Supply Chain Secrets

This week's Supply Chain Secrets doubles as Caroline Weaver's send off as co-host, and she goes out with the market question everyone's been asking: why have Pacific spot rates gone so volatile? 
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why June and July cargo data show no demand boom on the Pacific, and why the recent spot rate spikes are capacity driven instead
How the Asia-Europe rate cooldown is following a normal seasonal pattern this time, backed by genuine demand growth
Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and new attacks on container vessels in the Black Sea
Why direct port to port service is less commoditized across alliances than most shippers assume
Thank you to Caroline for your energy and insights on the show! 
And, don't worry listeners. The show will go on! 
Rich Heath, NYSHEX's VP of Financial Products, takes over alongside Lars Jensen starting next week. 
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Ocean carrier reliability just hit its lowest point since before the current alliance structure took effect, with typhoon-driven port congestion in Asia dragging Shanghai down to just 21% on-time arrivals in July.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Global vessel reliability at 56% for July, and the 40 percentage point gap separating Gemini's 89.5% from Premier Alliance's sub-50% performance
NYFI's Asia-US sub-lane data, including Northeast Asia's role as a swing capacity market and a fresh split between US East and West Coast rates
Suez Canal normalization now at 19% of Asia-Europe capacity, and what it means for demand growth if that reaches 50%
A reopened split between 20-foot and 40-foot rates on the Trans-Atlantic Westbound lane, plus Q4 bunker and emissions surcharge changes

New restrictions from the Panama Canal Authority are cutting daily transits starting in September, well ahead of the Chinese New Year peak season shippers depend on that route to serve.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why the canal authority is acting early, and what a 34% drop in rain inflow to Lake Gatun means for shippers who haven't built contingency plans
A Transpacific market sending mixed signals: Southeast Asia rates spiking, Northeast Asia to US East Coast rates dropping almost 30% in a week, and a rate spread on Asia-US East Coast now as wide as it was at the summer peak
Updates on the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz standoff with Iran, and the new US-Canada tariff breakdown
Why the Northern Sea Route remains more hype than real capacity, and where FMC Chairman Laura DiBella's net zero framework comments leave the November IMO vote
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Pacific spot rates are flatlining on average, but the spread between the highest and lowest payers just hit its widest point in months, a sign the market has no real conviction on where this goes next. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver break down what's actually driving ocean freight this week.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Asia-USWC/USEC spreads widening sharply while average rates hold flat, and what that phantom GRI risk means for shippers
NOAA's latest El Niño forecast for the Panama Canal and the draft restrictions likely coming this fall
Red Sea normalization update as more carriers shift back to Suez routing
The order book math: why fleet growth may already be outpacing true demand, and what that means for capacity heading into 2027 and 2028
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NYFI held flat for a fourth straight week, and the June CTS data explains why the Transpacific demand story isn't what the headlines suggest.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why NYFI and SCFI track different things by design (SCFI is a forward-looking quote, NYFI reflects cargo already loaded), and how to spot a phantom GRI before you pay for one
June CTS data showing Transpacific demand and capacity both flat year over year, while Asia-Europe, Asia-South America, and Asia-Africa post double-digit growth
Red Sea normalization signals: OOCL's new Bab el-Mandeb service and Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd shifting the AE15 and AE19 Gemini services back to Suez
Panama Canal draft cuts ahead of El Niño, plus low water on the Rhine and Amazon squeezing inland moves
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