Barclays Brief

Prediction markets are suddenly top of mind for a range of people. From elections and sporting events to pop culture and breaking news, probabilities are flashing across screens in real time. What started as a niche concept is increasingly being treated as a signal for how uncertainty gets processed and priced.​
In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler sits down with US Gaming Research Analyst, Brandt Montour, to explore why prediction markets have surged into the spotlight. They dig into how these platforms work, why the “wisdom of crowds” has captured attention across media and finance, and what’s driving the growth in activity and valuations.​
The conversation goes beyond the hype, tackling the growing regulatory pushback, the tension between state and federal oversight, and the key differences between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks. They also examine who’s winning, who’s losing, and what the rapid shift in capital across the gaming landscape may be signaling for investors thinking about how to position as this market continues to evolve.​
Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​
Mounting Opposition, but No Quick Regulatory Endgame​
Predicting a Sports Launch - 72¢​
Prediction markets for CPI?​

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Quantum computing has long been viewed as a future technology. Now, it’s poised to overtake classical computing systems in specific useful tasks in the next 12-24 months.
In this episode of Barclays Brief, Laia Marin joins Patrick Coffey to discuss why now may be the time for corporates and investors to engage with quantum computing. They break down the fundamentals, including the different modalities, and its potential to solve complex business problems, analysing unstructured data and developing complex optimisation solutions.
Laia also explores the current limitations of quantum systems, the competing qubit modalities racing to scale, and how quantum computing is additive to classical computing infrastructure, potentially allowing companies to integrate quantum capabilities alongside existing systems, rather than replacing them.
This episode offers an accessible overview of where quantum stands today – and how to start preparing for its impact.

Listeners can hear more on this topic:​
•Episode 20: Software: In the AI storm

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:
•Quantum Computing: The race is on
•Quantum Computing: Friend, not foe
•Quantum Computing: Correcting the biggest investor myths around quantum

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In recent months, market narratives have been dominated by geopolitical shocks, energy volatility and higher interest rates. But step back, and a much bigger story is coming into focus.
Advanced economies may be on the cusp of a new, historic investment cycle – one with the potential to rival the great build‑outs of the past, from 19th‑century railroads to the Apollo missions and the information‑technology boom of the 1990s.
While much of the capex narrative has focused on AI and the race by hyperscalers to build faster, more efficient models, this is only one part of the picture. Energy systems, electrification, defence spending and economic resilience are all reinforcing the scale of capital deployment now underway.
In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Christian Keller, Chief Economist at Barclays, to examine how 150 years of investment data show that long periods of under‑investment are often followed by powerful capex cycles and why after two decades of weakness, the latest numbers point to the early stages of one with historic potential.
Listeners can hear more on this topic:​
•Episode 22: Processing uncertainty in real time
•Episode 17: Metals & mining: meltdown or opportunity?
•Episode 7: US dollar & the AI capex cycle

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:
•Supersize me: The coming investment cycle
•Cracks, but not a crater (Q2 Global Outlook)
•Defence Quarterly: a 10-year cycle still to come?

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Markets have been anything but calm lately. Inflation shocks, surging energy prices and the AI narrative have collided to deliver one of the most dramatic periods in rates markets in years, forcing investors to rethink interest‑rate paths in real time.
In Europe and the UK, that reassessment has been especially stark. Expectations for rate cuts have rapidly flipped to pricing further hikes, with the Bank of England at the centre of the storm. Gilt yields have surged to levels last seen during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, while German yields have climbed to post‑sovereign‑crisis highs. What began as an energy shock has quickly morphed into a bond‑market shock, lifting borrowing costs for households and businesses alike and delivering a renewed wave of financial whiplash for mortgage holders.
Against this already fragile backdrop, markets were whipsawed yet again by a single social‑media post, triggering sharp reversals across rates, equities and commodities in the space of hours.
So how do you trade through volatility of this magnitude? Which signals still matter when headlines dominate price action? And how do inflation risks, AI‑driven narratives and crowded positioning interact in today’s market structure?
To make sense of it all, Patrick Coffey is joined by Hamza Hoummady, Head of EMEA Rates Trading, for a wide‑ranging discussion on what is driving today’s unprecedented moves, how this episode compares with past crises, and what investors should be watching next.
Listeners can hear more on this topic:​
•Episode 23: A bullish view on US equities
•Episode 22: Processing uncertainty in real time
•Episode 16: Forces shaping markets in 2026
Clients can read more on Barclays Live:
•Recovery delayed redux
•On hold, holding on
•Ides of March
•Dueling mandates
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Markets may look relatively steady compared with past oil shocks, but the real story sits in the undercurrents. Despite only a modest pullback in major indices, the Iran‑linked shock has sparked some of the sharpest sector rotations in years as fast‑moving capital unwinds crowded trades and reprices global risk.
In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined once again by Alex Altmann, Head of Equity Tactical Strategies, to break down what’s really moving markets: crowded international trades unwinding, energy‑importing regions under pressure, and liquidity mismatches accelerating the rotation.
They also dig into the commodity complex, hit hard as investors absorbed significant losses, and explore why structural forces such as US-China decoupling, strategic reserve building, and critical minerals demand still support a compelling multi‑month (and potentially multi‑year) thematic opportunity.
Ultimately, the conversation asks: what are market internals signalling that headline indices fail to show?
From energy‑price anxiety and shifting Fed expectations to private credit concerns, join Patrick and Alex as they assess the pressures facing investors and why strong US corporate margins, healthier private‑sector balance sheets, and powerful AI‑driven capex trends continue to underpin a resilient, fundamentally bullish backdrop for US risk assets.
Listeners can hear more on this topic:​
• Metals & mining: meltdown or opportunity?
• Is US equities exceptionalism finally cracking?
Clients can read more on Barclays Live:
• Framework for Modeling AI Demand & Supply – Capex 'Peak' Likely in 2028
• Energy Sigma - Snowball effect
• Equity Market Review - Waiting for the Trump put
• The Long & Short of It - Conflict hits, conviction slips

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