Grain Farmers of Ontario

US and the World

Planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. It is that time of year when the rubber meets the road with regard to all the plans put in place over the last few months. As of May, the 10th 57% of corn was planted in the US and 49% of intended soybean acreage was in the ground. So we’re off to a very good start. However, as every farmer knows there’s lots of risks planting those fields and there’s lots of risk ahead. Markets have been volatile. On Tuesday May the 12th the USDA released their latest WASDE report. The May report is USDA’s first detailed look into crop production for the 2026/2027 crop year.

USDA is predicting new crop corn to be 15.995 billion bushels based on the yield guess of 183 bushels per acre. This was within pre report estimates and if it comes to fruition, it will be the second largest corn crop on record trailing only last year’s 17.02-billion-bushel blockbuster. The planted acreage is set to come in at 95.3 million acres with harvested acreage projected at 87.4 million acres. It really wasn’t a big surprise with regard to these fundamental numbers. The corn ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected to be 1.957 billion bushels. Total corn usage is estimated to be 16.205 billion bushels.

On the soybean side of the equation, USDA estimated numbers of 4.435 billion bushels of soybeans with a trendline yield of 53 bushels per acre and 84.7 million acres. If it comes to fruition, this will be the second largest soybean crop in U.S. history. US domestic soybean stocks are set to come in at 310 million bushels which was on the bottom end of the pre report estimates. The Brazilians are set to produce another 186 MMT crop of soybeans and the Argentinians are set to come in at 48 MMTs. USDA estimated 2026/2027 US wheat production to be 1.561 billion bushels which is a decrease from the 1.921 billion bushels last May. If this production comes to fruition, it will be the lowest wheat production since 1972.

On May 15th corn and soybeans were about the same and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. July 2026 corn futures was at $4.55 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.81 bu. The July 2026 soybean futures was at $11.77 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.70. The July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.35 a bushel. The Minneapolis July 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.85 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $7.05 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of May 15th, 2026, closed at $105.42/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $94.40/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.22/gallon, higher vs the $2.21/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 24th, 2026, was .7272 US, down vs the .7311 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

The Grain Farmers of Ontario’s estimation of planting put corn planting at 52% complete, soybeans are at 16 per cent complete, and spring cereals planting is 62 per cent complete across the province as of Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Weather has been uneven early in the season and especially cold going into mid-May. Producers will be hoping for hot weather for good crop emergence and adequate rainfall to get the crop off to a good start.

Rainfall has been a bit on the light side in some areas of the province as of mid-May. In fact, although some wheat fields look very good some of the wheat fields that got side dressed late because of tough ground conditions are in need of a good rain. So far at least in the deep southwest of Ontario that has not happened. Weather is always a dominant factor with regard to crop progress. So far it is led to slow development, but of course we’re hoping for a quick turnaround.

Ontario corn basis levels have hardly changed from the last Market Trends report. In fact if anything they are a bit lower. Soybeans on the other hand have much higher basis levels which are reflection of the lower Canadian dollar, higher futures prices and the lower soybean supplies in eastern Canada. The Canadian dollar currently at .7272 US continues to add stimulus to Ontario grain prices.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.40 to $2.05 over the July 2026 corn futures on May 15th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.20 to $1.63 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.45 to $4.20 over the July 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.16 to $3.45 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.72. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.66/bu range. On May 15th the US replacement price for corn was $6.74/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

Our grain marketing reality is growing a little bit more mixed. A month ago, one of the main topics of discussion was the Iran war and how that had affected both fertilizer and fuel prices. By extension the grain markets rallied. However, that war has now become more dialed into the trading algorithms and a month-long ceasefire has mitigated some of the effect. Needless to say, oil prices are still elevated and the war could continue to flare up anytime. It is truly a wild card for grain producers this year across the North American corn belt.

That might be the wild card but of course there is always the weather which has a big effect on what’s happening ahead. For instance, by the weekend of May 16th about 70% of the US corn crop could be planted as well as 2/3 of the soybean crop. Things have turned bearish and that’s partly because of the disappointment in Beijing and partly because of the great crop planting progress and the benign weather. It is leaning into a bearish market environment.

If the weather decides to play nice, we know the rest of the story. We will have big crops and probably rising ending stocks. However, on the other hand if there is a hiccup involved with regard to crop weather in supply, we will likely see a mitigating effect on the price dropping. It is shaping up to be a super El Nino year. Looking back at the past super El Nino years, 2015, 1997 and 2023, all had record corn yields.

Wheat is at an interesting point. The Chicago wheat contract which is especially relative to producers in Ontario has been dragged up by the HRW wheat price rally. This is happened because of the dry weather in the US southern plains. It is key because the United States will be at a low ebb for HRW for another year. This should support to some extent the Chicago wheat market. As always, with wheat grown everywhere, cheaper foreign wheat always has the potential to show up in US ports.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

The US old crop corn ending stocks sitting at 2.1 billion bushels is putting a drag on the corn price. However, it is much higher than it was a year ago and has constantly threatened to go through $5 US. However, it has not done that and backed off currently at $4.81 a bushel. New crop ending stocks at 1.96 billion bushels are telling us there’s not a lot of concern. Old crop prices reflect this. We’ll have to see what the weather does this summer.

