Forward Guidance

Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy?

This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street.

We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields?

08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks

14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields Down?

19:23 The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act

22:42 Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom?

29:04 Why Policymakers Need Stocks Higher

33:04 Do Rate Hikes Actually Stimulate?

38:13 Engineering Buyers For Government Debt

43:00 Europe’s Inflation Or Industry Dilemma

48:23 Why Europe’s Crisis Keeps Getting Worse

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Aidan – https://x.com/AidanGarrib

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher.

This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds.

We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising

07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates?

11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff?

16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix?

19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade

23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom?

26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over

29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff?

35:55 How Do You Trade This Market?

39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets?

44:21 What Is The Market Hiding?

50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks

53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders?

58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› DCP – https://x.com/Dcpcooks

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn– https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks. –https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_6xkDwJy-Ux1Ko3q8H8LmOfbVNk-tTlI/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for. one ofthe biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation?

This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset.

We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish?

08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading

13:11 The Return Of Stagflation

21:06 Is The Fed Making A Mistake?

25:45 Can Trump Salvage Midterms?

32:35 Why AI Leaders Want Regulation

35:46 Will Europe Follow Japan?

48:45 The European Debasement Trade

59:28 Is The UK The Best Hedge?

01:05:41 Can Canada Reinvent Its Economy?

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Vincent – https://x.com/VincentDeluard

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/189_grP_F-bFABLdyh84TJA3GzOlLmIQm/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade.

This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling.

We explore volatility pricing, crowded correlation trades, the Treasury market stress, why AI stocks could suddenly move together, and whether the Fed can calm markets. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

05:08 Why Stock Correlation Collapsed

10:49 What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade?

18:45 Ads (Token 2049, Avalanche Summit)

20:21 Could Volmageddon Happen Again?

27:16 Why Tail Hedging Looks Attractive

35:35 Can Portfolio Insurance Ever Be Free?

39:55 Systematic Or Discretionary Hedging?

42:33 Where Could Market Risk Emerge?

47:27 Can The Fed Calm Markets?

53:22 Closing Thoughts

FOLLOW GUEST

› X – https://x.com/Dcurnutt

› LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/dean-curnutt-4060157/

› Macro Risk Advisors – https://www.macroriskadvisors.com/

› Alpha Exchange – https://www.axpod.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear.

This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets.

We explore the massive increase to Treasury buybacks, a possible one-and-done hike, slowing AI-led growth, if debasement trades are due for a pause, and the growing bipartisan opposition toward AI . Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:07 Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market?

06:56 Should The 10-Year Yield Be 5.8%?

11:01 The Inflation-Growth Trap

18:29 Ads (TOKEN2049, Avalanche)

20:05 Will The Fed Hike?

26:08 Is One Credibility Hike Enough?

30:29 Is Economic Growth Peaking?

33:04 Can Debasement Trades Keep Running?

37:42 Is The AI Trade Breaking?

43:22 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AJwlll7otUeoen1KdtSLuJZWRTyH8o5O/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.