The Grumpy Strategists

Michael calls in from Count Binface's campaign to beat Reform UK's Nigel Farage in the Clacton by-election. The Grumpies ponder a Binface-type manifesto for Australia - "I will cut your taxes and raise everyone else's," along with "The hand-dryer in the gents' toilet at the Great Himalayas restaurant Southport to be moved to a more sensible position". Practical politics for real people.
Then Marcus unveils his path to make the AUKUS submarine program a truly national endeavour. It involves Strategic Analysis Australia being the centre of a new, mandatory, national contributions program centred on residents of the Australian Capital Territory. This leads naturally to Australia's developing contortions, somersaults & rotations around the fact that US submarines stationed in Australia will be carrying nuclear weapons, in breach of Australia's commitments to a nuclear free South Pacific under the Raratonga Treaty.
The episode covers the astounding new release of Australia's 2026 Defence Innovation and Science strategy just two years on from the last one. Defence Science head Prof Tanya Monro (AC) uses this to prove that innovation requires nothing new and nothing to be achieved besides a font change and a modest cover page redesign.
It ends with two philosophers: the new Chief of the Defence Force, Mark Hammond and his deputy Rob Chipman, and Grand Admiral Hammond's rousing commitment to an Australian military centred on Lethal Wellbeing.

Marcus undertakes an emergency mercy flight to Washington DC to comfort and counsel Department of War deputy Elbridge Colby, stunned by the stab in the back from America's Aussie ally on American access to a sub base in Western Australia. After telling Americans and the world that US subs use of the base had always been time limited and would end in 2032, Mr Conroy undertook an intense self-criticism session. Demonstrating his flexibility, he then directly contradicted himself on instruction from his Party senior, Deputy Prime Minister Marles. But the damage was done. It turns out America is just the most recent nation to experience the dangers of trusting Australian officials on anything to do with submarines.

Beyond the support session for Mr Colby, the Grumpies find time to assess the Australian Defence organisation's latest achievements in transparency, contrasting these with the fresh approach of the local Canberra Integrity Commission that names everyone involved in a corrupt multi-million dollar construction program - because that is in the public interest. Meanwhile, the Federal government is fighting to not release unclassified information about nuclear waste plans, and Defence is suppressing the name of a senior officer facing allegations of financial and other misconduct.
The episode ends with an assessment of prime minister Albanese's attempt at national leadership on AI, which is mystifying in its failure to engage with almost all the key issues.

It's a packed episode from the SAA bunker deep in the Brindabella Hills: Marcus gets into the world of high fashion with Gina Rinehart and Pauline Hanson, Michael marvels at Canada's "Three Stupids" from their recent submarine decision (although it's not clear who the stupid ones are: the Canadians who will get actual, new, submarines within a decade, or us AUKUS folk Downunder). Then the Grumpies assess the American military's first active use in war of unmanned surface attack drones and outline the effects of Ukraine's increasingly long range strategic bombing campaign against Russia, using drones and domestically designed and made cruise missiles. The episode ends with the mystery of a secret court martial of a senior Australian Navy officer, another scathing Audit report on Defence's management of taxpayer $millions, and the eerily-similar emptiness of UK Government and Australian Government "new defence money" numbers and plans.

In Episode 76, the Grumpy Strategists ponder revelations of $29 billion of waste in just some of Australia's big defence projects from Minister for defence industry Pat Conroy. His answer: bold reform that changes things in minor ways that look eerily like the flawed approach Defence took a decade ago. Instead of the Vice Chief of Defence being responsible for decisions, under these bold reforms, the Vice Chief of Defence will be responsible. The good news is that for all the failure and waste of the last decade, it was the fault of no individual making no bad decisions. No. It was 'the system' that forced these powerful well-paid officials to NOT make decisions and be paralysed by paperwork. Now these fine leaders will be free to do what they have always wanted to do but were stopped from doing - by the system they built, lived in and presided over. It's a courageous set of bold changes that will clearly take some time - probably beyond any current minister or official's time in office - to really bear fruit. The Grumpies celebrate Australia's massive and growing Documentation Overmatch over even powerful potential adversaries like the Chinese military, who are reduced to firing nuclear capable missiles into our neighbourhood in the absence of effective paperwork or a meeting to go to.

Marcus and Michael each pick their three stand out takeaways from Australian Defence officials testimony about delivery and performance to the Parliament. It's hard to pick winners in a field like this, but there's some overlap in the Grumpy choices. Taxpayers and the Parliament are not amongst them, unfortunately.
Looking at the performance of senior Defence officials, 'Condescending emptiness' and 'falling upward' are terms that come to mind. None of this is building public trust in our Defence organisation or its leadership.
Beyond the nasty realisation that senior Australian Defence officials are no longer servants of the public or the Parliament, but simply creatures of the Government of the day, it's good to have individual officials on the public record making claims that can be compared to evidence. Past statements (even carefully crafted avoiding manoeuvres) didn't stack up well for several - including incoming Chief of Australia's military, Mark Hammond. New Secretary Quinn displayed novel contortions to the English language and made a new 'AUKUS truth' that others then embraced.
Then the Grumpies helicopter away from events in the Parliament and look at UK defence trouble, and the sobering realisation that AUKUS has turned into a rationing exercise: sharing out submarine numbers that would have existed without the whole AUKUS hoopla between the three Navies.
Meanwhile, while AUKUS nations plan to get beyond rationing and increase submarine numbers sometime in the 2040s, China is shifting the AUKUS goalposts: out-producing the three nations on increasingly capable nuclear submarines, and building an extensive set of complementary undersea capabilities.
Expectations that AUKUS might shift the military balance in the Pacific away from China look doomed to disappointment.