
While he was at Stanford, Eric couldn’t get traction on Genomic Language Models (GLMs) for a long time. Biologists didn’t believe it would work, didn’t think they could verify the output, and didn’t see important applications beyond what they could already do. He kept pushing, eventually helping lead the development of Evo and contributing to Evo 2 at Arc Institute. Those models were later used by a separate Arc/Stanford team to generate entire bacteriophage genomes that were synthesized into functional viruses!
Long context unlocks biological intelligence
Early ChatGPT spit out poems and email, and early DNA language models like Evo and Evo-2 could build a genome from scratch. DNA is different, however, from natural language in that it has a very small alphabet (4 characters ACTG) and that its sequences are very long:
* 60K for an average human gene
* long being up to 2.3M
* the whole human genome around 3B.
Innovation in long-context models made this possible about 3 years ago (footnote: striped hyena), long before the frontier labs were building 1M+ context models.
Now Eric and other AI x Bio luminaries have founded Radical Numerics to build and scale GLMs to tack a wide range of biological problems, extending well beyond generating DNA.
Thinking in DNA
Their GLMs already do pretty well with RNA and protein because there are clear markers in the DNA sequence for genes (RNA sequences the perform many functions) and specific genes that encode proteins. This means that the models already generalize to multiple “languages,” before even attempting to train in other modalities, such as 3d protein structure, epigenetics and natural language.
If a model thinks in the DNA language, maybe it understands the imprint that environment left on different genomes as well? Perhaps the model has learned the functional relationship between different sequences, and could extrapolate to new sequences based on that?
And so what we wanted to showcase was that if we show the model progressively better RNAs in a series of steps with its score, right? So you have like low scores first and then you gradually move up the chain. Can the model continue that trajectory on its own? And then in the final step, does it self optimize to a point where it's like the best score it can get? That was the experiment. Can we do that? And so we took a data set, a large data set of aptamers. We held out a portion of the best performing ones and we showed it only the lower ones, but then we ranked it, right? So we showcase lower scores with the RNA aptamers and then progressively got higher, and then ask the model to just like continue with that pattern. And it turns out it was able to recapitulate some of those higher scores that we had not shown it yet.
So, voila: chain-of-thought, thinking in DNA!
The arms race
But much as long-context inference, chain-of-though and multi-modal perception unlocked sophisticated reasoning in natural language LLMs, these capabilities in GLMs are enabling increasingly sophisticated “biological intelligence,” and along with it, greater danger.
According to Eric, defense is currently losing this battle, but Radical Numerics argues to push the frontier harder!
I won’t spoil the details for you. In the episode we talk in detail about:
* Biosecurity as an arms race — and how defense can keep up
* The genome as the imprint of the environment on DNA
* Going truly multi-modal
* How chain-of-though works when you “think” in the language of DNA


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How often do you get to talk to a guest who has both an Academy Award and who invented textbook machine learning algorithms? John Platt has an Oscar, two textbook algorithms, two named asteroids, and an Erdos-Bacon number of 6. This was easily the most fun bio of all the guests we’ve read to date. And the result was an epic and fun chat covering Google’s Empirical Research Assistance (ERA), how AI can help battle climate change, and tons of great stories about the co-evolution of science and AI.
John’s colleague Dave Bacon likes to tease John that his career has been defined by being twenty years early to the next big thing. This may be convolutional neural networks (some credit him with coining the term), fusion research, quantum computing. John and Google have been working on solving some of humanity’s hardest problems with AI and computation for well over a decade now. Recently John and his team set their sights on using AI to solve any scientific problem that can be written down as a score.
Google’s Empirical Research Assistance (ERA)
John’s team has taken on many hard scientific problems over the years. In solving these, they noticed a pattern, many scientific problems can be reduced to what John calls a “scoreable task”. Once you have the score function, the goal is to find some code that maximizes the score. The hard part is in formulating the score, but once you have the score finding the maximizer can still be quite a lot of effort.
John’s team set out to automate solutions to this general problem. This came out of the idea of an “auto-Kaggle” AI, which can solve any Kaggle problem you can throw at it. Kaggle is owned by Google, so all the data was ready and easily available to them!
The result is Google’s Empirical Research Assistance or ERA (paper, github, blog). ERA is surprisingly simple conceptually. Gemini (or your LLM of choice) keeps a running tree of past experiments (notebooks) and where they’re going. It’s a close cousin of Monte Carlo Tree Search: at each iteration the Upper Confidence Bound rule picks which notebooks are most promising to mutate. This is optimistic, not greedy, so sometimes even the fifth-best notebook gets chosen. Gemini then proposes mutations for each one, about ten at a time. The history of each branch is shared, so different leaves can learn from each other.
“It’s almost like having a hyper-eager grad student who doesn’t sleep.”
Evolutionary algorithms have been around since the 70s, but this works because Gemini actually knows where to look! What’s even more interesting is that there was a step change between Gemini 2.0 and 2.5, and this went from just not working to working great.
ERA is so powerful that John and his team solved many outstanding problems with it, resulting in at least ten papers. Some of these were climate change related, which we talk about in the next section.
