International report

• Trump's first 100 days: Tariffs war shakes trade and investment in Africa

  During the first 100 days of his second term in office, US President Donald Trump has issued a series of executive orders that have unsettled the commodities market and prompted investors to hold off from making new investments in African economies. In the last three months, Trump has presented the world with “a ding-dong of measures and counter-measures," as Nigerian finance analyst Gbolahan Olojede put it.With such measures including increased tariffs on US imports from African nations (as elsewhere), this new regime has effectively called into question the future validity of preferential trade agreements with African states – such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows duty-free access, under strict conditions, to the US market for African goods."The reciprocal tariffs effectively nullify the preferences that sub-Saharan Africa countries enjoy under AGOA," South Africa's foreign and trade ministers said in a joint statement on 4 April.Jon Marks, editorial director of energy consultancy and news service African Energy, echoed this climate of uncertainty: “With the Trump presidency lurching from policy to policy, no one knows where they are. And it's very difficult to actually see order within this chaos."Africa braces for economic hit as Trump’s tariffs end US trade perksHe told RFI he expects long periods of stasis, in which nothing actually happens, when people have been expecting immediate action.“That's going to be, I think, devastating for markets, devastating for investment. The outlook really is grim," he added.CommoditiesIn 2024, US exports to Africa were worth $32.1 billion. The US imported $39.5 billion worth of goods from Africa, the bulk of these being commodities such as oil and gas, as well as rare minerals including lithium, copper and cobalt.“The focus of the Trump administration is on critical minerals now, particularly in the [Democratic Republic of Congo], which is the Saudi Arabia of cobalt,” said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project news site.The US is aiming to build non-Chinese supply chains for its military technology.“The F-35s, supersonic fighter jets, need cobalt. When they look at critical minerals, they're not looking at that for renewable energy. They're looking at it specifically for weapons and for their defence infrastructure,” Olander explained.Collateral damageOn 2 April, President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on US imports worldwide, declaring that the US “has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far” and calling this date a “Liberation Day” which will make “America wealthy again”.Stock markets immediately plummeted as a result of his announcement.On 9 April, Trump announced a 90-day pause – until mid-July – on these tariffs. Instead, a flat 10 percent rate will be applied on exports to the US.The exception was China, whose goods face even higher tariffs – 145 percent on most Chinese goods. Beijing retaliated with 125 percent levies on US imports.According to Olander, most African nations have so far been “insulated from the harsh impact of these tariffs” and from the consequences of what is, in effect, a trade war between two economic giants – China and the US.“South Africa, which accounts for a considerable amount of Africa's trade with the United States, is much more exposed to the effects of these tariffs than the rest of the continent,” he said.Africa FirstBut what if Trump's "America First" agenda was to be copied, asks Kelvin Lewis, editor of the Awoko newspaper in Sierra Leone.“Just like Trump is saying America First, we should think Sierra Leone First,” he told RFI. “He is teaching everyone how to be patriotic. We have no reason to depend on other people, to go cap in hand begging, because we have enough natural resources to feed and house all 9 million of us Sierra Leoneans.”He added: “If Africa says we close shop and we use our own resources for our benefit like Trump is telling Americans, I think the rest of the world would stand up and take notice.”Meanwhile, Trump believes his imposition of these increased tariffs has succeeded in bringing countries to the negotiating table.“I'm telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass. They are dying to make a deal. Please, please sir, make a deal. I'll do anything. I'll do anything, sir,” Trump said on 8 April at a Republican Congress committee dinner in Washington.New marketsOlander believes that the trade war instigated by Trump has resulted in more risks than opportunities for Africa’s vulnerable countries.“But, there is a lot more activity now diplomatically between African countries and other non-US countries,” he added.“Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from Ethiopia was in Vietnam, as was Burundi's president. There’s more engagement between Uganda and Indonesia, more trade activity and discussions between Brazil and Africa.”Foreign ministers from the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) met in Rio de Janeiro on 28 April to coordinate their response to Trump’s trade policy.However, securing markets for non-US exports is a challenging task. It took Kenya 10 years “of steady diplomacy” to get China to fund the extension of the Standard Gauge Railway to the Ugandan border, according to Olander.Kenyan president visits China as country pivots away from the US“Whether it's in China, Indonesia, Brazil or elsewhere, it takes time. Exporting into developed G7 markets means facing an enormous number of hurdles, like agricultural restrictions,” he continued. “Then, in the global south, Angola is not going to sell bananas to Brazil, right?”“Trump's trade policies have actually been to depress the oil price,” said Marks. “The price has been under the psychologically low threshold of $70 a barrel.He explains it is because of the demand destruction Trump's policies have placed on global trading.Demand destruction means that people are not investing, “ Marks said. “It's really a period of wait-and-see.”“This will affect prices very profoundly. One of the ironies is that although a lower dollar means that African economies should be able to export their goods for more money, a declining dollar amidst market uncertainties means that investors are not going to be rushing to come into Africa.”

