Supply Chain Secrets

Ocean freight this week is a study in divergence: Pacific rates are splitting by coast, Asia-Europe spreads are widening, and a new blockade declaration just widened the Middle East risk map. Even Lars's connection from France needed a reroute this week: his audio came through rough enough that part of the episode runs on AI voiceover instead. Turns out signal disruption isn't just a shipping lane problem.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why Northeast Asia is pushing USWC rates up 14.6% while pulling USEC rates down 1.6%, in the same week
The Houthis' newly declared blockade on Saudi Arabia, and why it threatens the last working bypass route around the Strait of Hormuz
Rising bunker costs, a new 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazil, and a US inventory picture that Lars calls "walking on a knife edge"
Low water surcharges now hitting the St. Lawrence Seaway, the Rhine, and the Amazon, all at once
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President Trump says he'll charge a 20% toll on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Lars Jensen ran the numbers, and they don't hold up.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
The math behind why a 20% Hormuz toll could work out to record freight rate highs, and why no shipper would pay it.
Who would even be billed, and why the US has no realistic way to collect if a carrier just refuses.
Seven attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz this week alone, and what "open" actually means when ships are still getting hit.
Asia-USWC rates flatten, but the shipper-to-shipper spread nearly tripled in a month.
Maersk extends its Suez return with two more services despite the Hormuz risk.
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Pacific spot rates are holding flat while futures signal the peak may already be over, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd just made a move that could mark the beginning of a Red Sea normalization after two and a half years of disruption.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why Asia-USWC rates are flatlining around $5,200 while the futures curve still points sharply lower, and what that means for the rest of July
The Gemini alliance's AE15 service switching back to Suez routing and what it signals about carrier confidence in Red Sea stability
Panama Canal draft restrictions tightening through August as El Niño risk grows, and what history says about the ceiling on disruption
Maersk's upward earnings revision and why it says more about Maersk's earlier pessimism than the overall market
USMCA uncertainty and what a US pullback could mean for deeply intertwined North American supply chains
EU shipping emissions data: container vessels down 6.7% per TEU year over year, even as total emissions remain elevated versus 2023 due to Red Sea rerouting
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Transpacific spot rates are skyrocketing while Asia-North Europe tells a completely different story, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most container traffic after a week of missile exchanges between Iran and the US.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why Asia-US West Coast spot rates are approaching East Coast levels and what that historically signals about market instability
What the $1,600 gap between current Pacific spot rates and July futures is telling the market
The latest in the Hormuz crisis, including the attack on the Ever Lovely and what the "evacuation" language from IMO actually means for container shipping
Port connectivity winners and losers: how Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, and Sharjah are absorbing volume while Gulf ports go dark
Tariff uncertainty heading into July 24, when Section 122 tariffs expire with no clear successor
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Asia-North Europe rates are up another $400 week over week, the futures curve points higher still, and the Strait of Hormuz is open, closed, and open again depending on which hour you check. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all of it.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates at $3,563 and climbing, with July futures pointing $740 higher than current levels and August expectations also revised up. Asia-USWC at $4,264, up 6.3% week over week, with futures suggesting the Pacific apex may already be here
Why the spread on Asia-USEC has widened to $2,000 between the 10th and 90th percentile -- and what that means for how you interpret the index relative to your own rates
The Hormuz situation: an MoU, a declaration it was open, a declaration it was closed, vessels doing U-turns, and talks ongoing in Switzerland all within 72 hours
Why CMA-CGM permanently shifting its FAL 3 service back to Suez on the backhaul is about capitalizing on peak season capacity, not just route normalization
A fifth piracy attempt in two weeks in the Gulf of Aden, why ultra-large container ships have a natural defense, and why smaller vessels are at greater risk
Click here to access detailed NYFI PRO charts discussed in this episode
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