Forward Guidance

• The Fed's Strategy Is To Be Late | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss our FOMC takeaways, Bessent making progress on a China trade deal, and how we’re thinking about the yield curve. We also delve into Fed QE misinformation, the bullish vs bearish risk-to-reward right now, the Taiwan dollar and Mag7 exodus, Bitcoin repeating last summer, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V9LpLt45QpaeAz-YgFcQZLlwwxTmqZaZ/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:29) FOMC Takeaways (09:03) Strong Economic Data & Tariffs Sidelining Fed (12:59) Unemployment & Immigration (15:11) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Ondo) (17:17) Inflation & Fed Reaction (22:28) Trading Cuts & the Curve (25:49) Fed QE Misinformation (29:42) Bessent & China Trade Deal (35:11) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Ondo) (38:00) Bullish vs Bearish Catalysts (44:34) Bitcoin & Global Liquidity (46:51) Taiwan Dollar, Klauss & Mag7 Exodus (55:21) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  56:21
• Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller

  In this episode, Craig Fuller joins the show to discuss how tariffs and Trump’s trade war are impacting shipping and supply chains. We dig into the differences between today and the COVID shock, the impact on small vs large businesses, bonded warehouses, the de minimis exemption, how this whole trade disruption is likely to unfold, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Craig: https://x.com/FreightAlley Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworksEligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:06) Tariff Shock vs COVID (07:31) Front Running & Stress Points (11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo) (12:41) Inventory Buffers (15:36) Impact on Small vs Large Businesses (22:55) How Will All this Unfold? (33:36) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo) (35:36) Point of No Return? (42:58) Tracking Shipping (45:37) De Minimis Exemption (48:45) Chinese Exporters (51:51) Demand Destruction & Inflation (53:25) Learn More About Craig’s Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  54:28
• The Die Is Cast For A 2025 Recession | Neil Dutta

  In this episode, Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro joins the show to discuss why he didn’t call for a recession in previous years but IS calling for one in 2025, why the labor market is looking bleak, and how tariffs, wages, and oil play into the inflation outlook. We also delve into what the Fed should be doing headed into the FOMC meeting, Fed independence & the future Chairman, how the long bond will react to a recession, and more. Enjoy!—Follow RenMac: https://x.com/RenMacLLC Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx —Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv—Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.comAt Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  51:49
• The Strong Data Is A Mirage | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss the strong jobs report and why next month is the time to look for weakness, the tariff strategy and how it’s bleeding into economic data, and people missing the forest for the trees in the Trump agenda. We also delve into the Treasury QRA, measuring Treasury market stress and why an intervention right now is a political decision, navigating bear market rallies, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NMv_qEEEV88_9ZH8epVSdwfpuv8jUgFn/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:40) NFP & Labor Market (10:31) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo) (11:26) Tariffs & Economic Data (17:38) Tariff Strategy (19:59) Unpacking the Trump Agenda (31:21) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo) (32:38) Treasury QRA & Buybacks (38:18) Treasury Market Stress & Demand (44:52) Market Structure & Bear Market Rallies (51:41) Risk Exposure is a Spectrum (53:47) MSTR Outlook — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  57:01
• Tariffs Are Reversing U.S Dollar Capital Flows | Bob Elliott

  In this episode, Bob Elliott joins the show to discuss the reversal of U.S Dollar capital flows after the announcement of Trump's tariffs. We deep dive into the U.S balance of payments problem, the changing economic order, why the U.S Dollar continues to get sold & how to structure a portfolio in this environment. Enjoy! -- Follow Bob: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx -- Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv -- At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ -- Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) The Changing U.S Economic Order (07:56) The Reversal Of U.S Dollar Capital Flows (12:38) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (13:47) Why Did The U.S Outperform Pre-2025? (18:05) Trump Tariffs = A Weaker Dollar, Assets & Growth (23:45) Is The U.S In A Balance Of Payments Crisis? (28:41) What Is The Bond Market Signaling? (32:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (33:44) The End Of U.S Exceptionalism (41:10) A New Regime For Markets? (43:35) The U.S Economic Supply Shock (47:03) Structuring Alpha vs Beta Portfolios -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  52:41

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