"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

• E138: Palantir CEO Alex Karp & Rep. Ritchie Torres on Innovation & The West | Hill and Valley Forum 2024

  Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies, and Congressman Richie Torres discuss higher education, Palantir's fearless culture, and the importance of contrarianism in driving innovation at the 2024 Hill and Valley Forum. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess    — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:  🎙️‪The Hill & Valley The Hill & Valley podcast gives you an insider's look into tech and government, hearing from founders and operators of generational tech companies, elected representatives and policymakers, and more.  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi  Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley/id1692653857 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: The Hill & Valley Forum: https://www.thehillandvalleyforum.com/  The Hill & Valley Forum 2025 Agenda: https://x.com/zebulgar/status/1915128911274668364  — X / TWITTER: @RitchieTorres @RepRitchie @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Alex Karp and Congressman Richie Torres discuss higher education, Palantir's culture, and contrarianism at the 2024 Hill and Valley Forum. Torres praises Karp for his fearlessness and moral clarity in a world of fear and moral confusion. Karp attributes his outspokenness to a desire for cultural clarity, which he believes is essential for building disruptive products and attracting top talent. Karp criticizes elite educational institutions for fostering dysfunction and antisemitism, viewing it as a betrayal of progressive values. He describes the crisis in higher education as a return to a "pagan religion" that contradicts the principles of liberalism and cognitive clarity. Karp emphasizes the importance of "non-playbook players" in the U.S., individuals who innovate without a set guide, a rare asset driving technological disruption. He acknowledges tensions between Capitol Hill and Silicon Valley but believes their relationship is structurally better than in most countries. Karp expresses confidence in the U.S. government's ability to adapt to rapid technological change, though it must improve procurement and focus on meritocracy. He highlights the U.S.'s unique advantage in producing innovative tech companies, citing meritocracy, top immigrants, and elite schools as key factors. In the U.S.-China tech arms race, Karp believes the U.S. is ahead but risks falling behind if elite institutions remain dysfunctional. He addresses fears about generative AI, advocating for embracing it as critical for GDP growth and competitive advantage, while acknowledging the need for regulation. Karp sees Palantir’s success as a model for creating a fairer, more equitable world and predicts the company will grow significantly in the next 20 years.

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• E137: AI Safety vs Speed: Helen Toner Discusses OpenAI Board Experience, Regulatory Approaches, and Military AI [The Cognitive Revolution]

  This week on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode of The Cognitive Revolution. Nathan Labenz interviews Helen Toner, director at CSET, about her experiences with OpenAI, the concept of adaptation buffers for AI integration, and AI's role in military decision-making. They discuss the implications of AI development, the need for regulatory policies, and the geopolitical dynamics involving AI competition with China. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess    — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:  🎙️ ‪The Cognitive Revolution The Cognitive Revolution is a podcast about AI where hosts Nathan Labenz and Erik Torenberg interview the builders on the edge of AI and explore the dramatic shift it will unlock over the next decades.  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk?si=7357ec31ac424043&nd=1&dlsi=060a53f1d7be47ad   Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431  — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Helen Toner's appearance on the TED AI show: https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_ai_show_what_really_went_down_at_openai_and_the_future_of_regulation_w_helen_toner  Helen Toner's substack : https://helentoner.substack.com/  Additional recommended reads: https://helentoner.substack.com/p/nonproliferation-is-the-wrong-approach  https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ai-for-military-decision-making/ https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/ai-regulation-s-champions-can-seize-common-ground-or-be-swept-aside  https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/05/26/ai-firms-mustnt-govern-themselves-say-ex-members-of-openais-board — X / TWITTER: @hlntnr @labenz @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Helen Toner joined OpenAI's board in 2021, bringing AI policy expertise when AGI discussions were still uncommon. She confirms that rumors about QStar contributing to the board's decision to fire Sam Altman were completely false. Helen observes contradictions at OpenAI: safety-focused research papers alongside aggressive policy positions. For AI whistleblowers, she recommends clear disclosure standards rather than vague reporting guidelines. Helen introduced the concept of "adaptation buffers," noting that while frontier AI development gets more expensive, capabilities become cheaper to replicate once achieved. Rather than focusing on non-proliferation, Helen advocates using adaptation time to build societal resilience (like improving outbreak detection). She favors conditional slowdowns (based on risk mitigation) rather than arbitrary pauses or compute limits. For military AI applications, Helen's research identifies three key considerations: scope (how tightly bound the system is), data quality, and human-machine interaction design. Helen expresses skepticism about "AI war simulations," arguing military contexts have too many unknowns to be modeled like games. She suggests the shift in AI CEOs' rhetoric about China competition is "the path of least resistance" to argue against regulation. Helen acknowledges the difficulty of reaching stable international equilibrium around AI development with too many unknowns about what superintelligence would mean for political systems.