The December contract breaking through $5 is a tough ask. Seasonality is always part of that and traditionally that has been mid-June for the highest new crop prices. However, over the past five years the seasonality seems to have changed because the best new crop prices being in the first part of May. That possibly might have happened this year. Weather risk and renewed war risk will likely be two factors to break that $5 barrier.

The July 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 7.25 cents lower than the September 2026 contract a bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 corn futures contract is at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans have been on call with regard to any news coming out of China. At this point there hasn’t been specific numbers mentioned with regard to any type of renewed Chinese demand coming out of the presidential meeting in Beijing. Positive news out of that meeting might have taken the nearby month into the $12.00 futures territory. As it is now, there is really no shortage of soybeans in the United States or in the world at any level.

Soybean prices fell after the summit with funds taking profits from the lack of news. However, there still could be increased Chinese buying but it might be more likely that it comes later in the season, when soybeans could be cheaper. Cheap always is the great elixir for Chinese soybean buying.

The July 2026 soybean contract is currently priced .25 cents above the August contract considered bullish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 28th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat went up the limit in one trading session of the week ending May 16th. In the May USDA report all wheat production was down to 1.561 billion bushels, and this was 170 million bushels below trade estimates. The HRW wheat was estimated at 515 million bushels which is nearly 290 million bushels below last year. So, for whatever reason, we went up the limit but keep in mind most US wheat is still priced out of global markets. At the moment it’s a US phenomenon seeing this wheat price higher, at a certain point it will likely disappear. Needless to say, it does represent opportunity to price wheat.

The Ontario wheat crop could sure use a rain in some areas, but generally looks good. Quality issues can always be a problem when it comes to wheat but drier than normal usually works well. Prices are also a dollar plus higher this year compared to what was received last harvest season in 2025. The Canadian dollar certainly helps with that. Producers will be hoping as the weather grows warmer wheat finds its sweet spot to bring in bumper yields.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar continues to flutter around the 72 cent level US. Over the last several weeks it is gyrated between 73 cents and 71 cents US bouncing in an inverse fashion to where the US dollar goes. At a certain point there is going to be a breakout to the upside and when it does it will be a problem for Ontario cash grain prices. As it is, stronger USD economic data and trade uncertainty with Canada hasn’t been good for the loonie. $0.80 US still seems like a long way off, thankfully for Ontario grain prices.

The geopolitical situation continues to be a bit of a hot mess, but a hot mess that the grain trading algorithms have readily devoured. Whether it is Russia and Ukraine or Iran and the United States or Israel and Lebanon grain algorithms have adjusted. However, oil prices are still elevated which help grain prices generally. In the bearish fundamental environment for grain, which we are in now these geopolitical concerns can add a lot of spark to the market at unusual times.

Keep in mind that we are in a time frame of grain seasonality we’re often times you can capture new crop marketing opportunities. It is also true that you can sell grain throughout the year successfully especially if you have market orders set. Capturing those market opportunities can be elusive especially in markets like these affected by geopolitical events beyond the grain fundamentals.

Despite that, we move on. Here in Ontario, we have the challenge once again this spring of getting the crop in the ground. That can always certainly be a challenge, but it’s also challenged to market our crops in a profitable manner and capture those marketing opportunities when they come along. Grain continues to move out into the export market to compete with cheaper options. At the same time there are value added opportunities here at home built up by our industry overtime. Daily market intelligence remains key. Risk management never grows old. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – May & June 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World

It is that time of year again when planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. As always, there are variations on this theme depending on the weather. Some producers are going well, some are delayed by rain, and some haven’t even started yet. However, as we look into 2026, we have a world awash in grain but at the same time deeply troubled by geopolitical events in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Our grain price environment equation is being buffeted every which way. On April 9th the USDA came out with their latest WASDE report.

There were few changes coming from the USDA on April 9th. US corn production for 2025/26 Is still pegged at a record 17.02 billion bushels with a yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. Corn ethanol usage came in at 5.6 billion bushels, feed and residual usage came in at 6.2 billion bushels and food seed and residual use and industrial use was projected at 6.97 billion bushels. This year US farmers surveyed came up with the figure of 95.3 million acres of corn which is down 3% from a year ago. Soybeans on the other hand are projected to be 84.7 million acres which is up 4% from last year. Winter wheat acreage is the lowest since 1919.

On the soybean side of the equation old crop ending stocks are still set at 350 million bushels. USDA did trim its export estimate by 35 million bushels to 1.54 billion bushels. Total usage is set at 4.262 billion bushels. There was a lowering a world ending stocks reflecting some higher crushed estimates. Production in Brazil remains at 180 MMT and 48 MMT in Argentina. On the global side of things, wheat ending stocks actually increased slightly from the March estimate.

On April 24th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.55 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.84 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $11.78 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.55. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.08 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.76 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $7.09 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of April 24th, 2026, closed at $94.40/barrel much lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $111.54/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.21/gallon, down vs the $2.25/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 24th, 2026, was .7311 US, up vs the .7185 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

Wet weather has been a characteristic in the early spring throughout Ontario limiting field activity. However, there has been widespread side dressing nitrogen on the wheat with some acres left behind as of Saturday April 25th because of rain showers inundating Ontario. Producers will be looking for dry weather both to get this side dressing done as well as commence corn planting.

