Supply Chain Secrets

Asia-Europe rates appear to have found their seasonal floor while security threats to shipping spread across three regions.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:

-Why Lars reads Asia-Europe as bottomed out, and what the widening spread between high and low rates signals about a market turn
-Why the Transpacific is unlikely to see a seasonal decline before Chinese New Year, and how new services like ZIM’s ZX3 tend to follow high rates
-Hormuz land bridge limits, a widening Black Sea conflict, and renewed piracy in the Gulf of Aden
-The LA/LB watchmen strike threat and new consolidation among mid-size carriers

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NYFI adds two new indices this week, Asia-Mediterranean and Asia-US Gulf, as Asia-Med rates post their first increase in some time.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:
Asia-Med’s turn, and whether the Europe trades have found a floor
Red Sea normalization at 60% of Asia-Europe capacity, with the Med well ahead of North Europe, and why “normal” can still include sailings around Africa
Why services returning to Suez free up global capacity without adding weekly capacity on Asia-Europe
An orderbook near 47% of the fleet, 1.3 million TEU ordered by the top 10 carriers in two months, and what it could mean for vessel sizes on the Transpacific
Plus: Gemini slips below MSC on schedule reliability, and a new round of US tariffs on Canadian goods.

Transpacific spreads are tightening as the summer rally flattens, while risk in the Strait of Hormuz climbs.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:
Why the narrowing Asia-USWC spread, now about $1,500 per 40-foot, points to growing certainty on price
How carriers prioritizing China loads squeeze space for Korea and Japan cargo, driving sharp swings on Northeast Asia to USEC
Four container ships hit near Hormuz, one sunk, as Gemini’s new Suez service moves Red Sea routings closer to normal
HMM’s new order lifting its orderbook to 32% of fleet, still one of the smallest among the top 16 carriers
Plus: tariff whiplash, an FMC proposal targeting Spanish imports, and a hacker group’s extortion claims against 34 maritime organizations.

Transpacific rates appear to have peaked, Asia to North Europe keeps sliding toward a floor, and the risk picture across the Middle East is getting harder to plan around.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath cover:
Signs of a Transpacific peak, with USWC easing and USEC flattening, and the steady Asia to North Europe decline since July
August demand data: Asia-Europe down 1.7% year on year while the Transpacific grew 10.8%, and why neither trade fits a simple weak or strong label
Iranian attacks well beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi strikes deep into Saudi Arabia, and what shippers can do when rerouting is out of their control
Africa's import growth, OOCL's Q3 results, Asia to East Coast South America service changes, and El Niño risk at the Panama Canal

Asia to North Europe rates are still falling, Transpacific rates keep climbing, and the gap between the two lanes is at a record high. With the data and the market narrative pointing in different directions, the new NYFI options contracts on Asia to North Europe and Asia to USWC arrive at the right moment.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Rich Heath are joined by Peter Stallion of Clarksons to cover:
Why the port congestion story doesn't fit low blank sailing levels or falling Asia to North Europe rates
The record arbitrage between the two lanes, and a USWC 10 to 90% spread hovering near $2,000 per 40'
How call and put options work, how they differ from futures, and who sells them
Using options and futures in 2027 European tenders, and why going unhedged is the real gamble
Plus: Red Sea normalization, escalating Hormuz attacks, and the stalled Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM deal.