Supply Chain Secrets

Freight markets are turning earlier than usual. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down sharp declines in quoted rates, early signs that the Chinese New Year peak has already passed, and what actual paid spot rates are signaling across key trades.
Lars also walks through a real-world example showing how choosing the wrong index in an index-linked contract can materially impact costs, underscoring why detail matters as indexing gains traction. The conversation then turns to tariffs and the Red Sea, where new signals—from carrier routing decisions to a fresh Houthi warning—suggest risk may not be fully behind us yet.
A practical discussion on what shippers should watch as volatility continues into 2026.

As 2026 gets underway, early signals are already diverging. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Matthew Chicalace of Hellmann Worldwide Logistics to break down the growing gap between quoted and paid rates, early NYFI movements post–Chinese New Year, and what those signals really say about the market.
The conversation also dives into rising interest in index-linked contracts, how forwarders and carriers are approaching contract season, and why volatility remains structural. Finally, Lars unpacks the latest developments around the Red Sea reopening, geopolitical risks tied to Iran and Greenland, and how quickly trade lanes could shift again in 2026.
A timely discussion on how shippers are navigating uncertainty—and why flexibility and alignment matter more than ever.

As 2026 gets underway, early market signals are already diverging. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down where freight rates are heading post-Chinese New Year, what the latest Container Trade Statistics reveal about global demand, and why North America continues to lag the rest of the world.
They also explore escalating geopolitical risks — from Iran and the Strait of Hormuz to Greenland and terminal ownership — and what these flashpoints could mean for global shipping lanes, capacity, and pricing. Finally, the conversation returns to a familiar conclusion: volatility isn’t going away, and understanding the gap between quoted and paid rates is becoming more critical than ever.
A timely look at what’s shaping early 2026 — and why shippers should stay alert.

In this 2025 year-end review, Caroline, Lars, and Don Davis reflect on a year defined by tariff whiplash, uneven demand, and persistent gaps between quoted vs. paid spot rates. They also look ahead to 2026, where the base case remains continued volatility—with the Red Sea/Suez question, shifting capacity, and geopolitics keeping markets on edge.
Key themes covered:
Why 2025 ended “mixed”: SCFI up while paid, loaded spot rates stayed uneven
How tariffs reshaped shipper behavior toward more just-in-time ordering and priority services
Don’s view from ZIM: strong and growing interest in index-linked contracts, including first-time adopters asking how structures work
The outlook for 2026 rate volatility: continued big swings driven by uncertainty, capacity rebalancing, and potential routing changes
A clear wrap on what defined 2025—and what could make 2026 even harder to forecast!

Global shipping enters another volatile week. Caroline, Lars, and guest Michael Wray of Ocean Network Express (ONE) unpack rate swings across key trades, shifting sourcing strategies, Mexico’s new China tariffs, Red Sea uncertainty, and a surge in maritime risk incidents—from border conflicts to tanker seizures.
In this episode:
NYFI trends across Asia–Europe and the Pacific
Why 20’ > 40’ pricing persists on TA eastbound
The slowdown in Asia–Europe demand
Mexico’s new tariffs on China
Red Sea ceasefire signals & alliance decision-making
Rising maritime risks in the Black Sea, Hormuz, and Southeast Asia
Northern Sea Route reality vs. media hype
The latest on ONE Henry Hudson
Clear, fast insight into the forces shaping 2026.