Statistics Canada is estimating Ontario farmers will grow 2.316 million acres of corn this year and 2.894 million acres of soybeans. In Quebec we’re looking at 825 thousand acres of corn and a million acres of soybeans. Intuitively, the Ontario corn number doesn’t seem quite right especially with the higher fertilizer and fuel costs this spring. However, much of the corn acreage in the province will depend on spring weather. At this early date there is still wide opportunity to garner big corn acres the spring.

The erosion in the Canadian dollar of a couple cents since the last Market Trends report is partly responsible for the lower soybean basis in Ontario. However, keep in mind that the short crop in eastern Ontario last year is resulting in a deficit of soybeans to export. This has led to basis strength especially a few weeks ago. At the same time there has been US corn imported into Quebec to satisfy some local requirements. It is all a function of price and as local prices approach the US replacement price, there will be corn imports.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.45 to $2.15 over the May 2026 corn futures on April 24th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.25 to $1.60 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.91 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.09 to $3.40 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.43. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.36/bu range. On April 24th the US replacement price for corn was $6.68/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

In many ways, it’s a new day. For some producers they may have old crop left in the bin but for others it is long in the rear view mirror. What we face as we go into planting our crops this year is risk that we’ve become accustomed to overtime. There are the fundamentals of grain which refers to the supply and demand but of course there is also the weather which we deal with all the time. As we look into 2026 weather concerns will continually dominate where we go. Outlier years like 2012 and 1988 will happen again. However, for the most part they are rare. Needless to say, we will be in a continual weather market until the crop is made.

Another important point to realize as we move ahead is that grain fundamentals don’t seem to matter as much as they used to. For instance, right now the world is awash in grain especially coming off good crops from last year. At the same time futures prices have moved higher partly because of geopolitical events and partly because of things unknown. In many ways there is no connection to previous days no classic technical or fundamental analysis to apply. What we’re finding is that trading algorithms are dialed in to social media posts especially at the highest level of the American government and over the last several weeks this has made market prices go higher. Also too, with war in Iran much uncertainty has reigned and the trading algorithms have responded positively.

It is always hard to know what will come next especially in this market environment. We know that the potential for another big crop in the United States followed by another big crop in South America is more or less likely. Keep in mind that also will be dialed into the grain trading algorithms. In fact, you might make an argument cash basis may become even more important depending on where you farm. At the end of the day, it is our cash prices which is the litmus test for our market decisions.

The war in Iran continues and its effect on our agricultural markets will surely continue. Keep in mind that grain analysts are not military analysts, which creates a lot of noise within the marketplace. As it is, the energy market will continually be a place for big volatility. Soybean oil will be affected as well as our corn markets. We cannot ignore the daily headlines out of Iran. It will always be an influence until things settle down

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

Corn futures prices lost about $0.40 from their March highs and are currently working halfway back to those March levels. Whether they get there or not is another point of contention. For instance, at the present time we are planting new crop corn and you would think it would take a lot of weather delays and new news to have an effect on our old corn prices as we move forward.

For new crop corn there has always been the discussion since the start of the war in Iran about how higher fuel and fertilizer prices might affect US acreage this spring. That debate is still ongoing, but it is probably more likely that weather will affect the corn acres vwesus the fuel and fertilizer debate. Keep in mind that earlier the USDA had forecast 95.3 million acres of corn to be planted this spring.

The July 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 5.25 cents lower than the September 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 corn futures contract is at the 18th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans usually have a lot to say, but not so much for the moment. We have been in a trading range of about $0.25 up and down since the big drop on March the 12th. Keep in mind the Chinese have not been back to buy soybeans even though there is a US China summit supposed to be taking place in May. US export demand has been pretty nonexistent within this vacuum. We also know there are likely be more soybeans planted this year in the United States.

It is no secret that at the present time South America and Brazil in particular owns the soybean market. They’ve had another record crop over 180 MMT and this will continue to permeate within soybean prices for the near future. As we move ahead, there would have to be another explosion in oil prices or some type of weather calamity in the United States to make this soybean price get much higher.

The July 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 6.75 cents above the August contract considered bullish for old crop soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The July 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 28th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat has been a bit of a bright spot in the agricultural commodity market, something that doesn’t usually happen. Remember, wheat is almost everywhere in abundance, but it is spring in the southern US plains where it is dry. This with reduced acres has put a bit of kick in wheat’s step. However, keep in mind the wheat prices are lower on the global stage versus in the US. Remarkably, even the US has imported some wheat this year based on that fact. All of this might mean that we are looking at a major marketing opportunity for wheat at the present time.

It may be that time in Ontario as well. Wheat prices now are approximately a dollar plus higher than they were last harvest in July of 2025. Wheat producers might argue it’s still not enough, but plus $7.50 wheat has not been here for at least a couple years. Quality issues are always a concern when it comes to wheat, but we are still a long ways from that. For many producers especially on heavy soils, side dressing nitrogen is still the main priority as we head into May.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar is up about a cent in half from three weeks ago which is always a dampening effect for Ontario cash grain prices. These times are tumultuous with the war going on in Iran and recently the American dollar has been sliding which usually results in the Canadian dollar gaining in value. We have also had some Canadian economic data that was pretty good combined with the spectre of interest rate cuts being less likely and oil prices being supportive. Having our Canadian loonie flutter around the 73-cent mark as always good for Ontario cash grain prices. As it is, there is still trouble in the Strait of Hormoz and producers will need to keep abreast of these things especially with regard to how it affects the US and Canadian dollar.