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• Trump's first 100 days: Trade, diplomacy and walking the transatlantic tightrope

  Donald Trump’s return to the White House has brought with it a seismic shift in transatlantic dynamics, with rising trade tensions, reduced diplomatic engagement and growing uncertainty over the future of Western alliances. So what has been the early impact of his second term on EU–US relations and how is Europe responding? With Trump's administration wasting no time in rekindling the “America First” doctrine, this time with fewer diplomatic niceties, tensions over trade, diplomacy and the long-term stability of the transatlantic alliance quickly arose. From the imposition of sweeping tariffs on EU goods – 20 percent across the board, covering all exports from France and other member states – to a reduction in support for Ukraine, Trump's early moves have sent a clear message: Washington’s priorities have shifted – and not in Europe’s favour.Brussels’ response, while restrained, has been firm, and the sense that Europe can no longer rely fully on Washington is taking root.Trump's tariffs come into force, upending economic ties with EuropeRetreat, rather than reformOne of the most striking aspects of Trump’s second term so far is his rapid dismantling of traditional US diplomatic structures.Former US diplomat William Jordan warns that the institutional capacity of American diplomacy is being hollowed out. “The notion of America First risks turning into America Alone,” he said.“Everything that's been happening since 20 January has largely demoralised and damaged the State Department."There has been an exodus of seasoned diplomats, alongside a wave of politically motivated "loyalty tests" handed out to charities, NGOs and United Nations agencies as part of the State Department’s review of foreign aid – asking them to declare whether they have worked with "entities associated with communist, socialist, or totalitarian parties, or any parties that espouses anti-American beliefs".European allies rally behind Ukraine after White House clashThe cumulative effect of this threat to the impartiality of America's foreign service, Jordan notes, is a profound erosion of trust – not just within US institutions but among global partners.“There are worries in the intelligence community that longstanding partners can no longer share sensitive information with the United States,” he added, raising concerns about the durability of intelligence alliances such as Five Eyes, comprising the US, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.Trump’s decision to scale back overseas missions and USAID funding has also left vast vacuums of influence – particularly in Africa, where both China and Russia are stepping in to fill the void.“It’s not just that it’s being done – it's how it’s being done. Brutally. Recklessly. Slashing and burning institutions that have taken decades to build,” Jordan told RFI.Amid this weakening of America’s traditional soft power influence, however, Jordan also cautions that the country's soft power strategies have not always been effective, pointing to congressional inertia and overlapping funding mandates which have dulled strategic impact.Still, he maintains, a haphazard retreat does more harm than reform.A dressing-down in MunichEurope’s discomfort was visible in February at the Munich Security Conference, where US Vice President JD Vance delivered a remarkable rebuke to European leaders, accusing them of wavering on democratic values.The message was harsh, and the delivery even more so – an unprecedented public dressing-down in a diplomatic forum. The reaction in Munich embodied Europe’s growing unease.European fears mount at Munich conference as US signals shift on Ukraine“Certainly the language was something that you wouldn't expect,” Mairéad McGuinness, the former EU Commissioner for Financial Stability told RFI.“This is somebody coming to our house and telling us they don’t like how we run it. It’s not what you expect between friends and allies. Was it a surprise? Maybe not,” she added. “But it’s not normal."The incident underscored an increasingly assertive US posture under Trump 2.0, and the deepening fissures within the Western alliance, reflected in the new administration's willingness to publicly challenge long-standing relationships.European allies rally behind Ukraine after White House clash'Confidence in the US is eroding'The EU has responded with a measured approach – "how the European Union tends to do its business,” according to McGuinness.“What is problematic is trying to understand exactly what the US side wants,” she continued. “We’re hearing not just about tariffs, but also about food safety, financial regulation – areas where Europe leads globally."Rather than caving to pressure, the EU is showing signs of a more confident and coordinated strategic posture – in a similar vein to its response during the Covid-19 crisis and its rapid support for Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion.One consequence of these shifting diplomatic sands has been a rise in investment in European defence, following the US decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine.EU Commission chief calls for defence 'surge' in address to EU parliamentWith EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announcing that, under the Rearm Europe plan announced by  on 6 March, EU member states can boost defence spending, European arms manufacturers are seizing the opportunity to compete against their US rivals.While not a wholesale pivot away from the US, it signals a broader awareness that over-reliance on any single partner carries risks.William Jordan put it bluntly: “Confidence in the US as a reliable partner is eroding, and not just in Europe.”For him, this moment could present an opportunity for Europe to build a more independent and robust security architecture – one less vulnerable to the whims of any one American president.

