Europe Inside Out

• Europe’s Place on the Global Chessboard

  The EU-U.S. trade deal concluded in July and the EU-China summit held the same month highlighted Europe’s weakening position on the global chessboard. Rym Momtaz, Rosa Balfour, and Erik Jones unpack why European leaders struggle to play power politics and explore what it will take for the EU to regain strategic agency. [00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:54] Europe's Summer of Delusion, [00:14:18] Prospects for EU Institutional Reform [00:24:18] Europe's Quest for a Strategic VisionRosa Balfour, April 30, 2025, “Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It’s Crafting a Plan B,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Rosa Balfour, March 25, 2025, “The Case for Europe,” Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, Sinan Ülgen, November 28, 2024, “Europe’s Fledgling Economic Statecraft and the Trump Challenge,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, Erik Jones, et al., November 19, 2024, “Geopolitics and Economic Statecraft in the European Union,” Carnegie Europe.Erik Jones, July 17, 2025, “Betting on Europe,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Erik Jones, Gideon Rose, June 23, 2025, “Europe’s Two-Front War,” Foreign Affairs.Erik Jones, November 6, 2024, “How Draghi and Letta May Help in Dealing With Trump,” Encompass.Rym Momtaz et al., August 28, 2025, “Taking the Pulse: With Trump, Has Europe Capitulated?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rym Momtaz, August 26, 2025, “Europe’s Summer of Trump Delusion,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rym Momtaz et al., July 24, 2025, “Taking the Pulse: Does the EU-China Summit Show a Weakened European Hand with Beijing?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rym Momtaz, July 15, 2025, “Europe’s Claim to Geopolitical Power Isn’t Passing the Trump Test,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

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• Can Turkey and Armenia Normalize Relations?

  Relations between Turkey and Armenia remain frozen, largely because of Azerbaijan’s influence over Ankara and a lack of sustained Western diplomatic engagement. Rym Momtaz sat down with Thomas de Waal and Garo Paylan to discuss the main obstacles to a rapprochement and why reopening the Turkey-Armenia border matters for both regional and Western interests.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:35] The State of Turkey-Armenia Relations, [00:11:58] Russia's Influence in the Process, [00:20:47] Can the West Play a Role?Thomas de Waal, March 17, 2025, “Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Major Step Forward,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Thomas de Waal, September 19, 2024, “Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Fragile Peace Process,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, July 11, 2024, “Armenia Navigates a Path Away From Russia,” Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, Dimitar Bechev, and Maksim Samorukov, May 30, 2024, “Between Russia and the EU: Europe’s Arc of Instability,” Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, September 22, 2023, “A Tragic Endgame in Karabakh,” Carnegie Europe.Garo Paylan, January 30, 2025, “Leveraging International Pressure to Reform Turkey,” CivilNet.Garo Paylan, January 13, 2025, “Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal: A Golden Opportunity for Trump,” Wall Street Journal.Garo Paylan, July 3, 2024, “Why Washington Must Push Forward the Fragile Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Plan,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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• How AI Is Reshaping the Global Order

  As transatlantic tensions over technology and AI regulation intensify, emerging powers like China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are seeking to assert their dominance in the tech domain. Rym Momtaz sat down with Sinan Ülgen and Sam Winter-Levy to discuss the dual-use nature of generative AI and large language models and how they might be misused by malign actors. [00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:28] Generative AI and Large Language Models, [00:11:57] The Efforts in Regulating Generative AI, [00:19:23] The Future of the Tech SectorSinan Ülgen, January 27, 2025, “The World According to Generative Artificial Intelligence,” Carnegie Europe.Sinan Ülgen, August 13, 2024, “Turkey’s Instagram Spat Shows the Limits of Global Content Governance,” Financial Times.Sam Winter-Levy, Sophia Besch, January 30, 2025 “How Will AI Export Policies Redefine U.S. Global Influence?” The World Unpacked, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Sam Winter-Levy, Matt Sheehan, January 28, 2025, “Chips, China, and a Lot of Money: The Factors Driving the DeepSeek AI Turmoil,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Sam Winter-Levy, January 24, 2025, “The United Arab Emirates’ AI Ambitions,” Center for Strategic and International Studies.Sam Winter-Levy, January 13, 2025, “With Its Latest Rule, the U.S. Tries to Govern AI’s Global Spread,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Sam Winter-Levy, December 13, 2024, “The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Sam Winter-Levy, September 20, 2024, “Silicon Valley Hasn’t Revolutionized Warfare—Yet,” Foreign Policy.

