Supply Chain Secrets

Ocean freight markets are sending mixed signals this week: Asia-Europe spot rates are falling, Pacific rates are ticking up, and Atlantic rates jumped sharply, but the bigger story is the widening spread between what different shippers are paying and what that uncertainty means.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why expanding rate spreads across Asia-Europe, Transpacific, and Atlantic trades signal growing market uncertainty
The Strait of Hormuz situation: the failed opening, vessel U-turns, Iranian attacks on ships, and what comes next
Bunker fuel prices in context: why current levels, while high, are not the crisis they appear to be
U.S. consumer sentiment hitting a 66-year record low and what that means for container volumes

Freight markets are reacting to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but not in the way many expected.
In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, we break down why rate increases have been relatively modest so far, despite major geopolitical disruption, and what signals to watch beneath the surface.
This episode covers:
 • Why Asia–US and Asia–Europe rates are rising gradually, not sharply
 • The role of bunker fuel in driving current rate increases
 • What early NYFI-linked futures activity is telling us about market expectations
 • How rerouting and limited transit through Hormuz are shaping capacity
 • The risk of escalation and what it could mean for key logistics gateways
 • Demand trends, including strong global growth and continued bifurcation
Plus, insights on OOCL’s latest earnings and what they reveal about volume vs. rate performance.

Tomorrow, April 7, container freight futures tied to the NYSHEX Freight Index (NYFI) go live on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, the conversation focuses on what that means for the industry and how these new tools fit into freight strategy.
Rich Heath, who leads financial products at NYSHEX, joins to break down how freight futures work, how they connect to index-linked contracts, and how companies can begin thinking about managing freight risk in a more structured way.
This episode covers:
 • What freight futures are and how they differ from physical freight contracts
 • Why hedging is gaining traction now after years of limited adoption
 • How futures can be used alongside existing procurement strategies
 • What a first hedge can look like and how to start small
 • How procurement and finance teams can work together on freight risk
As volatility continues to shape the market, the industry is beginning to adopt new tools designed to operate within it.

Freight markets are reacting to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz but not in the way many expected.
In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline and Lars break down what is actually happening beneath the surface of the rate data.
While spot rates are only moving modestly week over week, the cumulative impact is building, and key signals in the market are starting to shift.
This episode covers:
 • Why rate increases so far have been gradual, not explosive
 • The sharp divergence between 20-foot and 40-foot pricing and what it signals
 • What forward curves are indicating for peak season across major trades
 • How rerouting via Oman and the Red Sea is reshaping capacity
 • The latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and who can still transit
 • Why disruption remains highly regional for containers, but global for energy
Plus, a look at tariffs, IMO developments, and new trade agreements shaping global flows.

What will freight rates look like for the rest of 2026?
In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, the discussion moves beyond current spot rates to what the market is already pricing into the future.
From forward curves on key trades to the unfolding situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the episode explores how fuel costs, demand uncertainty, and capacity dynamics are shaping freight price expectations.
The key question: are current forecasts too conservative, or already balancing competing forces?
Topics covered:
 • Forward price expectations across Asia–US and Asia–Europe trades
 • How much of the expected increase is already explained by fuel surcharges
 • Why rates may face both upward pressure from costs and downward pressure from demand
 • What a “semi-permanent” disruption in Hormuz could mean for freight markets
 • How to think about planning in a market where the range of outcomes is widening