When you combine the geopolitical effects, we see now with the oncoming growing season there is a world of risk ahead for grain prices. Keep in mind that ignoring the war for a minute we’re going into a time where seasonality with grain pricing tells us we may see contracting opportunities quite near. In fact, we have already seen some based on the lower prices we had last season. It will be important during this time to keep market orders current in pricing your grain.

As stated, earlier USDA has forecast 95.3 million acres of corn and 84.7 million acres of soybeans this year. That’s happening right now and will surely be affected by weather and who knows what else. Once again, there seemingly will be grain everywhere following a consistently normal script for grain prices. However, we all know as producers it is a long way till payday. There is a world of risk ahead including USDA reports which may define price direction for the near future.

Needless to say, the planting season does represent a bit of a new day for grain pricing. Everything seems new. A new fundamental will emerge. A new story will be told. The algorithms need more distraction. Within this mix, it’s not lost on farmers that risk management doesn’t grow old. Daily market intelligence will remain key. There will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead.
The post Market Trends Report – April & May 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World

The calendar date has changed and with that so has the psychology. Where we have been musing about old crop stocks for several weeks and months now, April 2026 will be the month where planters will really start to roll both in corn and soybeans. The March 31st USDA Prospective plantings report always serves as a benchmark for the new crop year ahead of us. Sometimes, this report can see explosive market action as the algorithms have it dialed in. With war raging it is an uneven time in markets. The March 31st report set this up for what we may be looking at in crop acreage this year.

US producers surveyed across the United States will be planting less corn and more soybeans in 2026. The US corn acreage came in at 95.3 million acres which is down 3% from last year. On the soybean side of the ledger US soybean producers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026 which is up 4% from last year. The winter wheat acreage for 2026 is estimated to be 43.8 million acres down 3% from 2025 and the lowest number since 1919. Winter wheat acreage planted area was set at 32.4 million acres which is down 2% from last year.

The acreage numbers are very similar to a year ago. Keep in mind that that could change greatly over the year ahead.

Case in point is if you look over the last 20 years the average corn change between March intentions and final plantings is 1.634 million acres with soybeans at 1.868 million acres. The biggest swings during this have been 6.5 million acres for corn and 8.5 million acres for soybeans. So, despite the USDA report on March 31st being important there are always variations on the theme as we move ahead.

On April 3rd corn, soybeans and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.52 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.81 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $11.63 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.54. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.98 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.46 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.76 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of April 2nd, 2026, closed at $111.54/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $98.71/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.25/gallon, up vs the $2.16/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 2nd, 2026, was .7185 US, down vs the .7291 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

In Ontario, it’s that time of year when everybody’s getting ready to plant. However, there have been hints of spring with a few warm days but so far is not wide open. Side dressing of nitrogen on wheat has barely started early in April with uneven weather. Needless to say, the wheat crop looks good although are there are a few poor fields from winter kill in specific areas.

Basis levels are very close to the same or slightly higher than they were since the last Market Trends report. Eastern Ontario corn basis which has been significantly higher than southwestern Ontario has eroded slightly. This likely will continue to be volatile throughout 2026 because of the short crop in this area last year. The soybean basis is largely affected by the volatility in the Canadian dollar and with it fluttering in the $0.71 range soybean basis has been strong.

Basis is always a reflection of supply and demand within your local area, however, as usual Canadian basis levels reflect greatly the value of the Canadian dollar. This is especially true for soybeans and wheat. It has been accentuated lately by the big moves in futures values caused by the war in Iran. If this continues, we should expect continuing volatility on basis levels.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.45 to $2.15 over the May 2026 corn futures on April 2nd across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.25 to $1.69 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.30 to $4.24 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.20 to $3.55 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.43. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.40/bu range. On March 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.76/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

It’s been all about the war for the last two weeks but at a certain point you become numb to the pain. In other words, even the markets get the war dialed in. However, keep in mind that this price volatility isn’t going to go away, and it has been significant. For instance, after the January USDA report corn went down $0.50 a bushel. The rally in May futures did regain all of that and more before trailing off. Who would have expected that after the January limit down move. As it is, with war dialed in to the algorithms we’ve seen a 22-month high in both corn and soybeans.

Of course, the question is what happens now? With war raging in the Middle East affecting the price of oil it is also hard to say. However, prices are higher now than we’ve become accustomed to over the last 18 to 24 months. Closing your eyes for a minute and imagine a trading world without the war and we would likely see a far different picture. Think about seasonality, think about the spring weather, and think about “hot and dry” that may come this summer. At this point in early April, we are sitting better than we expected, almost a gift on the price front. US farmers produced 17.02 billion bushels of corn last year. Will that happen again and if it does will prices stay where they are?

