Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante

We get a lot of questions about whether we're in a bubble & if so when will it burst. Many feel that "Bubble" is a pejorative. I see it differently. To me a bubble is an economic event where asset prices & valuations in a new or growing market rise far above their current value. Bubbles are characterized by media hype, investor exuberance, fast/easy money & FOMO. Bubbles do not always burst in a sudden, catastrophic event. Sometimes they have a "soft landing." 
AI can be technologically transformative and still produce a capital bubble. Those two ideas are not in conflict.
The bubble bursting does not require AI to fail. It only requires deployable supply and capital commitments to grow faster than monetizable demand. When productive, revenue-producing AI capacity takes longer to materialize, pricing will normalize and financing will no longer bridge the gap. That’s when the capital cycle possibly resets and a liquidity crunch ensues.

AMD's first reinvention rebuilt the company. It was frankly about survival. Its next reinvention must redefine it.
The company's resurgence over the past decade came from doing what many thought was impossible: rebuilding its CPU franchise, taking meaningful share from Intel, and restoring credibility through disciplined execution.
But in our view, AMD's next chapter is fundamentally different.

Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante and George Gilbert

Agentic AI is being misread as a series of separate battles - e.g. Snowflake vs. Databricks, copilots vs. agents, model makers vs. app vendors, etc. We think the real story is that the biggest opportunity in software is converging around who owns the new intelligent client and the AI back end that makes it useful. The new client is the agent-based system of engagement - Snowflake’s CoWork & CoCo, Databricks Genie, Microsoft Copilot, Google Gemini Enterprise, ChatGPT/Codex, Claude/Cowork and others. But that client cannot deliver business outcomes without a new back end - what we call a System of Intelligence - that represents a model of the enterprise in terms of its business rules and tacit knowledge. You can’t build one without the other. We frame this premise using Clay Christensen’s integrated innovation and Jensen’s extreme co-design as applied to enterprise software.
That is why Snowflake is the focal point for this Breaking Analysis, but not the whole story. Snowflake is not just competing with Databricks anymore. It is now in the same strategic arena as Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, Salesforce, SAP, ServiceNow, Celonis and others - all trying to define where business users, builders and agents get work done, and where the enterprise context that powers that work gets built.

Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante and George Gilbert