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• E136: Trump V2: Tariffs, American Dynamism, Higher Ed | Byrne Hobart

  In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the economic consequences of Trump's tariffs, OpenAI's recent innovations, and their implications for white collar work. They also explore the potential market shifts, the resilience of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and the state of elite higher education institutions like Harvard in the current geopolitical climate. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess    — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:  🎙️Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future.  Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Trump's tariff decision was spontaneous, causing market volatility and creating an incentive for China to negatively influence U.S. markets. Tariffs are inherently inflationary, functioning as a tax that results in higher consumer prices. Moving manufacturing away from China creates inefficiencies but provides strategic security by reducing dependency. The U.S. should focus on strategic manufacturing in areas like drones and rare earth processing. China has demographic disadvantages ("getting old before getting rich") that weaken its long-term position. OpenAI's memory feature creates user lock-in by personalizing responses based on user history. White-collar workers may face employment disruption similar to what blue-collar workers experienced with automation. The U.S. dollar's reserve currency status has a self-healing characteristic - crises often lead to increased dollar demand rather than abandonment.

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• E135: The Problem With Reserve Currencies and Switching to Crypto w/ Lyn Alden [From the Archives]

  This week on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg’s 2024 interview with Lyn Alden. Lyn discusses her book 'Broken Money', the impact of the global reserve currency, inflation, interest rates, and provides advice for navigating an uncertain economic future. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Broken Money: https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG8985FR  Lyn’s website: https://www.lynalden.com/ — X / TWITTER: @LynAldenContact @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Lyn explains her book "Broken Money" provides a comprehensive global view of the 160 different currencies and monetary systems worldwide. She argues all monetary systems are essentially "ledger money" rather than just commodity or credit money. Lyn emphasizes how technology permanently shapes monetary systems, a perspective underexplored in academia. The telegraph was a crucial turning point, allowing information to move at the speed of light and shifting power toward centralized banks. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies enable peer-to-peer value transfer without centralized institutions. Crypto continues to challenge currency monopolies by letting people circumvent capital controls and save in alternatives to local currencies. The US dollar's reserve status creates structural trade deficits and contributes to deindustrialization. Reshoring manufacturing remains difficult while maintaining reserve currency status. Raising interest rates to combat inflation has become less effective as higher rates increase government interest expenses. With high debt-to-GDP ratios, fiscal deficits drive money supply growth more than bank lending. Future inflation depends on technological growth rates relative to money supply growth. Lyn advises owning real, scarce assets rather than treasury bonds. She warns that fighting technological disruption ultimately proves ineffective for governments.

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• E134: Atheism’s Decline, Consciousness, and The New Right w/ Ross Douthat

  Today on Upstream, Ross Douthat joins Erik Torenberg to discuss his new book 'Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious,' exploring the decline of new atheism, the intellectual defense of institutional religion, and the intersection between traditional Christianity, Silicon Valley, and modern materialism. This episode originally aired on Moment of Zen (April 12, 2025). — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess  — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:  🎙️Moment of Zen Every week, Erik Torenberg, Dan Romero, Antonio Garcia Martinez and frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/15KYOzvDzAQvqX0z0SpHEJ  Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moment-of-zen/id1661672738 — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine  🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Ross Douthat: https://www.nytimes.com/column/ross-douthat  Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious: https://www.zondervan.com/p/believe/ — X / TWITTER: @DouthatNYT @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Ross explains we're at a cultural inflection point where secularization has plateaued and there's evidence of religious revival. New atheism has declined as the world hasn't become more reasonable despite becoming less religious. Ross argues religion is intellectually defensible based on fine-tuning of the universe and the hard problem of consciousness. He contends that merely appreciating religion's social benefits isn't enough—genuine belief is necessary. The AI discussion explores whether consciousness might exist beyond materialist explanations. They examine tensions in the "New Right" between tech-optimists and religious traditionalists.

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