Keep in mind it’s usually around the middle of June going into the July 4th weekend new crop corn reaches its high point. Soybeans are made in August which likely will be the same this year. However, there are always variations on the theme, and we’ll need to manage that risk looking ahead into a 2026 growing season.

Crude oil is always a default when it comes to the prices of our agricultural commodities. It is always part of the Market Trends report but in 2026 it is really changing the game. We have seen about a doubling in price of crude oil in the last 30 days with the resulting increase in the price of gasoline, diesel fuel and other distillates. Who knows if it’s over and who knows if $200 oil is possible. It’s a war thing, but it is reality. Our grain prices to some extent are taking a lead from oil but of course they are much more reluctant than oil probably will be

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

One of the bigger questions this spring is how much corn will be shifted into soybeans because of higher fertilizer prices. Estimates vary but about 75% of fertilizer has already been put down for corn in the United States mitigating much of that move. However, we never know and for the remaining acres it definitely could shift out of corn. Keep in mind, the American farmer loves growing corn and even with higher fertilizer prices it’s hard to see new crop acreage going down much further than what the USDA estimated.

Simply put, we are well supplied with corn in the United States. On March 1st, USDA put quarterly stocks at 9.024 billion bushels. That was slightly lower than the trade expected. Keep in mind that demand for this corn has been off the chart this year and price has been partly accentuated since the drop off in January by the war going on in the Middle East.

The May 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 11.75 cents lower than the July 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2026 corn futures contract is at the 18th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

The soybean rally started back in late January possibly to the notion that the market wanted to buy soybean acres. However, we know after that that the forces of the world took over with war starting to rage in Iran. The funds have also piled on hoping to ride the wave up. This is happening despite big supplies coming out of South America. Sometimes, things just don’t make sense.

Earlier we had been looking at the Trump meeting with President Xi of China as the flash point for American soybean buying. However, that meeting was postponed with a result in the decrease in the price of soybeans. Keep in mind that meeting is now rescheduled for May and market algorithms will be dialed into renewed buying from China for American soybeans. It’s like betting on how noisy can a firecracker pop. Trading algorithms pay attention to these news items and as we get closer to the meeting in May, so the prices will be sensitive to it.

The May 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 16 cents below the July contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 26th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat prices are higher than they’ve usually been, which should set off celebrations in the wheat complex. However, we know that some of this is due to the dryness in the American southwest plains, but also due to some of these prices tied to the increasing price of oil. Keep in mind that we’re coming off 5-year lows at the end of 2025. At the same time USDA prospective plantings report tells us that we have the least wheat acres since 1919. At a certain point you would hope it would break out, but in the wheat market that’s like waiting for Godet.

In Ontario, wheat prices are much higher than they were a year ago and although producers would like to see them surely go higher, lots of market orders might have hit lately. We are approximately $1.50 a bushel higher than we were last summer when the wheat was taken off the field. A Canadian dollar at .7185 US certainly helps. As per usual, in a war situation all bets are off, but we are in a better situation than we were a year ago.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar is telling a story even though it is hard to know what it is. From March 9th to April 3rd, 2026, the Canadian dollar dropped from almost 74 cents US to .7185 cents US. This was significantly positive for Ontario cash grains prices and will continue to be if the Canadian dollar continues to break. As always, the value of the Canadian dollar moves in an inverse fashion to the US dollar. However, there is always a variation on the theme, this time with war being part of it. The Canadian dollar at the 71 US dollar level likely presents good opportunities for cash grain pricing.

We know that these are unique times in the grain market. The hot war of the last few weeks has made it that way. Part of the reason for this are the funds which form non-commercial demand have piled into corn and soybeans. In fact, we have the largest net long position in corn and soybeans in the funds since May of 2026. In fact, you might argue that the funds are banking on more war, energy gains and China picking up in buying US soybeans. When they are long, farmers so to speak are riding the wave, when they go short, often times we end up in the drink. Here we are in April of 2026.

Keep in mind March 1st corn stocks were up 11% at 9.02 billion bushels the largest on record. Soybean stocks were at 2.01 billion bushels up 10% and the largest in ten years. Wheat stocks were the largest in five years. Simply put these onerous grain stocks are punching way below their weight. Grain prices spurred by oil and war have spawned an alternative fundamental universe, a least for the time being.

We move ahead with caution, but with market orders in the mix. War markets make everything volatile and violent. At the same time many of us will have started planting by the next time Market Trends in published. As the weeks move on so will the war risk, but it will be mixed with the inherit production risks we always face. The challenge for Ontario farmers will be to manage that risk. As always, daily market intelligence will remain key. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report April 5, 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World

In mid-March it is that time of year when planters are either rolling in the southern regions of the American corn belt or are being adjusted for the planting season that is almost upon us. It has been an eventful winter to say the least with prices advancing especially in the last few weeks with war breaking out in the Middle East between the United States, Israel, and Iran. War markets are never easy to explain, always filled with uncertainty. It will make it challenging as all of our planters get ready to roll. Amid all of this upset, the USDA released their latest WASDE report on March 10th.

