Supply Chain Secrets

Pacific spot rates are holding flat while futures signal the peak may already be over, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd just made a move that could mark the beginning of a Red Sea normalization after two and a half years of disruption.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why Asia-USWC rates are flatlining around $5,200 while the futures curve still points sharply lower, and what that means for the rest of July
The Gemini alliance's AE15 service switching back to Suez routing and what it signals about carrier confidence in Red Sea stability
Panama Canal draft restrictions tightening through August as El Niño risk grows, and what history says about the ceiling on disruption
Maersk's upward earnings revision and why it says more about Maersk's earlier pessimism than the overall market
USMCA uncertainty and what a US pullback could mean for deeply intertwined North American supply chains
EU shipping emissions data: container vessels down 6.7% per TEU year over year, even as total emissions remain elevated versus 2023 due to Red Sea rerouting
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Transpacific spot rates are skyrocketing while Asia-North Europe tells a completely different story, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most container traffic after a week of missile exchanges between Iran and the US.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why Asia-US West Coast spot rates are approaching East Coast levels and what that historically signals about market instability
What the $1,600 gap between current Pacific spot rates and July futures is telling the market
The latest in the Hormuz crisis, including the attack on the Ever Lovely and what the "evacuation" language from IMO actually means for container shipping
Port connectivity winners and losers: how Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, and Sharjah are absorbing volume while Gulf ports go dark
Tariff uncertainty heading into July 24, when Section 122 tariffs expire with no clear successor
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Asia-North Europe rates are up another $400 week over week, the futures curve points higher still, and the Strait of Hormuz is open, closed, and open again depending on which hour you check. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all of it.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates at $3,563 and climbing, with July futures pointing $740 higher than current levels and August expectations also revised up. Asia-USWC at $4,264, up 6.3% week over week, with futures suggesting the Pacific apex may already be here
Why the spread on Asia-USEC has widened to $2,000 between the 10th and 90th percentile -- and what that means for how you interpret the index relative to your own rates
The Hormuz situation: an MoU, a declaration it was open, a declaration it was closed, vessels doing U-turns, and talks ongoing in Switzerland all within 72 hours
Why CMA-CGM permanently shifting its FAL 3 service back to Suez on the backhaul is about capitalizing on peak season capacity, not just route normalization
A fifth piracy attempt in two weeks in the Gulf of Aden, why ultra-large container ships have a natural defense, and why smaller vessels are at greater risk
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Rates on Asia-North Europe and Asia-US West Coast are surging, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been signed, and El Niño is now official with an 88% chance of being historically severe. This week Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all three.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates up $1,000 in a month with futures pointing higher still, and Asia-USWC breaking above $4,000 per 40-foot with a volatility spike driving record hedging activity using the NYFI index
Why the rate rally is being driven by supply and demand fundamentals, not Hormuz fuel surcharges, and what CMA-CGM's $4,000 peak season surcharge announcement signals about carrier confidence
The US-Iran memorandum of understanding: what it says, what it does not say, and why AIS data showed no change in vessel movement through the strait in the first 48 hours
Piracy resurgence in the Gulf of Aden and three attacks in two days including one on a Maersk feeder vessel
El Niño confirmed and now forecast as potentially the strongest on record: what Panama Canal shippers need to plan for now
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Spot rates on Asia-Europe and Transpacific are climbing fast. The easy explanation is Hormuz. The right explanation is supply and demand, and the data Lars Jensen pulled this week makes the case clearly.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates have now exceeded the Chinese New Year peak and are closing in on summer 2025 levels, with futures pointing higher. Asia-USWC and USEC continue their sustained upward trend
Why the rate surge is driven by demand outpacing capacity, not fuel surcharges: Asia-Europe demand up 12%, Transpacific up 11% in April, with capacity failing to keep pace on both trades
Why the 22% capacity injection planned for Asia-Med in July is a Hormuz spillover effect, not a true demand signal, and what it means for peak season
Hormuz update: Iran-Israel escalation, EU sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Houthi re-entry into the conflict, and what closing Bab el-Mandeb would mean for Persian Gulf bypass routes
Panama Canal draft restrictions effective July 3rd, what El Niño means for Lake Gatun water levels, and why Lars sees the early action as a positive sign
Why Panamanian flag vessel registrations are dropping 1% per month and what the US-China geopolitical battle has to do with it
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Asia-North Europe
Asia-USWC/USEC