Forward Guidance

Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it.

This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how psychology, risk management, and market narratives shape successful trading.

We explore poker's lessons for traders, AI's role in markets, Kevin Warsh's Fed, the dollar and yen, and why predicting people may matter more than predicting macro. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:00 Trading Outside The Box

06:38 Trading Psychology And Risk

12:46 AI As A Trading Tool

19:33 How LLMs Shape Markets

25:19 Kevin Warsh And The New Fed

33:37 The Yen Intervention Playbook

41:40 Is Government Debt Sustainable?

43:00 Has Bitcoin Lost Its Narrative?

FOLLOW BRENT

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/donnelly_brent

› Spectra Markets – https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/

› Trade Outside The Box – https://a.co/d/0i4r9Udd

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack.

This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market structure all shift at once.

We discuss the AI momentum unwind, yen intervention, NFP & labor market weakness, Fed policy, gold, Bitcoin, and what we think is the next major trade. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:40 AI Momentum Starts To Crack

07:14 What Triggered The Selloff?

10:21 Is The AI Boom Peaking?

12:24 Why Gold Still Looks Attractive

14:19 Breaking Down The Jobs Report

18:06 Could Inflation Stay Sticky?

24:56 Is The Market Misreading The Fed?

27:54 How We're Trading This

32:47 Is Bitcoin Turning?

38:42 Why Gold Beats Tech

40:36 The Next Phase Of Crypto

44:17 July 4th And The World Cup

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14q53P0qQcFvyvvSBgVSZ-jM_TZU9HEyP/view?usp=drive_link

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh.

This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors interpret policy, economic data, and market pricing.

We discuss the end of the Fed put, rising rate volatility, Treasury curve dynamics, fiscal pressures, and why data-driven macro matters more than ever. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:04 Bob's Macro Background

09:21 Data-Driven Macro

13:13 The Fed Put Is Dead

16:46 Less Guidance, More Volatility

21:13 Why Data Matters Even More

25:35 The Two Trades In Rates

33:16 Balance Sheet Games

37:42 The Fiscal Doom Loop

43:32 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW BOB

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/LHMacro

› Research – https://lighthousemacro.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The Fed scare that dominated markets may already be losing momentum. Now investors are asking what comes next as the AI trade, inflation picture, and market leadership evolve.

This week, we break down why the Fed may be nearing the end of its hiking cycle, how AI investment is reshaping markets, and where capital is rotating next.

We also discuss peak inflation, hyperscaler capex, market dispersion, active management, and why new leaders could replace the old winners. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:16 FIFA World Cup

04:24 Peak Hawkishness Fading

09:53 Oil, Gasoline, And Disinflation

12:28 Why Inflation Stays Sticky

14:22 Monetary Policy vs AI CapEx

19:43 Warsh: Balance Sheet & Rates

25:22 Hyperscalers Hit The CapEx Wall

29:38 Passive Investing Cracking?

33:37 Market Leadership Rotating

42:07 The Productive Capital Cycle?

44:24 MicroStrategy Hits Reality

50:09 Bitcoin, AI, And Power

55:26 Do Things IRL

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cLd9ck8EM77hJz9ZlnB_5VKd8ai1Sb2d/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly?

This week, we break down Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the end of traditional forward guidance, and why they believe peak hawkishness may already be behind us despite the Fed's messaging.

We also discuss the AI capex boom, the future of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, tightening liquidity, housing affordability, and whether markets are entering a fundamentally different regime. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:13 Forward Guidance Is Dead

08:28 Rate Volatility Returns

13:08 Why Hikes Won’t Happen

18:33 Liquidity Gets Tight

26:15 The AI Buildout Meets The Fed

35:55 The Summer Market Setup

42:39 MicroStrategy's Market Test

46:18 Bitcoin’s AI Opportunity Cost

53:29 Crypto Needs To Adapt

01:00:46 Gold Sentiment Hits Extremes

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yGHU0SgEjUNE1cDKP280F60FsRrcBqOh/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.