The March USDA report was a bit of status quo compared to reports of the past. There were no domestic changes for corn soybeans and wheat but a few changes globally. US corn production is still pegged at 17.02 billion bushels with the yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. This is a huge number which should remain a benchmark for all producers this year. Total domestic use for US corn is still pegged at 13.17 billion bushels with ending stocks coming in at 2.127 billion bushels. USDA increased Brazil’s corn production by 1 MMT to 132 MMTs. Argentinian Production was decreased by the same amount down to 30.7 MMTs.

These were all the same from the February report, but the US crush was increased slightly to 2.575 billion bushels. The total soybean usage was projected at 4.262 billion bushels reflecting the slight increase in the soybean crush. Soybean ending stocks are still projected to come in at 350 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production was kept the same at 180 MMTS but Argentinian soybean production was actually decreased slightly down to 48 MMTs. US domestic wheat stocks were unchanged from 931 million bushels. Globally, wheat stocks were down slightly from the February report.

On March 14th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.67 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.91 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $12.25 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.61. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.13 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.45 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.75 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of March 13th closed at $98.71/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.89/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.16/gallon, up vs the $2.03/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on March 13th, 2026, was .7291 US, down vs the .7345 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

Winter is still holding on in Ontario although there was a bit of a thaw in early March where much of the snow disappeared. On the weekend of March 14th some areas of Ontario were hit again with heavy snow. The winter wheat that has emerged from the snow looks quite good at this time. Producers will be hoping for good weather ahead.

Basis levels for grains have increased slightly over the last 30 days partly related to the Canadian dollar still under $0.73 and or the appreciation in grain futures value. There is not as much grain in Ontario bins as there usually is especially in eastern Ontario and basis does reflect this.

Basis levels in Ontario are also fluid and will probably continue to be throughout 2026 until harvest time. Yes, we still have a lot of empty space in eastern Ontario because of the drought last year. We will have to see how that changes depending on the crop develops this summer. On top of that we always have the movement of the Canadian dollar which will affect basis levels to producers. All of this is a moving target and something that producers always have to have their eye on.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $2.28 over the May 2026 corn futures on March 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.60 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.25 to $4.04 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.04 to $3.34 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.56. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.40/bu range. On March 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.89/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

Forget about what you been thinking, it’s all about the war now. About four years ago we saw what the Ukraine and Russia war did to the commodity market with wheat exploding higher. However, it was unexpected to some extent when the Americans and Israelis attacked Iran about 12 days ago and with that it upset the grain market apple cart. Funds who had been net short the market suddenly were exiting their positions. Also too, the price of oil exploded and there was spillover effect in grains. It simply is a new world in 2026.

Keep in mind it is so difficult to know where we’re going. Much of it will depend on how long it lasts but is likely to last long. The oil market was languishing in the $50s and $60s but now pushed up toward $120.00 briefly on the futures market. The Strait of Hormuz have been blocked which is transit to about 20% of the world’s oil. In many ways this is a Black Swan we didn’t see coming. For a world that is full of grain seemingly only a few weeks ago now there is a completely different planning horizon.

Prices have risen substantially over the last month and especially in the last two weeks. This is happening despite bearish fundamentals that have kept the lid on grain prices for quite some time. It will also probably raise the specter of extreme volatility as we could be facing a world calamity not seen in quite a few years.

The Brazil harvest in soybeans is coming to a completion and it is record setting once again. As these soybeans are being harvested, planters are in the fields with the second crop of corn for Brazil. This means that there will not only be the war risk, but we are also in a weather market watching how much moisture these new corn plants will be provided. There is a world of risk out there.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

With the war on going, it is no secret that prices are going higher for both fuel and fertilizer. With corn a bigger user of fertilizer than soybeans it would seem that the funds are remaining a little bit more neutral on the corn acres that could be planted this spring. We will find that out in the March 31st USDA report.

In the meantime, to some extent corn will follow the price of oil and the funds are setting up to go long depending on the immediate future. At the present time they don’t have a big, long position, but this could certainly change and when it changes to could change in a big way. However, the state of acres for 2026 is still in flux. Earlier the USDA had pitched 94 million acres of corn in their outlook conference.

The May 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 11.25 cents lower than the July 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2026 corn futures contract is at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

The soybean market has been fairly effusive even before the war started. It also is sensitive to the social media posts coming out of the White House. Earlier, the American president had said that he hoped China would come in and buy an extra 8 MMTs of soybeans in the immediate future. Since then, there hasn’t been any American beans sold and Brazilian beans are still a dollar a bushel below American values.

There is a meeting scheduled in Beijing between President Trump and President Xi at the end of March and early April. It’s hard to know now exactly what will come from this meeting especially with the war going on. However, it has not been beyond the realm of possibility that new soybean buying announcements would come from this meeting. However, the new price volatility caused by the war may eat that narrative alive. Earlier the USDA had mused about 85 million soybean acres for this year in the United States. That number will be refreshed on March 31st, and it certainly also will be enhanced by any announcement coming from the potential meeting of the leaders in Beijing.

The May 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 12.5 cents below the July contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 33rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

There is wheat everywhere but keep in mind that this is war and wheat prices are up about a dollar a bushel since the end of January. With the war seemingly chasing out the market bears, it is likely that wheat prices will be a bit more sensitive to weather concerns going forward such as dryness in many of the worlds production areas where wheat is coming out of dormancy. It’s also true that wheat might just be explosive based on a volatile nature of war in the Strait of Hormuz. It’s hard to imagine wheat prices going back down in this environment but that spectre also exists.

