“The US Executive vs Supreme Court Deportations Clash” by NunoSempere
Forecaster perspectives Sentinel forecasters in aggregate assess as “83% true” (65% to 100%) the statement that the Trump administration has disobeyed the Supreme Court so far. On the one hand, the Trump administration has done nothing to “facilitate” bringing Abrego García back to the US, and this White House's tweet shown below clearly indicates that it won’t try to; on the other hand, it could yet still do so when the current news cycle subsides. On April 17th, forecasters estimated a 66% chance (50% to ~100%) that Abrego García will not be brought back to the US within the next 60 days (by June 17). Data on the number of deportations in past administrations are available but can be difficult to compare between administrations; some up-to-date sources include refusals at the border due to Covid (“Title 42 expulsions”) under Biden, but other data have been discontinued. Perhaps a good [...] ---Outline:(00:12) Forecaster perspectives(03:16) Summary of events(03:31) The Abrego García US Supreme Court case.(05:41) Developments since the Abrego García Supreme Court case(08:07) Next steps for the court case(09:32) Plans for further deportations(11:29) The Insurrection Act(12:43) Implications and recommendations---
First published:
April 21st, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hGXvn6GXABHjfzn7C/the-us-executive-vs-supreme-court-deportations-clash
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
--------
15:02
“Accountability Sinks” by Martin Sustrik
Back in the 1990s, ground squirrels were briefly fashionable pets, but their popularity came to an abrupt end after an incident at Schiphol Airport on the outskirts of Amsterdam. In April 1999, a cargo of 440 of the rodents arrived on a KLM flight from Beijing, without the necessary import papers. Because of this, they could not be forwarded on to the customer in Athens. But nobody was able to correct the error and send them back either. What could be done with them? It's hard to think there wasn’t a better solution than the one that was carried out; faced with the paperwork issue, airport staff threw all 440 squirrels into an industrial shredder. [...] It turned out that the order to destroy the squirrels had come from the Dutch government's Department of Agriculture, Environment Management and Fishing. However, KLM's management, with the benefit of hindsight, said that [...] ---
First published:
April 22nd, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nYJaDnGNQGiaCBSB5/accountability-sinks
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
--------
28:51
“The Uses of Complacency” by sarahconstantin
Midjourney Our Culture Expects Self-Justification I really like David Chapman's explication of what he calls “reasonableness” and “accountability.” At least in the culture he and I live in, one is constantly called to account for one's behavior. At any moment, one may be asked “what are you doing?” or “why did you do that?” And one is expected to provide a reasonable answer. What's a reasonable answer? It's not a rigorous, beyond-a-shadow-of-a-doubt proof that at this very moment one is engaging in “optimal” or “morally correct” or “maximally virtuous” behavior. That would indeed be an unfair expectation! Nobody could possibly provide such a justification on demand. What people actually expect is a more-or-less plausible-sounding account that makes your actions sound understandable, relatable, and okay. You have a lot of leeway to present yourself in a favorable light. Not infinite leeway — if you’re caught shoplifting, it probably won’t be [...] ---Outline:(00:14) Our Culture Expects Self-Justification(01:43) Asking for favors(02:52) Denying requests(04:09) Defending Your Reasoning(05:24) Demanding Justification is a Cheap Heuristic(06:24) It's Good To Have A Self-Serving Narrative(07:51) Isn't This Just Rationalization?(10:23) Everybody Gets To Stop Somewhere(11:52) Don't Knock Mere Feeling Good---
First published:
April 21st, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cQ2ub5wjdyzoHTbab/the-uses-of-complacency
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
--------
14:43
“$500 Bounty Problem: Are (Approximately) Deterministic Natural Latents All You Need?” by johnswentworth, David Lorell
Audio note: this article contains 36 uses of latex notation, so the narration may be difficult to follow. There's a link to the original text in the episode description. Our posts on natural latents have involved two distinct definitions, which we call "stochastic" and "deterministic" natural latents. We conjecture that, whenever there exists a stochastic natural latent (to within some approximation), there also exists a deterministic natural latent (to within a comparable approximation). We are offering a $500 bounty to prove this conjecture. Some Intuition From The Exact Case In the exact case, in order for a natural latent to exist over random variables <span>_X_1, X_2_</span>, the distribution has to look roughly like this: Each value of <span>_X_1_</span> and each value of <span>_X_2_</span> occurs in only one "block", and within the "blocks", <span>_X_1_</span> and <span>_X_2_</span> are independent. In that case, we can take the (exact) natural latent [...] ---Outline:(00:51) Some Intuition From The Exact Case(02:16) Approximation Adds Qualitatively New Behavior(02:59) The Problem(03:02) Stochastic Natural Latents(04:04) Deterministic Natural Latents(05:26) What We Want For The Bounty(06:43) Why We Want This---
First published:
April 21st, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e9KwDDdAxborNSuCd/usd500-bounty-problem-are-approximately-deterministic
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
--------
7:23
“Crime and Punishment #1” by Zvi
This seemed like a good next topic to spin off from monthlies and make into its own occasional series. There's certainly a lot to discuss regarding crime.
What I don’t include here, the same way I excluded it from the monthly, are the various crimes and other related activities that may or may not be taking place by the Trump administration or its allies. As I’ve said elsewhere, all of that is important, but I’ve made a decision not to cover it. This is about Ordinary Decent Crime.
Table of Contents
Perception Versus Reality.
The Case Violent Crime is Up Actually.
Threats of Punishment.
Property Crime Enforcement is Broken.
The Problem of Disorder.
Extreme Speeding as Disorder.
The Fall of Extralegal and Illegible Enforcement.
In America You Can Usually Just Keep Their Money.
Police.
Probation. [...] ---Outline:(00:38) Perception Versus Reality(04:21) The Case Violent Crime is Up Actually(05:31) Threats of Punishment(06:23) Property Crime Enforcement is Broken(11:33) The Problem of Disorder(13:59) Extreme Speeding as Disorder(15:17) The Fall of Extralegal and Illegible Enforcement(16:42) In America You Can Usually Just Keep Their Money(18:53) Police(25:56) Probation(28:46) Genetic Databases(30:56) Marijuana(36:20) The Economics of Fentanyl(37:26) Enforcement and the Lack Thereof(41:20) Jails(45:20) Criminals(45:55) Causes of Crime(46:33) Causes of Violence(47:52) Homelessness(48:44) Yay Trivial Inconveniences(49:25) San Francisco(54:24) Closing Down San Francisco(55:47) A San Francisco Dispute(59:31) Cleaning Up San Francisco(01:03:20) Portland(01:03:30) Those Who Do Not Help Themselves(01:05:30) Solving for the Equilibrium (1)(01:10:30) Solving for the Equilibrium (2)(01:10:57) Lead(01:12:36) Law & Order(01:13:16) Look Out---
First published:
April 21st, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9TPEjLH7giv7PuHdc/crime-and-punishment-1
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
France