The SAF Podcast

For the third year running, Oscar sits down to unpack the 2026 SAF Market Outlook report once again with Mark Kelly (ICF) and this year with Iris Warnaar (SkyNRG).
The headline numbers: SAF demand is forecast to reach 12.8 million tonnes by 2030 (3.6% of jet fuel) and climb past 190 million tonnes by 2050, though US policy headwinds have pulled the near-term forecast down from last year's projections. On supply, 2030 capacity now stands at 18.5 million tonnes, creating a brief surplus before the market tightens again — and Asia has overtaken every other region to lead the global pipeline, largely to feed European demand.
The conversation digs into the HEFA feedstock constraint that still hasn't gone away, genuine, if modest, progress on eSAF and alcohol-to-jet and China's evolving role as both supplier and its own energy security case study. 
The episode closes with the third section of the report, a proper stress-test of the energy security argument that's dominated SAF conversations all year: real driver of investment, or narrative running ahead of the economics? Iris brings the optimism, Mark brings the risk register, and between them the picture that emerges is "positive but uneven" — with plenty left to sort out before the 2027 report rolls around.
If you have not already read the full report you can find it here: https://skynrg.com/2026-saf-market-outlook/

James Hygate, CEO and founder of Firefly, returns to The SAF Podcast for the first time since December 2023 — and a lot has happened. James brings his characteristic blend of technical depth, founder candour, and big-picture ambition to a brilliant wide ranging discussion.  
James opens with a comprehensive update on Firefly's progress: the selection of Turkish engineering firm Altaca as their HTL technology partner, the securing of a site at an existing refinery in Harwich for the downstream hydrotreating facility, and supply agreements with water companies including Severn Trent and Anglian Water that already cover more feedstock than the first facility needs. He also touches on the significance of the Boeing investment, the Builders Vision backing, and the ongoing Series B round that Firefly hopes to close shortly.
James also shares his observations from a recent visit to Shanghai on the pace of Chinese SAF and renewables infrastructure development, the implications of used cooking oil supply being internalised within China, and what lessons — if any — Western developers can draw from "China speed." We also explore the trajectory of the wider SAF industry, James's concerns about policy wobble and its chilling effect on infrastructure capital, and a frank view on whether some SAF projects are gaming mandates rather than genuinely pursuing decarbonisation.
Throughout, James returns to the thread that has defined his 20-year career in low carbon fuels: the only thing worth doing is something that can move the needle on climate change. For Firefly, that means wet-waste-to-jet at gigaton scale — and James believes the technology stack to do it is now in place.

In this episode, Oscar is joined by two guests at the heart of Europe's eSAF scale-up effort: Amy Herbert, Arcadia eFuels, and Thomas Engelmann, KGAL— both key figures within Project SkyPower, the industry coalition to the European Commission to put in place the conditions needed to bring eSAF projects to final investment decision.
Amy opens with an overview of Arcadia eFuels and its flagship Project Endor in Denmark — one of the most advanced eSAF projects in Europe, with FEED complete, permits secured, and an offtake agreement on the verge of being signed. Thomas explains KGAL's role as an infrastructure equity investor — with a stake in Project Endor — giving him a view of the eSAF financing challenge.
The conversation digs into Project SkyPower's ten-point recommendation letter to the European Commission, with a particular focus on the proposed double-sided auction mechanism and the role of H2 Global as a market-making intermediary. We explore why this instrument is seen as critical to breaking the chicken-and-egg deadlock between offtakers and producers — and why the timeline for getting it in place is a source of real concern, given that the 2030 eSAF mandates are fast approaching and greenfield refineries take years to build.
We also have a frank debate on airline competitiveness and the level playing field argument, whether eSAF is being treated fairly given that new fossil refineries would face comparable economics, why renewable electricity cost — not policy complexity — is a fundamental driver of eSAF pricing, and why the question isn't really whether to be optimistic about 2030, but what Plan B looks like if Europe fails to act.

Getting fully behind World Cup fever, SAF Investor is running The SAF World Cup.
Gathering experts from different countries, we will be running a knock out style bracket to find the most promising SAF country in the world. Decided by popular vote!
Whether it is policies, access to capital, offtakers, feedstock access, infrastructure expertise all these will be key discussion points. 
Join for a bit of World Cup fun alongside some serious discussion!

Speakers include:
Trevor Best, Syzygy Plasmonics - Brazil
Philippe Haffner, Haffner Energy - France
Jim Stonecipher, EdyMac - United States of America 
Andrew Symes, OXCCU - England
Izabela Santos, StratX Group - Sweden

Listen to the full webinar on our podcast for some light but informative SAF competition.

In this episode, we sit down with Dan Sutton, CEO and co-founder of Syntholene, to explore their geothermally integrated synthetic fuel production technology currently being developed in Iceland.
Dan explains why geothermal energy is such a compelling foundation for eSAF production, how Syntholene's solid oxide electrolyzer cell (SOEC) technology — integrated with Iceland's abundant heat and electricity — creates a step-change in hydrogen cost reduction, and why the company believes it can achieve unit economics competitive with fossil fuels without relying on perpetual subsidies.
 We also explore the independent feasibility study conducted by notable alternative fuels sceptic Robert Rapier, whose findings validated Syntholene's scientific fundamentals while identifying the integration and construction risks that Dan openly acknowledges — and explains how his team is managing them.
The conversation broadens into project development philosophy, the replicability of the Iceland model in geothermally active regions globally and how you manage earthquake and volcano risk, Iceland's strikingly low-bureaucracy environment for infrastructure permitting, and a frank debate on whether European eSAF policy is addressing the real problem — or papering over a fundamental unit economics challenge.
We close with Syntholene's unconventional but deliberate choice to go public on the TSX Venture Exchange — and why Dan believes building in public, with a diversified investor base, gives the company more control over its destiny than the traditional venture capital route.