In Ontario it is an important time coming up for wheat about to break dormancy. Fields in the deep southwest of the province are already very green and nitrogen application will likely take place very soon for the early birds. According to Agricorp there are 1,046,568 wheat acres this year in Ontario. Currently prices are about a dollar higher than they were last year for wheat off the combine in July of 2026.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar continues to flutter around the 73 cent US level. The war has actually caused an increase in the value of the American dollar which is always negative for the Canadian dollar. This has continually added stimulus to Ontario gain crash prices. Keep in mind there is a war going on none and none of this is stable and as producers we must watch our currency fluctuations to capture good basis levels especially on soybeans.

It’s important to keep in mind then when it comes to grain marketing we’re still on the long road. Yes, we should expect extreme gyrations based on the geopolitics of the day. For instance, we all know that the price of oil is in the crosshairs. If it continues to go up possibly over $125.00 a barrel you could see the funds take their money and get it into grains. Keep in mind the non-commercial demand which is commonly referred to as funds will have no loyalty during this difficult time of war.

Of course, as always nobody knows what is about to happen. For new crop pricing surely there have been some market orders hit already as December corn was headed toward $5 and beans were headed toward $12.00. We also have the tremendous costs involved this year of higher fertilizer and higher fuel prices which seems to be getting worse after already being high. Much will depend on geopolitical events in the war, and much will depend on the price of oil and how much a jilted global economy becomes. Market orders can be one of the best ways to capture these price opportunities.

It is a long road to payday for Ontario grain producers. It might be argued that the latest geopolitical event with the problems in the Middle East is an opportunity and a gift along the marketing highway. This has happened despite grain fundamentals which are onerous suggesting price goes the other way. We need to set up for success. It is a difficult time for sure based on the war. Keep in mind risk management is a continual process and there will be many marketing opportunities ahead. Daily market intelligence will remain key.

The post Market Trends Report – March & April 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World

Winter is still with us but if you look really hard you might see signs of spring. It is the time of year which can be quiet on farms across the greater North American corn belt. However, as the days go by their surely will be more warmth coming over the land with visions of planters heading out into the field. At the same time in South America, harvest and planting are in full swing. That is creating all kinds of variables for market action. Then there is the USDA which chimed in with their latest WASDE report on February the 10th.

As reports go the February report is often quiet because it’s sandwiched between the bigger January reports and the later Prospective Planting report in late March. This USDA report did not veer from that script. In the report US corn ending stocks were reduced 100 million bushels but they’re still the largest in seven years. Also too, world stocks outside of the US and China are still tight and there were no changes to South American corn estimates. Corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels up to 3.3 billion bushels which is a record for corn exports. Corn exports are sitting at 2.127 billion bushels.

On the soybean side of the ledger US balance sheet remain unchanged from January. There was an increase in production in Brazil which had been widely expected. Brazil soybean production is now expected to be 180 MMTs which is up to 2 MMTs from last month. Simply put, it was a quiet report for soybeans. US soybean ending stocks remained at 350 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks or increased 5 million bushels from last month currently sitting at 931 million bushels.

On February 13th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.31 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.64 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $11.33 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.13. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.71 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.14 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of February 13th closed at $62.89/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $59.44/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.03/gallon, up vs the $1.97/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on February 13th, 2026, was .7345 US, up vs the .7188 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

In Ontario it has been an icy cold winter leading up to February the 14th. Parts of Ontario in the snow belt north and West of London as well as toward Barrie have an inundated with snow most of the winter and relief would be welcome. Hopefully this created an environment where winter wheat could survive underneath all the snow. Producers will be looking for some respite as we go into March to facilitate grain movement and production plans for 2026. In the meantime, Agricorp released final figures on last year’s crop putting Ontario corn at 191 bushels per acre and soybeans at 46 bushels per acre.

Ontario basis levels have hardly changed for grains over the last 30 days since the last Market Trends report. In fact, there’s been a slight improvement in some parts of Ontario with eastern Ontario showing historical advantage on the corn basis. Very surely some of this is because of the terrible yields that were experienced in parts of eastern Ontario last year. As we move ahead it’s pretty clear in this part of Ontario and into Quebec that they will need corn to satisfy their needs. The Canadian dollar remains a significant stimulus to cash grain prices.

This has happened even though the Canadian dollar did gain almost $0.02 over the last 30 days. Part of the issue has to do with the American dollar sinking and inversely the Canadian dollar gaining within that paradigm. This will likely continue because the American dollar is seeing pressure it is not seen before partly resulting from some of the political moves being made in the United States. For instance, the American President recently commented that he thought it was a good thing that the US dollar was going down. Foreign exchange markets are more complicated than that but their trade algorithms feed on those comments too. As we move ahead Ontario grain producers should be focused on the value of the Canadian dollar as always but also keep abreast of what’s happening with the US dollar. The two are highly inversely interrelated.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.15 over the March 2026 corn futures on Feb 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.47 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.69 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.90 to $3.06 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.02. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.72 bu. range. On February 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.28/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

We are at somewhat of a standstill in grain prices. Or is this the start of something new even to the point of kidding ourselves for a bit thinking it might be the start of a bull market. All three grains have shown a little bit of resilience in the last 10 days meaning something might be up. That might be China coming in and buying US corn and even more soybeans and it may not be. However, corn prices have recovered from the downdraft from the January USDA report and soybeans have moved much higher.