So, we had to ask: if you have an optimization god how do you avoid fooling yourself? John’s answer is that ERA provides predictive models. It’s up to the scientist to make sure they’re truly descriptive. Some of this just involves good old-fashioned careful machine learning science. “It’s a power tool. It can slice your fingers off.” This led to some fun discussion about Kaggle competitions, and the fun ways people can overfit to datasets without meaningfully solving the problem you actually care about: Google’s contrail-detection competition was won by entrants who noticed a half-pixel error in the labels (is the origin at the corner of the pixel or the center?) and this turned out to be a part of the winning special sauce. Great for winning $15,000, not so helpful if you actually want to solve contrails.
“People themselves will act like these LLMs and try to reward hack. It goes back to Goodhart’s law: any metric that becomes a target is no longer good as a metric.”
His advice for where to start instead?
“Always just fit linear regression. Just do it. Just do it. Just do it. Or SVM.”
Tackling Climate Change with AI
John and his team have worked extensively to mitigate the effects of climate change. We talked about several of their initiatives.
Perhaps the most interesting result we talked about was reducing the effects of condensation trails (contrails) from airplanes. Those little streaks you see running behind planes somehow account for 1% of all human-induced global warming?!? Some of these trails of ice crystals can hang out for days. These crystals are black in the infrared, acting like a thermal blanket that traps heat day and night.
It’s easy to understand what’s happening here, a region of atmosphere becomes “ice supersaturated”, and a tiny bit of exhaust seeds water vapor that instantly crystallizes. The scale here is astounding, with a single gram of exhaust resulting in ten kilograms of ice crystals.
The solution to all of this is quite simple, in principle! We know what parts of the atmosphere are most likely for the trails to form. Just have the planes drop a flight level or two. Problem solved, right? Well, the hard part is accounting for how much warming was prevented. This is a counterfactual problem, parts of which stumped John’s team for over two years. They had a working model for the heat-trapping half, but not for the reflected sunlight. ERA was able to find a simple model with some confounders they hadn’t considered. Cracked it!
Modeling climate generally is a hard problem. Climate is best thought of an attractor of many different possible weather outcomes. This makes it much harder to model.
“Weather is where you are on the attractor, and climate is the statistics of the attractor. The problem with climate is that we’re altering it. The attractor itself is changing, it’s moving.”
John and his team have worked on treating both the symptoms and the disease of climate change, with several other works in the area. Another fun example we briefly cover is FireSat, a way of using a constellation of satellites to rapidly identify fires before they grow too big to put out. For anyone living in California, you understand the problem. In dry years a small fire can result in hundreds of thousands of acres. If you could find this fire when it’s the size of a room, it could be put out. By the time it hits an acre we have a much harder problem.
Where is this all going? Looking forward by looking back
By now it should be clear John has an incredible and unique view over the intersection of science, computation, and AI. John talked about a class on physics of computation he took with Richard Feynman back in 1982. This was when quantum computing was an ill-defined concept with no theory or experimental backing. John recalls every Tuesday was a guest lecture, and every Thursday was Feynman explaining why the Tuesday guest was wrong. John also recalls doing science back when there was essentially no compute, a million operations per second was cutting edge.
What is John’s recommendation: the most important skill is developing deep domain expertise. There’s no other way to develop taste than to tackle hard problems. One surprising part of this is that John recommends spending time doing things the old fashioned way. Play with tools, and just implement things yourself.
“You could drive up the mountain, or you could hike up the mountain, and maybe it’s okay, even fun, to occasionally hike.”
Summing it up, John’s message to the audience is that there will still be a place for scientists, and that if anything it will just open up more opportunities for “the creative stuff, the rigorous stuff, the philosophy stuff.” But don’t forget to spend time doing the grunt work.
“There just seems to be this strong impetus in the world to optimize and squeeze everything out. But you do lose something when you hyper-optimize. It’s overfit.”
And whatever tools you end up using, John’s advice is the same one Feynman gave him forty years ago: you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.
We had a great time talking with John. We hope you enjoy!
Also in this episode
* Fusion is three years away, not thirty, if you ask John. And why the Lawson criterion means every fusion approach has an Achilles heel.
* Why superconducting qubits are still finicky.
* The asteroid he named after his mom, which turned out to have a moon.
* The looming helium shortage nobody talks about.
* How NeurIPS started as people crashing a private workshop at Snowbird, and why Hopfield networks are all you need.
* Being Carver Mead’s sysadmin on a VAX with an 80 MB disk the size of a dishwasher.
* Finding asteroids in 1985 with film, a stereoscope, and a letter to Brian Marsden. The Vera Rubin Observatory found 11,000 in six weeks.
* The Feynman effect: total clarity in the room, none once you leave.
* Quantum echoes, the NISQ era, and why he thinks quantum is neither thirty years away nor tomorrow.
* A startup that wants to inject mercury into a fusion reactor and sell the transmuted gold. “It might not work.”
* John’s 20% time rule for his own group: do stuff for learning, and you don’t even have to tell him what.


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