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• Can Europe Keep Democracy Alive?

  One of the Trump administration’s first moves has been the dismantling of USAID, an agency that has been critical for international development and democracy promotion.Rym Momtaz sat down with Thomas Carothers and Richard Youngs to discuss the implications of U.S. cuts to foreign aid and Europe’s role in keeping the global democracy agenda alive.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:11] Trump’s Cuts to USAID, [00:10:07] The Need to Rethink the International Democracy Agenda, [00:20:33] Europe's Defensive Approach to Democracy.Thomas Carothers, March 3, 2025, “Does U.S. Democracy Aid Have a Future?,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Thomas Carothers, February 4, 2025, “The Heartless Upheaval of American Foreign Aid,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Thomas Carothers, March 3, 2025, “Prospects for US Democracy Support During the Second Trump Presidency,” European Democracy Hub.Thomas Carothers, Richard Youngs, May 2, 2024, “European and U.S. Democracy Support: The Limits of Convergence,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Richard Youngs, February 26, 2025, “European Reactions to the U.S. Retreat From Democracy,” Carnegie Europe.Richard Youngs, February 26, 2025, “No world order: Europe needs more radical thinking for the Trump era,” The Conversation.Richard Youngs et al., January 23, 2025, “European Democracy Support Annual Review 2024,” Carnegie Europe.Richard Youngs, Elene Panchulidze, December 2, 2024, “Playing Defence: Europe and Democracy,” Survival.Richard Youngs, September 25, 2024, “The European Union is becoming too obsessed with defence,” The Conversation.

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• Can the EU Outmaneuver Russia Around the Black Sea?

  Russia’s belligerence and political interference in some of the Black Sea littoral states threaten the EU’s influence in the region. Rym Momtaz sat down with Dimitar Bechev and Thomas de Waal to discuss how the union can respond to Moscow’s destabilizing actions and keep the enlargement process on track. [00:00:00] Intro, [00:02:13] The Political Situation in Georgia and Moldova, [00:10:04] The EU’s Enlargement Strategy, [00:20:14] Europe’s Role in the Black SeaRym Momtaz et al., December 5, 2024, “Taking the Pulse: Are Information Operations Russia’s Most Potent Weapon Against Europe?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Dimitar Bechev, November 25, 2024, “Illiberal eastern Europeans look to play their Trump card,” Financial Times.Dimitar Bechev, Richard Giragosian, Gorana Grgić, and Batu Kutelia, December 5, 2024, “In Brief: Russia’s Hybrid War,”War on the Rocks.Dimitar Bechev, Iliriana Gjoni, October 24, 2024, “All Is Not Well With EU Enlargement to the Western Balkans,” Carnegie Europe.Dimitar Bechev, June 27, 2024, “Between the EU and Moscow: How Russia Exploits Divisions in Bosnia,” Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.Dimitar Bechev, June 20, 2024, “Can EU Enlargement Work?,” Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, January 16, 2025, “Moldova’s Gas Crisis Is Europe’s Headache,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, October 31, 2024, “Georgia’s Dangerous Moment Is a Challenge for the EU,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, October 9, 2024, “Can Georgia Stay on Its European Path?,” Europe Inside Out, Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, June 5, 2024, “Opportunistic Georgia joins Europe’s illiberal club,” Financial Times.Thomas de Waal, October 9, 2024, “Between Russia and the EU: Europe’s Arc of Instability,” Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

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