Geopolitics is always a factor when it comes to grain prices and China is usually part of that equation. In fact, you might say it’s always old news. Last year they didn’t buy American soybeans until there was some type of dialogue with the American President. This year there seems to be more optimism by the Americans that the Chinese might come around. Part of that is based on their better relationship and the specter that President Trump will be visiting China in April. In many ways this is key. You’ve got to believe in the run up to that meeting there will be social media posts from the President about selling more soybeans and corn to China. Our trading algorithms feed on that phenomena. The only way to capture market opportunities from this is to have standing market orders ready.

A weather market it continues to be if you consider South American production. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics recently reported that the Safrinha corn planting had reached 46% by mid-February. This is a touch behind where it usually is. At the same time keep in mind that on the Chinese Dalian corn futures exchange prices have been rising since last October. Corn is not quite like wheat; it is grown mostly in the United States but even still producers should keep an eye on market information about the Safrinha crop. Traders in China are looking at that too.

As we move into March there will certainly be a shift for some producers from old crop to new crop. Keep in mind that every day of the year is an opportunity to buy and sell grain. 2025 did not offer a very long period of profitable grain pricing opportunities. Who knew we would see some of our largest price increases during harvest time? As we move ahead the March Prospective Planting report looms as a major market mover. However, in the relatively bearish environment which we find ourselves in a big change in acres might not be significant to market action until we actually see what gets planted in late June and July.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

As we all know demand for US corn continues to be record setting. This is a very good thing considering that we had 17.02 billion bushels last year. Add a certain point there will be a small tussle for acres between corn and soybeans. Will corn acres be about 95 million this year compared to 99 last year? If they are that is reduction of 4 million acres of corn a fairly major move in the market environment we are in now.

We will see if that happens and of course there will be estimates released in late February on the number of acres, but the big prediction will be coming at end of March USDA Prospective Plantings report. Any variation on the script like China buying US corn because there’s has quality concerns will certainly weigh on prices. Simply put, there is so much risk for price as we look ahead toward blowing off the dust on those corn planters.

The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 10.5 cents lower than the May 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 11th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

There is a lot going on in soybeans, possibly increased China buying, a resilient soybean oil market not only with exports abroad but also increased domestic consumption within the United States and possible quality issues in Brazil. For instance, all of these factors are relevant, but the earlier harvested soybeans in the northern part of Mato Grosso have been affected by very rainy weather. Needless to say, with the USDA predicting 180 MMTs of soybeans being produced in Brazil surely it is a minor factor.

Brazil continues to be the titan of soybean production and harvest is continuing there at this time. Keep in mind that Brazil has had 19 straight season of production expansion and 75% of their exports go to China. Also keep in mind that Chinese demand growth for soybeans has been in concert with this production increase in Brazil. There is really no sign of this changing other than the fact you have to ask yourself the question can both China and Brazil continue to boost capacity on demand in production respectively.

The March 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 15.25 cents below the May contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 22nd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

There are strong wheat crops almost everywhere. As always, these crops are ready to fill supply gaps. There is also rain in the American southwest plains which will help the wheat crop. That’s a partial list of bearish factors with wheat so why is the price been going up recently? Some might argue the law of averages but there’s been some movement up in wheat based on the other commodities. However, it is a bearish environment. Funds have been short wheat since 2022. Breaking out of that might have to be led by soybeans or corn prices catching fire in the next few weeks.

In Ontario old crop wheat prices shot up above $7.00 in the last few weeks helping some producers who were tempted to store wheat from last summer. This reflected the increases in futures prices as well as the Canadian dollar still being relatively low in the $0.73 US range. With snow still inundating most of the Ontario wheat crop it is always difficult to know how and when to contract new crop wheat. Is it alive or is it not? As the snow recedes, we should get a better answer.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar has gained about two cents since the last Market Trends report. It is always hard to tell why but the American dollar has been dropping significantly starting about a month ago but has recently been rising getting within three points of its value on the US dollar index where it was in January. Usually, a 2 cent rise in the Canadian dollar means that basis values go down for Ontario producers. It is not as acute this time around but will likely be next time. Still, the Canadian dollar at $0.73 US will always be good for Ontario cash grain prices.

As now it stands Ontario farmers need to continue to watch the markets and keep an eye on South America. There is still time for something to change in the big crop that’s coming off there. Also keep in mind that we will have another March WASDE report coming up as well as the big Prospective Plantings report at the end of the month. Then there are the Black Swans, those market events that happen which nobody sees coming. You tell me when they will happen.

The challenge for Ontario producers is to balance all of these market factors. It is difficult, but the profession we chose means risk is almost part of our lifeblood. Managing that risk is a continuing experiment for all of us. Markets will continue to be fluid but so will be our ability to price our grain. Each trading session is an opportunity for us. Daily market intelligence will be key. There will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – February & March 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.