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• How Donald Trump shaped a new world in just 100 days and what to do about it

  US President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office have been marked by unprecedented volatility and deep divisions across the country.  Praised by supporters for his pledges to "restore faith in government" and "secure borders," his tenure has also provoked widespread concern among Democrats and political analysts, who criticise his erratic style and sweeping executive orders that have disrupted established institutions and international alliances.Trump's first 100 days: Revolution or destruction? The view from FranceThe Trump administration has issued over 130 executive orders, including mass dismissals, aggressive immigration enforcement, and withdrawal from climate accords—measures that have had profound social and economic consequences.Critics warn that such actions erode democratic norms and due process, while grassroots protests and public demonstrations have surged across the country in response to policies widely viewed as damaging to communities and public services.Trump's first 100 days: Grassroots pick up Democratic slack as 'chaos' unfoldsIn this international report, we look ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, with experts suggesting that Trump’s confrontational approach and divisive policies could ultimately backfire on the Republican Party—potentially costing it crucial support.   

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• 'We're not for sale': the election message reshaping Canada's foreign policy

  As Canada heads to the polls on Monday, a historic shift in national identity and foreign policy is unfolding, driven by growing disillusionment with the United States and a renewed embrace of European alliances. Across Canada there is a strong sense that this crucial election is about more than domestic policy.It is being seen as a referendum not just on leadership, but on Canada’s place in the world – particularly in terms of its increasingly strained relationship with the United States and a growing desire to forge closer ties with allies in Europe.“This election really matters,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a Canadian, non-profit polling organisation.“More than nine in 10 Canadians say it’s more important than the last two elections – and over seven and a half million have already voted early. That’s huge, in a country of just over 40 million."From Trudeau to CarneyThe election follows the resignation of Justin Trudeau in January, after nearly a decade in office.While once a global liberal icon, Trudeau had seen his domestic popularity plunge, and by the end of 2024 his Liberal Party was trailing the opposition Conservatives by 30 percentage points.His departure set the stage for Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor, to step into the political spotlight as the new Liberal party leader.But it wasn’t just the change in Liberal leadership that shifted the political winds.“The other main character,” as Kurl put it, “was Donald Trump."Trump unveils sweeping US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China - EU next?Trump’s re-emergence on the US political stage – and his increasingly provocative comments about Canada – electrified the Canadian political conversation.He floated ideas about annexation, referred to Canada as "ripe for reabsorption", and reintroduced aggressive trade rhetoric – all of which triggered a wave of public backlash north of the border.“Canadians initially dismissed it as Trump being Trump,” Kurl told RFI. “But the more he talked, the more seriously people took it. There was real anger, a sense of betrayal – and the politicians who leaned into that emotion did well”.Nationalism, the Canadian wayCarney responded with a tone rarely seen in Canadian politics: firm, unapologetic nationalism.He rejected Trump’s rhetoric outright, reiterated Canada's sovereignty and committed to defending Canadian interests – economically and politically.“We don’t tend to do overt nationalism in Canada,” Kurl explained. “But this time, it worked."We saw a huge swing in the polls – from a 30-point deficit to a five-point Liberal lead today. And that shift is in no small part down to Carney embracing a message of pride and independence."What’s changed most dramatically is the tone of Canada’s relationship with the US, once its closest ally.Kurl notes that Canadian travel to the US has dropped significantly in recent months, a reflection of a more widespread cooling of sentiment towards the country's southern neighbour.“The US was Canada’s best friend – not just its biggest trading partner, but emotionally too. And now people are saying, this just isn’t working."And for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, this has been a missed opportunity, as he ignored the Trump factor until the campaign was already under way.For Kurl, Poilievre's recognition of Canadian anger and disappointment with the US came "too little, too late".New Canadian PM in Europe to seek 'reliable partners' amidst trade war with USLooking towards EuropeIn Carney’s first foreign visit as prime minister, he bypassed Washington opting instead to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.The symbolism was clear: Canada is looking elsewhere for dependable allies.That shift is not just diplomatic theatre. The Carney-Macron meeting produced agreements on cybersecurity, clean energy and artificial intelligence, and reaffirmed both countries’ support for Ukraine.This new strategic alignment has deep roots – particularly in Quebec, where cultural and historical ties to France have given the pivot to Europe added momentum and legitimacy.“It’s not just short-term crisis management,” said Kurl. “Canada’s been burned before by Trump. During his first term, we saw the renegotiation of Nafta and a lot of anti-Canada trade rhetoric. But nothing really changed – the economy remained heavily tied to the US. This time, there’s a real sense that we need to act, not just wait it out."That said, a full break with the US is not on the cards.“There can never be a complete divorce,” Kurl concedes. “Our economies are deeply intertwined, and we share a very, very long border. But there is a renewed focus: Canada must diversify its economic relationships. It can’t afford not to."French PM defends Ceta trade deal on visit to Canada, despite lawmakers' rejectionFor voters, this election is about who can best protect Canada’s independence, its values and its interests, in an increasingly volatile international environment.As Kurl said: "Canadians are taking this election very seriously, because they know what’s at stake. The question is no longer just, who should lead us? It’s, where do we go from here?"

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• How Trump’s steep tariffs on China are pushing the EU closer to Beijing

  The global car industry is facing major upheaval after US President Donald Trump imposed a 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports in early April – the highest so far in the US-China trade dispute. The tariffs, which apply to dozens of countries including US allies, aim to protect American manufacturing. But they are also making car production and trade more expensive and complicated, especially for automakers and consumers in the US and China.Bill Russo, CEO of Automobility, a Shanghai-based think tank, said the auto industry has long depended on large, low-cost markets, with China at the centre. He said the new tariffs disrupt this model by raising costs and making it harder for companies using cheaper Chinese production to stay competitive.US automakers and consumers are likely to face higher costs, he said, while Chinese carmakers will be less affected because they do not rely heavily on the US market.The US tariffs are also likely to change how the European Union deals with China.While the EU has already imposed its own tariffs on Chinese goods, mainly electric cars, Beijing and Brussels are now more likely to work together in response to Washington’s “America First” approach.EU votes to impose tough new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles

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